The consequences of a Greek default are being gauged by thought leaders in world financial capitals.Komal Sri-Kumar,Chief Global Strategist at TCW,says that,if Europe crashes,you're looking at the banking system being under very severe strain.As long as that is unknown,I think you're looking at a bit of trouble here.
Moody's,the ratings agency,downgraded the creditworthiness of two of France's three largest banks,Societe Generale and Credit Agricole,because of their exposure to Greek debt.The third bank,BNP Paribas,escaped the demotion.
You cannot just have Greece defaulting and everybody else doing fine.Greece defaulting will cause a series of defaults.If that happens,the impact on the U.S. economy and market will come from the financial system.It's gonna be even more difficult to get a mortgage in the U.S. because the Federal Housing Finance Agency is suing the big banks.
Dr.Kumar has said he believes we are already in a recession.He's staying with high grade fixed income for the next 2-3 months;after that,it's defensive stocks.
TCW,the Trust Company of the West,offers institutions and individuals a broad range of investment strategies.Since 1971,it has been committed to serving its clients through fundamental research and superior customer service.
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