East Asia:Facing the Missile Threat

The Atlantic Council recently brought together a number of thought leaders at its fourth annual Global Missile Defense Conference in Washington on 28 May.
We face a big threat and a small threat in East Asia,said David Gompert,RAND Corporation Adjunct Senior Fellow and former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence from 2009-10.North Korea is the small threat.I don't think North Korea will be suicidal with nuclear weapons,but would use them as their best option.Their reflex is to strike out when under severe pressure,so we cannot have confidence in adequate deterrence.
South Korea,Japan and the US are threatened by expansion of the short and medium range missile threat.This calls for a trilateral approach:an adequate,integrated trilateral missile defence.The US should hammer home there is little room for error in the adequacy of missile defence.
Both the US and South Korea agreed to the four d's:detect,disrupt,degrade and destroy.Japanese Prime Minister Abe appreciates the threat from North Korean missiles.That's why they're going from four to eight Aegis destroyers;the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle;upgrading of F-15s;procuring point defence for the 20-30 km range.*
China is the big problem.They believe in a minimal defence.China gets upset about any upgrade of defence in its area.
We do need a bigger rethink of information to enable us to make decisions before a crisis occurs.To defend our forces in the Pacific against China's short and medium range missiles is mind-boggling.China has too many upgrades that they haven't yet pursued.I worry less about the ICBMs than the expansion of the short and medium range arsenals.We need greater trilateral contingency planning.We need to help overcome political hurdles.
Taiwan needs to acquire an anti-access area denial strategy to deal with mines and submarines.*
North Korea has lots of artillery and rockets.Ballistic missiles could reach well into South Korea,but the aspect of Weapons of Mass Destruction is the greater concern.*
China's conventional ballistic and cruise missiles are the core of its power projection,added Randall Schriver,former Deputy Secretary of State for East Asia.*
We really don't know how useful and effective the new rail gun and laser technologies will be,so we can't rely on them to counter the threat,Patrick Cronin of the Center for a New American Security pointed out.*
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