Thursday, January 29, 2015
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Searching For Yield:Bank Loans,Gold and IBM
We think ultimately rates are going to be heading higher,said Mark Kiesel,PIMCO CIO and co-manager of the firm's iconic income fund,the Total Return Fund.You're better off investing in bank loans at 4-5% yield.You're not going to get that with bonds today.It's also a sign of global disinflation.With bank loans,you're investing in a structure that protects you.MGM and Hilton are offering 4-5% on bank loans.
As of 9-26,we've outperformed about 90% internationally at the Total Return Fund.TIPS,or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities,are very cheap,favouring international markets like Brazil and Mexico.We have a great story at Total Return Fund.
Morningstar Associates gives the Total Return Fund three out of four stars and considers it to be world class.
Bank loans in the form of mortgage-backed securities are commonly in the portfolios of income funds,including the Total Return Fund.*
Most of the damage done by the Swiss central bank,which of a sudden lifted a three-year-old cap on the Swiss franc, probably occurred in retail debts.I don't think there will be anything untoward that happened to US banks.I think it just causes greater disrespect for central banks generally,said Dennis Gartman,editor of The Gartman Letter.
I've been long gold and short euros,and that's been very beneficial.I see no reason to think that strong gold's going to change.The Swiss move is going to be detrimental to their currencies and strong to gold.*
IBM reported earnings per share of 5.81,in line with the estimate.Revenue was 24.11 billion,falling a bit short of the 24.77 billion estimate.Currency fluctuations and divestitures hurt their revenue.I think it's a step in the right direction,said Daniel Ives of FBR Capital Markets.Can this company succeed in the cloud?The outlook going forward is really the elephant in the room for investors.Given the playbook,it's about IBM giving investors comfort in the cloud transition.*
PIMCO Total Return Fund Class A(PTTAX),International Business Machines(IBM),Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX)
As of 9-26,we've outperformed about 90% internationally at the Total Return Fund.TIPS,or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities,are very cheap,favouring international markets like Brazil and Mexico.We have a great story at Total Return Fund.
Morningstar Associates gives the Total Return Fund three out of four stars and considers it to be world class.
Bank loans in the form of mortgage-backed securities are commonly in the portfolios of income funds,including the Total Return Fund.*
Most of the damage done by the Swiss central bank,which of a sudden lifted a three-year-old cap on the Swiss franc, probably occurred in retail debts.I don't think there will be anything untoward that happened to US banks.I think it just causes greater disrespect for central banks generally,said Dennis Gartman,editor of The Gartman Letter.
I've been long gold and short euros,and that's been very beneficial.I see no reason to think that strong gold's going to change.The Swiss move is going to be detrimental to their currencies and strong to gold.*
IBM reported earnings per share of 5.81,in line with the estimate.Revenue was 24.11 billion,falling a bit short of the 24.77 billion estimate.Currency fluctuations and divestitures hurt their revenue.I think it's a step in the right direction,said Daniel Ives of FBR Capital Markets.Can this company succeed in the cloud?The outlook going forward is really the elephant in the room for investors.Given the playbook,it's about IBM giving investors comfort in the cloud transition.*
PIMCO Total Return Fund Class A(PTTAX),International Business Machines(IBM),Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX)
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
What Investment Professionals Are Looking For-and avoiding
In the hedge fund space,one of the most popular trades has been dollar strength,avoiding energy and shorting it,said Troy Gayeski of Skybridge Capital Partners.Two to three quarters from now,energy distressed credit will be sought.Six months ago,private equity was raising money to invest in energy.
Volatility has expanded dramatically since QE was ended.There will be stock market gains of 3-10% in 2015,but with increased volatility as Fed tightening begins.*
German,Japanese and Swiss bond yields are very low,notes John Brynjolfsson of the Armored Wolf hedge fund.The US inflation rate is falling,and US bond yields are among the lowest in the world.I previously thought the Fed would move quickly,but we're probably looking at negative inflation rates,and it's almost impossible for the Fed to tighten interest rates with negative inflation.*
We're looking for high quality companies with good returns on capital,added Kevin Tony of American Century Investments.We are classic value investors.LifePoint is a hospital company with a broad footprint throughout the US.We think as people get jobs,or get insurance through Obamacare,hospitals will do well.Waste services company Republic Services Group has a high return on capital and low volatility.*
Intel reported earnings per share of 0.74 versus an estimate of 0.66;while revenue came in at 14.72 billion versus the 14.71 billion estimate.Data center revenue was 4.1 billion,and better than expected.The company's guidance was strong,although it continues to lose money on mobile and the pc client group was down as well.Intel is ranked number two in mobile processing,but since its stock is already up 40%,it will need a lot to push it up further,CNBC's Tim Seymour observed.
LifePoint Hospitals Inc(LPNT),Republic Services Group(RSG),Intel(INTC),American Century Value Fund(TWVLX)
Volatility has expanded dramatically since QE was ended.There will be stock market gains of 3-10% in 2015,but with increased volatility as Fed tightening begins.*
German,Japanese and Swiss bond yields are very low,notes John Brynjolfsson of the Armored Wolf hedge fund.The US inflation rate is falling,and US bond yields are among the lowest in the world.I previously thought the Fed would move quickly,but we're probably looking at negative inflation rates,and it's almost impossible for the Fed to tighten interest rates with negative inflation.*
We're looking for high quality companies with good returns on capital,added Kevin Tony of American Century Investments.We are classic value investors.LifePoint is a hospital company with a broad footprint throughout the US.We think as people get jobs,or get insurance through Obamacare,hospitals will do well.Waste services company Republic Services Group has a high return on capital and low volatility.*
Intel reported earnings per share of 0.74 versus an estimate of 0.66;while revenue came in at 14.72 billion versus the 14.71 billion estimate.Data center revenue was 4.1 billion,and better than expected.The company's guidance was strong,although it continues to lose money on mobile and the pc client group was down as well.Intel is ranked number two in mobile processing,but since its stock is already up 40%,it will need a lot to push it up further,CNBC's Tim Seymour observed.
LifePoint Hospitals Inc(LPNT),Republic Services Group(RSG),Intel(INTC),American Century Value Fund(TWVLX)
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Investment Issues:Fed Policy;China;Oil and Transport
The Fed hasn't learned the lessons of what they did 10 years ago,and I fear they're doing it again,said Stephen Roach,senior fellow at Yale University.Is a one percent rate hike going to restrain the economy?Absolutely not.If anything,the Fed is going to disappoint us in terms of how much it adjusts rates this year.They're in total denial that cheap money and an accommodative policy had anything to do with the train wreck of 08-09.The US really needs export growth as it contemplates the weakness of the American consumer.
I've been completely optimistic on China.It's slowed,but with a slowing that was implemented strategically.China's adamant about going to market-based systems.Defaults are a sign of health in this.
The Fed is fearful of doing its job as a steward of the real economy,Mr.Roach added.*
Volatility has to wring itself out,acording to Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital.The bulls have to make a new high here,or the Dow will slip below 17,000.We've been long TLT,the long Treasury bond etf,all of 2014,but we're getting close to taking some off the table.We're going to have oil in the 40s;eventually,we're going to have oil in the 60s.
If the historic trend following such a steep oil price decline is followed,CNBC floor reporter Bob Pisani pointed out,oil will be at 75.00 in the second half of the year.*
Actually,I think the decline in oil prices is going to help us,said CSX chairman and CEO Michael Ward.It's good for the consumer.We're seeing the volumes continue the same as they were before the decline.We fully pass on the lower fuel prices to our customers,based on the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.We were up about six percent in carloads.We see an uptick in virtually every market we serve.We expect to grow beyond the rate of the economy.There are some issues on the west coast now,but over time that may create more shipments through the east coast,the railroad executive explained.*
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT),CSX Transportation(CSX)
I've been completely optimistic on China.It's slowed,but with a slowing that was implemented strategically.China's adamant about going to market-based systems.Defaults are a sign of health in this.
The Fed is fearful of doing its job as a steward of the real economy,Mr.Roach added.*
Volatility has to wring itself out,acording to Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital.The bulls have to make a new high here,or the Dow will slip below 17,000.We've been long TLT,the long Treasury bond etf,all of 2014,but we're getting close to taking some off the table.We're going to have oil in the 40s;eventually,we're going to have oil in the 60s.
If the historic trend following such a steep oil price decline is followed,CNBC floor reporter Bob Pisani pointed out,oil will be at 75.00 in the second half of the year.*
Actually,I think the decline in oil prices is going to help us,said CSX chairman and CEO Michael Ward.It's good for the consumer.We're seeing the volumes continue the same as they were before the decline.We fully pass on the lower fuel prices to our customers,based on the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.We were up about six percent in carloads.We see an uptick in virtually every market we serve.We expect to grow beyond the rate of the economy.There are some issues on the west coast now,but over time that may create more shipments through the east coast,the railroad executive explained.*
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT),CSX Transportation(CSX)
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
What Investors Should Consider for the New Year
The case for favouring European stocks is based on:
1.their attracive valuation
2.the ECB being ready to pour on aid
3.a weaker euro.
On the other hand,Greece is a big risk and could be a substantial challenge for Europe.Also,
1.US companies have less exposure to Russia and Ukraine.
2.They have cash for dividends.
3.The banking system is strengthening,points out Mohammed El-Erian of Allianz.*
I wouldn't be surprised to see increased volatility for the first six-nine months of the year,says JJ Kinahan of TD Ameritrade.The nice thing is,maybe the greater volatility will help clients realise you don't have to own something forever.I would say one thing:you don't have to buy the bottom.Be very careful of the falling knife.*
John Kilduff,founding partner of Again Capital,notes that,in light of energy market conditions,oil company property and the oil beneath it is going to have to be revalued,cutting the borrowing base.The commodities are so out of favour.David Tice,CFA,founder of the Federated Prudent Bear Fund,adds that Iraq and Russia production came back,along with fracking coming on line.We love the gold mining stocks.Their biggest cost is energy;therefore they are levitating.The price of gold has almost doubled since June,and you can't print money as your way to prosperity.*
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX),Federated Prudent Bear Fund(A)(BEARX)
1.their attracive valuation
2.the ECB being ready to pour on aid
3.a weaker euro.
On the other hand,Greece is a big risk and could be a substantial challenge for Europe.Also,
1.US companies have less exposure to Russia and Ukraine.
2.They have cash for dividends.
3.The banking system is strengthening,points out Mohammed El-Erian of Allianz.*
I wouldn't be surprised to see increased volatility for the first six-nine months of the year,says JJ Kinahan of TD Ameritrade.The nice thing is,maybe the greater volatility will help clients realise you don't have to own something forever.I would say one thing:you don't have to buy the bottom.Be very careful of the falling knife.*
John Kilduff,founding partner of Again Capital,notes that,in light of energy market conditions,oil company property and the oil beneath it is going to have to be revalued,cutting the borrowing base.The commodities are so out of favour.David Tice,CFA,founder of the Federated Prudent Bear Fund,adds that Iraq and Russia production came back,along with fracking coming on line.We love the gold mining stocks.Their biggest cost is energy;therefore they are levitating.The price of gold has almost doubled since June,and you can't print money as your way to prosperity.*
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX),Federated Prudent Bear Fund(A)(BEARX)
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Thursday, January 1, 2015
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