Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning,holding forth with some well-informed views on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his policies,as well as NATO's response to them.Dr.Gates served as Secretary of Defense from 2006-11 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.Before that,he was a US Air Force officer and then served as Director of Central Intelligence under President George H.W. Bush from 1991-3,among other positions.He is currently Chancellor of the College of William & Mary.*
I had a number of opportunities to interact with Mr.Putin when I was in office,Dr.Gates said.We have similar backgrounds.I told him that while he was a lieutenant colonel in the KGB,I was Deputy Director of the CIA.What he has been most affected by was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire.Ukraine has been part of that for a very long time.He is all about lost power,lost glory,lost empire.He aspires to:
1.Restore Russia to great power status,so that nothing may be done without Russia's involvement and approval;
2.To create a buffer of friendly or at least frozen states on the borders of Russia,such as Eastern Ukraine.
I think that he will be very opportunistic in pressing these objectives,but he is not a madman;and if he meets some difficulties and resistance along the way,he will pull back.In Syria,he wants to keep the Russian naval base at Tartus and the Russian military presence there.He isn't set on keeping President Bashar al-Assad in office;he would be willing to replace him with someone acceptable to Russia at the appropriate time.If he also has the opportunity to poke the United States in the eye,he will not miss that opportunity.
He has a lot more forces on the Ukrainian border than we or NATO have or can put on the opposite side.His limit is in the Middle East,where he is farther away and has a long supply line.We should decide what we want to do in Syria and just tell the Russians this is what we want to do and stay out of the way,such as our establishing a safe haven in Northern Syria.I think he knows exactly what he's doing and,at least in the short or medium term,he's been successful at it.*
Every decade has a variety of challenges.I think it's fair to say we have not had so many challenges in as many parts of the world as we do today.*
I agree with the NATO steps that have been taken to increase the US presence in Europe.The idea of prepositioning equipment sets has a lot of merit.I think I would work very closely with our NATO partners on considering the wisdom of having permanent US troops in Poland or the Baltics.There's always a risk of taking it a step too far.Enhancing the air patrolling and responding to Russian violations,regular NATO exercises-Putin has provoked all of this.He has created enough alarm that our Allies want to participate in these forward operations in Europe with us.I remember a time when they wanted nothing to do with it.Putin has a lot more forces in Europe than NATO,with a lot shorter supply line.*
Russia has been interested in getting out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty for several years.Even in my time,the Russian Defence Minister approached me saying we are the only two countries who can't deploy INFs.It would not surprise me in the least if they went ahead with it,Dr.Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday morning.
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