General John F. Campbell,US Army,commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,provided one of his periodic updates on the Afghan War to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.If the current plan to cut US troop levels there down to 1,000 by the end of 2016 goes ahead,our ability to provide train,advise and assist would be very limited,General Campbell said.Just from Kabul,I couldn't do a counterterror mission.
1.We need to continue to build the Afghan capacity for their CT element.It's going to take time to be able to raise it.
2.To have a CT capability to keep pressure on some of the ungoverned spaces.Our CT forces are the best in the world.They welcome us there.Their Par One Prison is the gold standard for terrorist prisons.*
We're seeing a switch of Taliban in Pakistan to ISIL.Pakistani General Raheel Sharif and I spoke as late as last week.He said ISIL has no place in Pakistan.I believe he is genuine and is pushing his army and intel to fight Daesh (the Arab term for ISIL).We put Daesh in the category of operationally emergent in Afghanistan,with them putting in a base in Nangarhar Province.Afghan President Ghani is concerned,and Daesh is a priority information requirement for me.We're trying to partner Pakistan and Afghanistan to look at it.The open press estimates there are anywhere between 1,000-3,000 Daesh in Afghanistan.*
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have really impacted the Taliban this year,based on the casualties we've seen.For the police element,the number one issue is to get the right leadership.There are many police without training that have been hired.I believe that training is the key.In many cases,they're doing the same thing as the Army,without being manned and equipped like the Army.*
The Allies that I've engaged with,for the most part,are very supportive.Once the US makes the decision to keep more troops in Afghanistan,we'll see NATO come into that-absolutely.
It becomes a matter of physics.Every single day,we continue to de-scope our bases out there.I've also made sure it's not irreversible.This is a very critical year for 2016.The NATO Warsaw conference will decide their troop commitments for 2016-20.*
I provided my senior leadership with courses of action based on the changes that have happened the last few years:the growth of Daesh;the actions by Pakistan;the new Afghan leadership of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah.We've built the Afghans an Army and police they cannot afford.They're going to need the help of the international community.We need a year and a half to train,advise and assist the ANDSF.
In all of our courses of action,my senior leadership would have an irreversible decision point.We are overwhelmingly welcomed by the Afghan leadership and civilians.Presence equals influence.They will continue to want a coalition presence.They understand that we've provided a lot of blood,sweat and tears,and don't want to let us down.Based on what's happened since 2014,I believe we still have to do TAA for aviation,logistics,intel and special operations.The conditions on the ground have changed,and we need to look at the pros and cons of that.
I think everyone's looking at Daesh to make sure it doesn't grow to the lengths it has in Iraq and Syria.Upwards of 20-30% of Taliban are irreconcilable;Daesh is irreconcilable at this point in time.We've got to continue to move toward a peace process with the Taliban.Coalition presence has a great impact on President Ghani,the ANDSF,the people.Deciding on a larger coalition force would have a huge impact there.Afghanistan will continue to be a very dangerous place,and the ANDSF will continue to be challenged.You absolutely need to operate from a position of strength to pursue the reconciliation process there.*
Their close air support is just starting to grow.Starting at the end of the year,they will start to have a fixed wing capability,but it will be 2017-18 before it is fully online.Whenever you put a time on something,you always give somebody a chance to manipulate that.To get down to 1,000 US troops by the end of 2016,you would have to start in January,General Campbell advised the Senate Armed Services Committee.
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