Around a War-torn Region,Part 2:CENTCOM Commander Briefs Congress on the Strategic Road Ahead

US Army General Joseph L. Votel,Commander,US Central Command,continued to brief the House Armed Services Committee on 27 February 2018 on the challenges CENTCOM faces in its massive Area of Responsibility:
We do maintain a constant presence in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,into the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman as well,and through our very close partnership with our partners.We have three combined maritime task forces that are led out of our naval headquarters in Bahrain,that include a variety of different nations.I think that this is a very key way for us to maintain our influence and pursue our interests in the CENTCOM maritime environment.*
In the Bab el Mandeb Strait,60-70 ships a day go through it.Mining is a very real threat that we have to pay attention to,using our intelligence and experience to help our partners Saudi Arabia and the UAE to optimise their capabilities.We absolutely do have intelligence assets on the Bab el Mandeb,and I would be very glad to go into the details with you in a different setting.*
In Afghanistan this season,our intention is to grab the initiative,break the stalemate and begin to expand population control in this year and next (the Taliban currently have 12% of the population under their control,while the Afghan government has 64% of the population,and the rest is contested),and then ensure that we create an environment for credible elections to take place.It's one of the most important things that the Afghan people need to see from their government.
It's very clear that the majority of the ISR (Intelligence,Surveillance and Reconnaissance) in the region is being provided by the United States.We have the largest concentration of MQ-9s (drones) down at Kandahar Airfield  to support General Nicholson and his forces,and that's adequate for what he needs right now;but,given his druthers,I'm sure that he would want more,and so we would want more in all these areas.The faster that we can continue to provide those capabilities,the better.*
I am concerned that these areas in the Southwest of Syria are becoming collection zones of
unsavoury elements,and eventually they will have to be dealt with.I am concerned that these will become bigger problems.In places like Idlib,these groups that have come together do potentially pose long-term challenges for the security of the region,above and beyond Syria,General Votel told the Members of Congress on Capitol Hill last month.

Patriarch John X Sends Message Born of the East

Once again,Patriarch John X of Antioch and All the East has sent out a Christmas encyclical with his customary eloquence and paternal regard for his worldwide flock,who,wherever they may have wandered,are spiritually rooted in the Middle East.Here are some excerpts that speak so powerfully in their language of prayer and sacred memory:
By God's Grace,His Beatitude John X
Patriarch of Antioch and of All the East
It is about time that darkness may be scattered from the East and for the people of the East to live in peace on earth in their birthplace.It is about time for wars to cease in the land where Christ was born and from which heavenly religions were launched.The message of our East is one of freedom,peace,and of open hearts to the entire world.Neither is there any trace of Takfirism and violence,abandonment and terrorism,in our past and present time.We pray that the light of the cave will cast away the darkness of wars to instill in the minds of all people that our region is not an open market to sell arms,and that the destiny of our people should not end dead on the shores of other nations.*
We offer prayers today for the peace in Syria,for the stability of Lebanon,for the safety of Palestine,and for the welfare of the bleeding Iraq;for every spot and all peoples.We offer our prayers for Jerusalem and for its sacred shrines and institutions so Jerusalem may continue to be the city of prayers.We offer our prayers for all those who are captives;especially for the two hierarchs:Metropolitan Paul Yazigy and Archbishop Youhanna Ibrahim.We pray for the kidnapped,homeless,and those who live in travail.*
And we remember the East during these difficult days,we shall never ignore the active Antiochian presence throughout the world.We pray that Christ the Child will bestow His mercies on the entire world and on all our spiritual children of the Antiochian See,in the Middle East and the entire world.*
From the heart of the church of Antioch to the hearts of all people,we extend to you the best greetings in the name of Christ who is born in Bethlehem.We can indeed recall that Christianity was born in the East,and lived together fraternally with the others,and that the Christian Church of Antioch stretches her hands and embraces all her children,and is proud of them,wherever they are,for through them and by their active presence,the Antiochian Church carries the gospel of Christ and its message of the good news to the entire world.
Issued from our Patriarchal Headquarters
Damascus,Syria
December 20,2017

Joint Paschal Encyclical Issued by Syriac Orthodox,Greek Orthodox Patriarchs of Antioch

A joint paschal encyclical letter has been issued by two Patriarchs of Antioch,His Holiness Mor Ignatius Aphrem II;and His Beatitude John X,the Syriac Orthodox and Greek Orthodox Patriarchs of Antioch and All the East,respectively.This was done in light of the grave crisis of war and terrorism enveloping the region,the Holy Land of Christ's birth,life,death and resurrection,which therefore has a place in the hearts of all Christians.Here are some memorable excerpts from this extraordinary missive:
Beloved spiritual brethren and children:
Christ is risen,truly He is risen.
Christ is risen and the East is bleeding.Christ is risen and our people of all faiths pay with their own lives the cost exacted by selfish interest.Christ is risen and the destiny of our brothers-archbishops Paul and John-is still unclear.Pascha falls this year close to the day of their abduction,the twenty-second of April.This fourth anniversary is perhaps the most appropriate time for us to raise our voice once more,and to put in the ears of our believers and of all the world the voice of our pain in the Church of Antioch,and the voice of all those who are afflicted in this East.*
We are being crucified in this East,suffering this great ordeal.The world looks at the cross of our agony,and is satisfied merely by expressing grief over us.Nevertheless,the power of this world will not drive us out of our land,because we are the sons of the cross and the resurrection.We have been displaced throughout history,and we are still being displaced to this day;but each of us is called to remember that the land of Christ will not be emptied of His beloved ones;and of those who were named after Him two thousand years ago.*
We are deeply rooted in the womb of this East.We are determined not to leave our land;furthermore,we will defend it with our own blood and lives.*
There is a war,unfortunately,imposed upon us as Syrians;and there are consequences that burden us as Lebanese.And there is a price which we pay as Easterners all over the Middle East stemming from the results of all wars,as though bets are being wagered on our land.Our summons today reflects upon events,as we cry enough!into the face of those who feed our land with terrorism,takfirism and blind extremism.Our summons today is a cry enough!in the face of those who finance the terrorist;but feign blindness to his existence,and later rush to fight him,or to make a claim to fight him.
In this Holy Paschal season,we supplicate the risen Lord to remove the stone from our hearts and to break with His spear the war of this world.In these holy days,we pray again for our abducted archbishops,repeating our call for their release.*
On this occasion,we call on everyone,here and abroad,to work hard toward the liberation of the Archbishops of Aleppo and toward closing of this case,which has been suspended by international amnesia.However,this issue is always present in our souls and in the souls of all our children,Christian and Muslim,as well as all those of good will.*
We are in the days of remembering the resurrection of Christ,even though mingled with a heartache that has not been healed for four years.We pray today to the risen Lord to instill His hope in our hearts,granting to them His Holy Spirit;and bestowing upon us the gift of the release of all the kidnapped,so that we may always cry:
Christ is risen and the angels are exultant.
Jesus is risen and the bars of Hades are destroyed.
Christ is risen and life is renewed;to whom is due all glory and dominion unto ages of ages.Amen.
Christ is risen,truly He is risen.
Damascus,April 14,2017.

Air and Artillery Strikes Hit ISIL Targets in Syria,Iraq

Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve continued to strike the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant on 3 January in both Syria and Iraq,a news release said.In Syria,among the 21 strikes by attack,bomber,fighter and remotely piloted aircraft on the Islamist extremists were:
Near Shedaddi,three strikes destroyed a vehicle bomb;a vehicle bomb storage facility and a fighting position;and damaged a repeater box and a communications tower.
Near Raqqah,seven strikes destroyed a vehicle bomb;a vehicle bomb storage facility;a weapons cache and 11 fighting positions;and suppressed a tactical unit.*
In Iraq,among the six strikes by attack,bomber,fighter and remotely piloted aircraft and rocket artillery conducted with and in support of Iraq's government on the ISIL militants were:
Near Hawayjah,two strikes destroyed a pickup truck and vehicle bomb storage facility.
Near Mosul,three strikes destroyed two mortars;a tactical vehicle and two command and control nodes;damaged two supply routes and suppressed nine mortar teams and a tactical unit.*
Those who have conducted strikes in Iraq include the US;Australia;Belgium;Canada;Denmark;France;Jordan;the Netherlands;and the UK.
Those who have conducted strikes in Syria include the US;Australia;Bahrain;Canada;France;Jordan;the Netherlands;Saudi Arabia;Turkey;the UAE;and the UK.

Patriarch of Antioch John X Stirs Patriotism,Hope

His Beatitude John X,Patriarch of Antioch and All the East,has once more written a powerful Christmas message for his flock and indeed the whole Orthodox world looking on with interest.In it,the Patriarch firmly roots their faith in their homeland of the Levant,which is today defined as the Eastern Mediterranean and its countries and islands Israel;Palestine;Cyprus;Syria;Lebanon;part of Southern Turkey;and Jordan.His Beatitude also promises redemption from the horrendous suffering which they have felt there because of this faith.Here are some memorable excerpts:
With the mercy of God John X
The Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and all the East
To my brethren the pastors of the holy Antiochian Church
To my sons wherever they may be in this Apostolic See*
He came to lay His seal on our hearts so as to cling and adhere to Him and defend our homeland and get deeply rooted in it;to be rooted in our cities,villages and mountains,in the first land,the land of the church of Antioch that then spread the word "Christians" to the whole world.*
We are called to know that the hardest circumstances would not take out from our hearts and our ancestors' a confession other than we received and preserved.We are written down for the sake of Christ.And we received our baptism 2,000 years ago,so we do not need anybody to convert us to Christianity.*
The peace of Christ is first of all a consolation that cures our hardships;it is not a magical substance that takes away the yoke of suffering from us.
Our prayer on this blessed day is for peace in Syria,for settlement in Lebanon and for prosperity in the East.
Our prayer on this blessed day is for Palestine,for Iraq,and for every spot where people have undergone pain and suffering.For more than five years,the Christian Antiochian Church has been crucified by means of pain and suffering that have come out of barbarism,terror,violence and a stifling economic siege.For more than three years the world has been watching the Golgotha of this East,by that I mean bishops to be abducted,priests to be killed,and many other people to be displaced.But this pain and agony shall be broken by the dawn of the resurrection,and by the big stone of the empty tomb being rolled away no matter how long the Golgotha may last.*

Extremists in Decline:Pentagon Cites Losses by ISIL,al-Qaida

The tide is turning against the Islamist extremists of ISIL and al-Qaida,according to Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook,who briefed reporters on 19 December 2016.Over the weekend,the Libyan Government of National Accord announced the successful conclusion of the campaign to liberate the city of Sirte from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,Mr.Cook noted.It was the only city outside of Iraq and Syria under ISIL's control.US Africa Command carried out this mission with particular skill,especially limiting the risk of civilian casualties in carrying out airstrikes in Sirte,Mr.Cook pointed out.We will continue to keep a close eye on the remnants of ISIL in Libya and will continue to assist the GNA as appropriate going forward.*
In Iraq,Mr.Cook said,the Iraqi Security Forces continue to degrade ISIL in Mosul,where the ISF has cleared approximately 20% of the city.
In Syria,the Syrian Democratic Forces rebel group have reached the Euphrates River northwest of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa,which is important as the SDF try to isolate ISIL within Raqqa.Importantly,the SDF is continuing to attract Arab fighters for continuing the fight against ISIL.*
And finally,on the progress of counterterrorism in Afghansitan,we previously announced on October 23 that a precision airstrike near Kunar,Afghanistan killed Faruq al-Qatani,the al-Qaida emir for Eastern Afghanistan.The Department has now determined that the same airstrike killed two additional senior al-Qaida leaders:Bilal al-Utaybi,who was al-Qatani's deputy;and Abd al-Wahd al-Junabi,a senior al-Qaida explosives expert.All three were actively involved in the planning and carrying out of acts of terror inside and outside Afghanistan.The deaths of these three senior leaders will significantly disrupt the group's ability to threaten the US,our interests and our allies,and highlights our continuing commitment to the counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan.This strike is further evidence that those who seek to do us harm are not beyond our reach,Peter Cook concluded at the Pentagon on Monday.

Assisi Hosts Pope and Patriarchs on World Day of Prayer for Peace

Their Holinesses Pope Francis,Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew,Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Aphrem II,His Grace Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and other religious leaders gathered at Assisi,Italy for the World Day of Prayer for Peace in the Basilica of St.Francis.On a day blessed with clear and sunny skies,the leaders paused to reflect on the numerous wars and conflicts afflicting the world today and beseech God for an end to them.Their was a special emphasis on the Middle East in general and Syria in particular,as well as on the case of the abducted Archbishops of Aleppo in Syria,Greek Orthodox Paul Yazigi and Syriac Orthodox Mor Yohanna Gregorius Ibrahim,who were kidnapped at gunpoint by unknown extremists more than three years ago.
The four hierarchs greeted a number of pilgrims in the cloisters of the Franciscan monastery before assembling with a congregation in the lower Basilica of St.Francis,where the saint is entombed,for a Christian prayer service.At the same time,Muslims and other believers assembled at separate locations to pray according to their own traditions.Finally,all assembled in the Basilica courtyard for final reflections.The Day of Prayer was preceded by a number of other peace discussions and events beginning on Monday.
At one point in the Christian prayer service,an alphabetised list of world conflict zones was read.Each location was remembered with the chant "Kyrie eleison,"which is "Lord have mercy" in Greek,and a candle was lit.From Afghanistan to Mexico,to Yemen and the Holy Land,dozens of violent regions were prayerfully recognised.
To conclude the Christian service,each of the four hierarchs participated in a four-part benediction,or blessing.

US Commandos Active in Northern Syria

The first of 250 more US Special Operations Forces,in addition to the 50 already there,are arriving in Syria.Agence France-Presse photos show US troops in a Syrian town,bearded and in the back of a pickup truck mounted with a MK 47 Striker grenade launcher.Other photos show them patrolling the village of Fatisah with their weapons.Some wore Kurdish Forces patches.They were north of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa advising and assisting the Syrian Democratic Forces who are Kurds,Arabs and Turkomen,in the struggle against ISIL.*
The Kurdish patches were a sign of partnership and solidarity,said Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Colonel Steve Warren,US Army.*
Baraa Al-Ghanem,Commander SDF,said that US troops are present at all positions along the front.They are taking part on the ground and in the air.*
The US SOFs have advanced and costly communications equipment and non-traditional small arms,as well as unique camouflage patterns and their low profile helmets.

The US,Germany and NATO - the bilateral piece of the security puzzle

On 24 April,President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a news conference in Hannover,Germany.The President gave a readout of their bilateral talks on the occasion of the first visit of an American president to Hannover:
Most of our discussions,as Chancellor Merkel indicated,focused on urgent security challenges,Mr.Obama said.Germany is a valued member of the coalition to destroy ISIL.German aircraft support the campaign and German personnel in Iraq are training local forces.German assistance is helping Iraq stabilise and rebuild the areas it liberates from ISIL and our coalition continues to make progress.
Today we discussed additional steps that NATO could take to support the campaign,as well as economic assistance to Iraq that the G7 could pledge at next month's summit in Japan.Germany is obviously a very strong partner in the effort to provide humanitarian relief to the people of Syria and Iraq.We remain deeply concerned about the upsurge of fighting in Syria in recent days,and we continue to agree that the only real solution is a political solution that moves Syria toward an inclusive government that represents all Syrians.
Given the horrific attacks that we've seen around the world,including Paris,Brussels,Istanbul and San Bernardino,California-and on a much more frequent basis we've seen violence and attacks that's taking place in the Middle East-we discussed the importance of maintaining our strong security cooperation.In Afghanistan,we'll continue to help strengthen Afghan forces as they continue to push back against al-Qaida,the Taliban and ISIL.We'll continue to support the Libyan people and the new Libyan government as it seeks to extend security across its country.We agreed that the US and Germany are going to remain very strong counterintelligence and intelligence partners,and we're committed to using all the tools at our disposal to prevent terrorists from traveling and plotting attacks-and that includes improved information-sharing between our countries and within Europe-and,as always,we'll do so while upholding our values and civil liberties,inculding the privacy of citizens here and in the US.
I want to once again commend Angela for her courageous leadership in the response to migrants who are fleeing the Syrian conflict and conflicts elsewhere in the region.Perhaps because she once lived behind a wall herself,Angela understands the aspirations of those who've been denied their freedom and who seek a better life.And I know the politics around this issue can be difficult in all of our countries.We did discuss the EU's recent agreement with Turkey and Angela and I agreed that our nations can respond to that challenge in a way thatmis both humane and ensures our security.
And finally,as we look ahead to this summer's NATO summit in Warsaw,we discussed the importance of keeping the alliance strong with the investments that's needed for or collective defence.We continue to augment,on a rotational basis,NATO forces in Eastern Europe,including the Baltic States.As I've said since the very beginning of my presidency,we have a treaty obligation to defend every NATO member-and we will.Beyond the alliance,we welcome the formation of a new government in Ukraine,which we encourage to continue the political,economic and energy reforms that can deliver progress for the Ukrainian people.Chancellor Merkel,along with President Hollande,have been tireless in their pursuit of a peaceful anddurable solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine,and we agreed that all sides need to uphold the commitments they have made,and that sanctions against Russia can and should be lifted only when Russia fully complies with its commitments under the Minsk agreement,the President said.*
For her part,Chancellor Merkel said that Germany has become a more active partner,I think one can safely say,because we are also threatened.Our own security is threatened and we realise that we cannot ensure this on our own.We have to do this in our alliance,and in certain areas we have shouldered a long-term mission that we're going to continue-if we look at Afghansitan,for example.In a way, we've had a change of paradigm in the sense that we see this challenge of IS as something that is very acute,so we send weapons into a conflict area;we gave them to the Peshmerga-a completely new step compared to our past policies.
Looking at the terrorist threat-against France,for example-we've shouldered responsibility for a mission in Northern Africa,which is also a new thing as well,leaving the Congo mission aside where we spent some time;but if we meet in Germany,if we meet at the G7,or,again,in Warsaw-we shall have other opportunities to meet,the President and I-we shall address all of these issues,so,let me say for me,the future with this president is much more important than the past right now.We know that we obviously have to make additional efforts as regards our possibilities to defend ourselves;we have to put in more equipment,more personnel;we know the targets NATO has submitted to us;we think that the whole positioning of our Federal Armed Forces reflects fully the sense that we need to shoulder this national responsibility also as regards,for example,cyber threats-something that we've neglected to do over the past years.And I think that it helps-it helps us to tackle the challenges and to master them,and the cooperation with the US is indispensable.Looking at the larger neighbourhood of Europe,the transatlantic cooperation within NATO,but also other fora,is also highly essential for maintaining or own security and safety,Mrs.Merkel noted.

War On ISIL Update:Operation Tidal Wave II;French Airstrikes

The US-led Operation Inherent Resolve coalition has undertaken a systematic bombing campaign to deprive the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant of its revenue from Syrian oil fields.The effort is called Operation Tidal Wave II,named for the World War II operation in which US aircraft bombed nine Romanian oil refineries.As part of the campaign,OIR aircraft attacked a number of tanker trucks recently that were waiting to fill up outside an oil facility,destroying 116 of the tankers.The truck drivers themselves are probably not members of ISIL,said US Army Colonel Steve Warren of Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve in a press briefing,so we developed leaflets to drop to them and made low passes to shoo people away.We decided it is in our interest to go strike these trucks.Oil funds more than 50% of ISIL operations.It was a long process of analysis and discussion,and finally we reached the decision.It was a US CENTCOM commander decision.
The trucks we hit were queued up in the vicinity of one of these oil facilities we had been striking.There was a backlog and they were just sitting there.It was a pretty straightforward attack.The aircraft expended 24 500 lb. bombs and all their ammuntion.Some civilians ran from the trucks into a tent.They were legitimate military targets,but-just to show what we're about-the pilots decided they didn't need to strike them.
The trucks are just one link in the chain.What we've done in Operation Tidal Wave II is break every link in this chain.This was not a piecemeal execution.It was a sudden strike that swept across these oil fields.Their problem now is trying to find out how to fix their broken oil wells.*
ISIL's decision to start expanding their operations outside their borders is something that should concern everyone.That's why we're here;it's why the 65-nation coalition has come together to try to defeat it.I don't know if our campaign has caused that.*
Manjib Pocket is ISIL's last border crossing from Syria into Turkey.There are no US troops on the Turkish side conducting operations.We are working with the Turks to help them ultimately seal that border.*
We supplied the anti-ISIL Syrian Arab Coalition with ammunition about two months ago.We've made a decision not to announce further support,other than to say we reinforce success.*
The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is steaming on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean now.We don't have a specific arrival date.We're encouraged by the fact that the Charles de Gaulle is en route to that theatre.The Charles de Gaulle is supporting the US-led coalition.We do expect the French contribution to OIR to grow.
I don't have a casualty count for the French airstrikes on Raqqa,Syria.They were vetted targets in the slate to get hit eventually.We rarely ever get back battle damage assessments from these preplanned strikes,Colonel Warren noted.

Former SecDef Gates:Putin,Russia and NATO

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning,holding forth with some well-informed views on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his policies,as well as NATO's response to them.Dr.Gates served as Secretary of Defense from 2006-11 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.Before that,he was a US Air Force officer and then served as Director of Central Intelligence under President George H.W. Bush from 1991-3,among other positions.He is currently Chancellor of the College of William & Mary.*
I had a number of opportunities to interact with Mr.Putin when I was in office,Dr.Gates said.We have similar backgrounds.I told him that while he was a lieutenant colonel in the KGB,I was Deputy Director of the CIA.What he has been most affected by was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire.Ukraine has been part of that for a very long time.He is all about lost power,lost glory,lost empire.He aspires to:
1.Restore Russia to great power status,so that nothing may be done without Russia's involvement and approval;
2.To create a buffer of friendly or at least frozen states on the borders of Russia,such as Eastern Ukraine.
I think that he will be very opportunistic in pressing these objectives,but he is not a madman;and if he meets some difficulties and resistance along the way,he will pull back.In Syria,he wants to keep the Russian naval base at Tartus and the Russian military presence there.He isn't set on keeping President Bashar al-Assad in office;he would be willing to replace him with someone acceptable to Russia at the appropriate time.If he also has the opportunity to poke the United States in the eye,he will not miss that opportunity.
He has a lot more forces on the Ukrainian border than we or NATO have or can put on the opposite side.His limit is in the Middle East,where he is farther away and has a long supply line.We should decide what we want to do in Syria and just tell the Russians this is what we want to do and stay out of the way,such as our establishing a safe haven in Northern Syria.I think he knows exactly what he's doing and,at least in the short or medium term,he's been successful at it.*
Every decade has a variety of challenges.I think it's fair to say we have not had so many challenges in as many parts of the world as we do today.*
I agree with the NATO steps that have been taken to increase the US presence in Europe.The idea of prepositioning equipment sets has a lot of merit.I think I would work very closely with our NATO partners on considering the wisdom of having permanent US troops in Poland or the Baltics.There's always a risk of taking it a step too far.Enhancing the air patrolling and responding to Russian violations,regular NATO exercises-Putin has provoked all of this.He has created enough alarm that our Allies want to participate in these forward operations in Europe with us.I remember a time when they wanted nothing to do with it.Putin has a lot more forces in Europe than NATO,with a lot shorter supply line.*
Russia has been interested in getting out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty for several years.Even in my time,the Russian Defence Minister approached me saying we are the only two countries who can't deploy INFs.It would not surprise me in the least if they went ahead with it,Dr.Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday morning.

General Campbell:Too Soon To Depart Afghanistan

General John F. Campbell,US Army,commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,provided one of his periodic updates on the Afghan War to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.If the current plan to cut US troop levels there down to 1,000 by the end of 2016 goes ahead,our ability to provide train,advise and assist would be very limited,General Campbell said.Just from Kabul,I couldn't do a counterterror mission.
1.We need to continue to build the Afghan capacity for their CT element.It's going to take time to be able to raise it.
2.To have a CT capability to keep pressure on some of the ungoverned spaces.Our CT forces are the best in the world.They welcome us there.Their Par One Prison is the gold standard for terrorist prisons.*
We're seeing a switch of Taliban in Pakistan to ISIL.Pakistani General Raheel Sharif and I spoke as late as last week.He said ISIL has no place in Pakistan.I believe he is genuine and is pushing his army and intel to fight Daesh (the Arab term for ISIL).We put Daesh in the category of operationally emergent in Afghanistan,with them putting in a base in Nangarhar Province.Afghan President Ghani is concerned,and Daesh is a priority information requirement for me.We're trying to partner Pakistan and Afghanistan to look at it.The open press estimates there are anywhere between 1,000-3,000 Daesh in Afghanistan.*
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have really impacted the Taliban this year,based on the casualties we've seen.For the police element,the number one issue is to get the right leadership.There are many police without training that have been hired.I believe that training is the key.In many cases,they're doing the same thing as the Army,without being manned and equipped like the Army.*
The Allies that I've engaged with,for the most part,are very supportive.Once the US makes the decision to keep more troops in Afghanistan,we'll see NATO come into that-absolutely.
It becomes a matter of physics.Every single day,we continue to de-scope our bases out there.I've also made sure it's not irreversible.This is a very critical year for 2016.The NATO Warsaw conference will decide their troop commitments for 2016-20.*
I provided my senior leadership with courses of action based on the changes that have happened the last few years:the growth of Daesh;the actions by Pakistan;the new Afghan leadership of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah.We've built the Afghans an Army and police they cannot afford.They're going to need the help of the international community.We need a year and a half to train,advise and assist the ANDSF.
In all of our courses of action,my senior leadership would have an irreversible decision point.We are overwhelmingly welcomed by the Afghan leadership and civilians.Presence equals influence.They will continue to want a coalition presence.They understand that we've provided a lot of blood,sweat and tears,and don't want to let us down.Based on what's happened since 2014,I believe we still have to do TAA for aviation,logistics,intel and special operations.The conditions on the ground have changed,and we need to look at the pros and cons of that.
I think everyone's looking at Daesh to make sure it doesn't grow to the lengths it has in Iraq and Syria.Upwards of 20-30% of Taliban are irreconcilable;Daesh is irreconcilable at this point in time.We've got to continue to move toward a peace process with the Taliban.Coalition presence has a great impact on President Ghani,the ANDSF,the people.Deciding on a larger coalition force would have a huge impact there.Afghanistan will continue to be a very dangerous place,and the ANDSF will continue to be challenged.You absolutely need to operate from a position of strength to pursue the reconciliation process there.*
Their close air support is just starting to grow.Starting at the end of the year,they will start to have a fixed wing capability,but it will be 2017-18 before it is fully online.Whenever you put a time on something,you always give somebody a chance to manipulate that.To get down to 1,000 US troops by the end of 2016,you would have to start in January,General Campbell advised the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Combating ISIL:Where It Stands Now

We are providing the Syrian Kurds with a tremendous amount of air support,said General Lloyd Austin,Commander of US Central Command,at a hearing before the Senate Armed Forces Committee on 16 September.A portion of this element held on in Kobani.They've increased their size and activity and made a significant difference in the Northeast, with the help of the sustained airstrikes they requested.They will also need to partner with the Syrian Arabs in the neighbourhood,and we're helping them with that.
Turkey has shortened the lengths our fighter pilots are forced to fly.They are focused on ISIL elements in Syria,and we have asked them to tighten up their borders to stop the flow of foreign fighters.We will provide air support to our trained fighters and intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance over-watch,and have already done so with our first class of trained fighters.We have undertaken airstrikes for trained Syrians under threat by al-Nusra.What our special operations forces have done in Northern Syria is,they began to train elements like the YPG Kurds.There are ten of thousands of Kurds on the battlefield fighting ISIL.*
Only four or five of our first class of moderate Syrian fighters are in combat now,explained Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth.The others were captured by ISIL or fled from them.Immediately they entered Syria,they were attacked by ISIL.
Note:soon after the hearing,a second class of 75 US-trained Syrian fighters graduated.*
The assessment right now is,the Assad regime is not in immanent danger of falling.We're going to make sure we have the ability to protect ourselves at all times,General Austin added.
1.We remain vigilant.
2.We work in the battlespace in such a way that we avoid conflicted zones as much as possible.
3.We routinely use all of our ISR assets before we use weapons.
4.Our joint tactical air controllers are in the command and control centres.They have visibility of what's going on in the target area and visibility of where the friendly troops are.*
ISIL is a transnational threat,and if left unchecked,it will continue to expand and occupy territory,erase international boundaries and export terror to other parts of the world-and in particular,to places like our homeland.We see the beginning of this in the lone wolf phenomenon,and the threat will continue to increase.
Assad is losing capability every day.The wild card is,if Iran or Russia move in and shore him up,that would extend things for a period of time.We continue to look at what the possibilities for encounters with the Russians are.The Russians have not started operations as of this point.Our pilots have to have certainty that there are ISIL targets that can be engaged.We can see the targets,so that is not an issue.*
In Iraq,we're going to need a greater commitment from the partners we're enabling.I think they want Mosul back;they want to stabilise Anbar first,and then take back Mosul.*
Iraq is starting to open the pipelines as to which units will be trained,said Ms.Wormuth.They are starting to plan for this.There are now 4,000 Sunni fighters in Anbar that weren't there six months ago.*
Our airpower is supporting the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Arabs who are with them.They are not enough to counter ISIL alone.ISIL has made a net gain in personnel over the past 24-36 months,General Austin told the Committee;but they have less money.

Counterattacks Seek To Reverse ISIL's Recent Gains

ISIL has executed 20 Syrian men it accused of being Assad regime soldiers in the ancient Roman theatre ruins of Palmyra,Syria.After ISIL had assembled a crowd in the theatre,the men were shot,according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.The Islamist extremist group had seized the city on 21 May,and has executed at least 217 people so far,the SOHR says,67 of them civilians.There are fears they will also demolish the priceless Roman colonnades and sell off any movable antiquities,as they have done at Iraqi historic sites.
Elsewhere in Syria,the SOHR reports that ISIL has lost ground in Hasakah Province of Northeast Syria.In a 10-day offensive,Kurdish forces early this week liberated 14 Assyrian Christian villages ISIL had seized in February.This was enabled by a major series of air strikes carried out as part of Operation Inherent Resolve by the US and its allies.In the raids from 24-25 May,4 ISIL fighting positions were destroyed,as well as a checkpoint,an excavator,a vehicle borne IED and another vehicle.No civilian casualties were reported from the air strikes.Those participating in the OIR air campaign in Syria include the US,Canada,Bahrain,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Just over the border in Iraq,thousands of Iraqi security forces and allies,including the Hashed al-Shaabi Shiite militias and volunteers,are converging on Ramadi,the capital of Anbar Province that was overrun by ISIL at the same time they seized Palmyra,Syria.The counterattack on Ramadi has already begun,with the ISF retaking the Taesh and Humeyrah districts of the city.They have also entered the Anbar University grounds,but have not yet liberated it from Daesh-the Arab word for ISIL.

Pentagon Announces Training of Moderate Syrian Forces To Fight ISIL

US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter spoke to reporters at the Pentagon last Tuesday,5 May,along with outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey,US Army.Mr.Carter highlighted a number of important issues on the Pentagon's agenda,but especially the new program to train a force of ultimately 15,000 moderate Syrian rebels to engage ISIL in ground combat.
1.Earlier today we met with Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani about the fight with ISIL.We reaffirmed our commitment to working together by,with and through the Iraqi government to deliver a lasting defeat to ISIL.We believe a unified Iraq is critical to this.
2.We have begun training a company-size group from moderate Syrian forces,to be followed by a second group in the next few weeks.
3.Given that the current defence budget is a road to nowhere,we need Congress to agree to a multi-year budget.We are eroding our tech edge and our military readiness is declining.Our adversaries are paying attention,too;they are watching us lurch from continuing resolution to continuing resolution,and they are adapting.
4.We commend the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations and the Trade Promotion Authority bill as strengthening the US and the Asia-Pacific region.
5.We have a lot of work to do in the months ahead.I want to thank General Dempsey for his stong leadership and thoughtful advice.He has made our world safer.I'll really miss him and Vice Chairman Admiral James Winnefeld,US Navy.I have absolute and complete confidence in their sucessors,General Joseph Dunford,US Marine Corps,as Chaiman,and General Paul Selva,US Air Force,as Vice Chairman.*
On the topic of the struggle with ISIL for control of Iraq's Beiji oil refinery,General Dempsey said it's a part of Iraq's critical infrastructure.It's geographically significant.The Iraqis have lost some of the perimeter and some of the road network that leads to it,but just recently the Iraqis configured 18 of the 18 pallets needed to resupply their troops in the refinery by air.*
As to the training of the moderate Syrian rebel forces,Mr.Carter explained that there are about 90 of the trainees in a company-sized tranche.It takes place in a secure location.Our people are very experienced in this type of training.There are several locations,and we'd rather not talk about them.The first disposition of those forces will be decided on by them and us in a few months.Of course we would have some responsibility to protect those forces.We definitely would work to protect them with intelligence,search and rescue,and potentially with air help.We definitely would have some responsibility for their safety as well as their training.
This is a complex program that will have to evolve over time.We're figuring out what the best training is and disposition of the forces is;but you have to start somewhere,and this is where we're starting.There's a limit to the kind of arms this type of force will get.The training is starting now.These trainees are recruited and vetted,and only then are they put into training.These forces are being trained and equipped to fight ISIL.It's not part of our program to have them engage with Assad's forces.ISIL would be their principal mission.We have not determined yet all the rules of engagement.
These Syrian rebel forces do receive some compensation.An explicit part of their training is how to conduct themselves in accordance with international law.ISIL has taken over and mistreated the places from which they came.They have a commitment to the country of Syria as a whole and the place from which they came.
I think we have to take the domestic ISIL threat seriously.It's concerning;it's yet another reason why the defeat of ISIL is so important in Syria and Iraq-that they have the capability to inspire such individuals,Defense Secretary Ashton Carter pointed out to reporters at the Pentagon briefing.

ISIL Defeated In Tirkrit

After a month-long battle,the Iraqi army has retaken the city of Tikrit.With the help of the US-led coalition's air strikes and various militia groups,a major blow has been dealt the ISIL militants.The win is also seen as a significant validation of the ground combat forces' ability to recapture ISIL's biggest gain so far in Iraq,the country's second largest city,Mosul.
Tikrit was heavily booby-trapped by the Islamist extremist group ISIL,whom many Arabs and their friends call Daesh.Many of the abandoned buildings were rigged with explosives.A few pockets of resistance remain,firing potshots now and then.Few civilians have stayed in the war-blasted streets of Tikrit,however,the hometown of the late dictator Saddam Hussein.
At the same time,ISIL has stormed a Palestinian refugee camp in the Syrian capital Damascus,the Yarmouk camp,having fought with a Palestinian faction in the camp.The ISIL militants reportedly now have control of nearly all of the camp,which is home to some 18,000 Palestinian refugees.It is their most serious incursion into Damascus to this point.

Defeating ISIL:Strategic Leadership and the Coalition

ISIL is really operating as a criminal gang and death cult,sending naieve and gullible recruits to die by the hundreds,General John R. Allen,US Marine Corps Retired,Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL,told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 25 February.ISIL has lost one half of its Iraq-based leadership.We actually do have pretty good intelligence in this matter.
The number of ISIL recruits is up because we're tracking them better,and because of the Caliphate's appeal.Defeating ISIL is when they are not an existential threat to Iraq or other states in the region.We want them to have no operational capability,break them up into small organisations that can't mass to be operationally significant.
I have met with many of the sheikhs,and I've been very pleased with their willingness to accept the leadership of Prime Minister Abadi and the Defence Minister.We're training and equipping 12 Iraqi brigades,three of them Kurdish.There will be a clearing force and a holding force,plus immediate humanitarian assistance.It's very important that the effort have an Arab face and a Muslim voice.
The Syrian recruitment numbers (for training to fight ISIL in Syria) are much higher than we thought.We have an old friendship with Turkey,and think there has been much progress toward providing protection for the moderate Syrian forces.The real issue is,how do we protect our allies?
ISIL is an evil that we haven't seen in a very long time.As long as we're at the front of it,we can prevent another 9-11.The interpretation that they apply has permitted them to do the things they have done to certain groups such as Christians and Yazidis.The infusion of a large conventional,maneuverable force would change the nature of the conversation.The US brings to bear:
1.The capacity of our strategic leadership of the 62 countries and five Arab air forces in first strike.
2.Technical,intelligence support,special operations strke capabilities,training and the aggregation of these.
3.The capacity for Arab partners to be the defeat mechanism for Daesh,the Arabic word for ISIL.
There have been about 2500 air strikes since the campaign began on 8 August 2014.The combination of US and coalition airpower,together with the training and equipping of regional forces will enable us to achieve our strategic goals.
We are not cooperating with Iran.We are not accommodating Iran.
The President's proposed Authorization for the Use of Military Force has limitations about offensive maneuver forces.We may find that locations or allies may need to be defended.Each of those circumstances would have to be judged independently.There's a prohibition in the AUMF against the use of large,enduring ground forces such as those we used in Iraq and Afghanistan."Enduring" might be only two weeks-or it might be two years.It's all about matching the contingency,explained General Allen,who was the Afghan War commander from 2011-13.

Pope and Turkish President Exchange Views

Pope Francis I and Turkish President Recep Erdogan met in Ankara last Friday on the occasion of the Pope's official visit to Turkey and pilgrimage to Constantinople/Istanbul for St.Andrew's Day and talks with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I,spiritual leader of Orthodox Christians.Mr.Erdogan expressed concern about rising Islamophobia in the world.There are places where Islam and the followers of Islam are associated with terrorism and violence.Millions of Muslims feel oppressed by these associations with Boko Haram,al Qaida or ISIL which is talked about all over the world.*
Mr.Erdogan condemned state terrorism in Syria,which has led to a refugee crisis,and mentioned Turkey's problem with its Kurdish minority.All these challenges confront all human beings.As there is Islamophobia in the West,there is also violence and hatred in the Muslim world.All of these problems threaten our humanity.He called therefore for tolerance and healthy coexistence.Turkey is a bridge between East and West and an example of such coexistence.We seek to create a more livable world where cities can be more open and diverse,the President said,citing Turkey's role in humanitarian aid and the G20 group of nations.He hoped the Pope's visit would have a positive effect on the Islamic world,adding that we are happy to live together and asking God that the Pope's visit will be beneficial for all of us.*
For his part,Pope Francis noted that this event is precious to all Christians,as Turkey was the birthplace of St.Paul and the home of the Blessed Virgin Mary for many years,as well as the site of the first Seven Ecumenical Councils of the Church.He praised the vitality of Turkey's present,the hard work and generosity of its people.Today what is needed is a dialogue centered on what we hold in common,a lasting peace rooted in the respect of the dignity of all persons.It is essential that all Christians enjoy the same rights and respect the same duties.The Middle East and the rest of the world await this maturing of friendship.
How much longer must the Middle East suffer through this lack of peace?In Syria and Iraq in particular,terrorist violence shows no signs of abating,especially to Christians and Yazidis.It is always licit to stop an unjust aggressor,but the problem cannot be solved by a military response.May the most high bless and protect Turkey and enable her to be a strong and effective peacemaker,Pope Francis concluded.*
In an atmosphere of brotherly affection,His Holiness Pope Francis I went on to Constantinople Saturday for a prayer service with His All-Holiness Bartholomew I,Archbishop of Constantinople New Rome and Ecumenical Patriarch.The two archpastors expressed their determination to bring about the reconciliation between the Catholic West and the Orthodox East,even to the point of restoring intercommunion between the ancient churches,which parted ways in the eleventh century.The Church of Rome would not require submission,Pope Francis said.The only precondition for restoring intercommunion would be a simple agreement on faith.*
After attending the Divine Liturgy on Sunday,the feast of the Holy Apostle Andrew the First-Called,at the patriarchal Cathedral of St.George,which was celebrated by Patriarch Bartholomew,with the participation of Pope Francis who said the Lord's Prayer in Latin,the two spiritual leaders signed a statement reiterating their intention to continue on the path of reconciliation and together blessed the faithful gathered in the courtyard of the Phanar,the patriarchal enclave of Constantinople/Istanbul.The two men exchanged the kiss of peace several times during the Pope's visit.

Russia and the Impact on Markets

BP has done a good job of getting cash flow out of their asset base,said Matthew Beeseley of Henderson Global Investors.We hold some of it.The company is throwing off lots of cash,but there are risks in their partnership with Russian energy titan Rosneft.*
For now,the markets have thrown off Russia/Ukraine and Syria.We're certainly concerned about the low levels of volatility across the markets.It's not normal,and at some point,one would expect the markets to normalise.The optimism has really been found in the US and the emerging markets.The glass has been half empty in Europe and Japan.*
We're exposed to a company called Epam Systems Inc,a computer outsourcing firm.It has one third of its workers in Ukraine.We want a high level of conviction about our holdings.Across parts of Russia,it's hard to invest because of the lack of a high level of conviction.*
Current sanctions on Russia are on future debt and equity.Sanctions on present debt and equity would have a major impact.*
Investors are being paid to be complacent,and when the Fed raises rates in six months to a year,geopolitical risk will begin to be factored in,Mr.Beeseley cautioned.

The Geneva Syria Talks:Change and Danger

Secretary of State John Kerry is headed for Geneva,Switzerland for two days of talks with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.Each side will bring technical experts to assess the proposed turnover of Syria's chemical weapons to international supervision and evaluate the way forward,according to White House spokesman Jay Carney.At the same time,there are discussions at the UN to frame a Security Council resolution on the matter.We are working with Great Britain and France on the resolution.
The process needs to be credible and verifiable.After 20 years,Syria suddenly acknowledges it has chemical weapons and says it will sign the convention against their use.This is significant.
The president never considered canceling his Tuesday night speech.It is still very important for the president to speak to the American people.We will continue to have this discussion in the days ahead.This is far too complex an issue to reduce to a single phrase or words.
Russia has made this proposal and is engaging with other members of the UN Security Council.Russia's prestige is on the line.
There's no question very significant changes have taken place from the recent past.We go into this with eyes wide open.The goal of the Geneva meeting is to test the seriousness of the Russian proposal,Mr.Carney indicated.
Congressman Peter King,R-New York,said I have multiple concerns about Russia.We have now made Russia a major player in the Middle East.They will have influence over the region,and we will be almost indebted to them.Iran is actually more of a threat than Syria.
We've pretty much given immmunity to Assad.We should be extremely sceptical,extremely wary and not make any more concessions.We have to take a tough line with Russia.Russian President Vladimir Putin strengthens Syria and Iran's position in the Middle East.Don't give the benefit of the doubt to Putin.He wants to reestablish Russia and assert himself in a powerful way,Congressman King warned.
Mr.Putin is being seen as a man who does business with Syria and Iran,obsessively cultivating a Cold War mentality of being the counterweight to the influence of the United States.The Russians are part of the problem in Syria;they are not credibly part of the solution,said Senator John Cornyn,R-Texas.