The US Air Force sent seven F-15C Eagle fighter jets to Siauliai Air Base,Lithuania this week in advance of Russian military exercise Zapad 2017,or West 2017 in English.That's three more than typical for the US rotation in NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission,securing the air space for the Baltic states,which lack significant air power.
Zapad runs from 14-20 September.It is held every four years,so is not in response to specific geopolitical events.Nonetheless,it is jangling nerves in the Baltic states and Poland on NATO's Eastern Flank,who are so close to the drills, which are being held in Belarus,Western Russia,Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea.
Besides the F-15s,the US is deploying 600 extra airborne troops in the Baltics during the exercise.So it is reacting in a fairly restrained manner to Zapad,signaling concern but not alarm,and not giving Russia any excuse to overreact.*
Russia denies there is anything to worry about;they are just staging defensive exercises with Belarus.Should NATO be concerned at all?Consider the thoughts of US Army Europe commander Lieutenant General Ben Hodges,which he expressed to Reuters:
When Russia went into Crimea,that was against the backdrop of an exercise.When they went into Georgia-that was an exercise.Their history is full of examples where they don't live up to any treaties...They routinely violate those things.
We are all working hard to be at the highest level of readiness during an exercise like this.*
Russia says it and Belarus are only sending 13,000 troops to Zapad,along with 70 aircraft and 700 pieces of equipment,including tanks and artillery.Most interesting in the tank realm is the reconstituted First Guards Tank Army-a force of 500-800 tanks plus rocket artillery that is clearly of an offensive orientation and will be a showpiece of Zapad.It participated in the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.
NATO believes the real number of troops and civilian participants could exceed 100,000.*
The 2013 iteration of Zapad ended with a simulated nuclear strike on Warsaw,Poland-hardly a reassuring memory.And NATO observers have not been invited to the drills as of yet-another reason for keeping an eye out for an unpleasant surprise left behind when Zapad comes to an end.
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Alliance in the Balance:SecDef Mattis Goes To Europe
Secretary of Defense James Mattis was naturally front and center on his first visit to NATO headquarters at Brussels for a Defence Ministerial in his new position;yet as Russia seemed to be challenging America's new President,Donald Trump,in manifold ways,the SecDef became a figure even larger than life than he already was.Defence Ministers and journalists alike crowded round him and carefully weighed his words as a nervous world craved a sense of certainty regarding the US role in international politics today under a controversial populist president:
The first time NATO went to war was when the US was attacked,so if anyone has any questions about the value,you have to look at that,General Mattis told reporters flying to Europe with him on an E-4B airborne national command post.More importantly,it prevented war in Europe following two destructive wars,and we clearly see the value in deterring war.So this is a historic and,as you know,it's also a very important meeting.I wouldn't miss it,obviously.So our commitment remains to NATO and,in terms of NATO's life,it's in the midst of transformation.Why?You've watched as the character of war over these last dozen years has changed itself;and as the character of war changes,so must the character of the militaries that address it.
To show NATO's commitment to this,you'll notice that the only NATO command headquartered in the US is the Supreme Allied Command for NATO Transformation.The whole point of that command is to transform NATO,so we rightly go to Brussels where we all talk together;we talk about that transformation;we guide it.NATO has transformed over these past 20 years and it must continue to transform,but,in that regard,it's clearly in NATO's best interest to adapt to what happened in 2014-2014 was a watershed year when most of our hopes for some kind of partnership with Russia were finally shown to be unavailing.So what we've got to do is adapt and make certain that the Transatlantic bond remains strong;and I think that,in going there,what we're also doing is proving that we can once again adapt to those changing circumstances.
I'm going to listen.I've been absent from active duty for three and a half years;I'm going to listen and see where everyone's thinking is at out there.Listen first;learn what other people face;help them if I can,because they've been allies,they've stood by us-New York was attacked,and so many decades before that and since,and so many of them have lost boys,lads and women in fighting the enemy that attacked America-and then lead;America has a leadership role.*
The context of this trip to Europe is an egregious violation by Russia of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987 in deploying their new nuclear capable ground-based cruise missile,the SSC-8,after nearly a decade of illegal development and testing.As well,Russian fighter aircraft dangerously buzzed a US Navy guided missile destroyer,the USS Porter (DDG 78) in the Black Sea with their identification transponders turned off and disregarding repeated calls from the Porter.On top of this,the Russian spy ship SSV-175 Viktor Leonov had cruised farther north along the US coast than ever before,loitering 30 miles south of the US Navy nuclear submarine base at Groton,Connecticut today,15 February.It had
ventured near another nuclear submarine base at Kings Bay,Georgia on a previous voyage.All this leads one to conclude that Russia is currently testing new President Donald Trump's will,and that of NATO as a whole.
The first time NATO went to war was when the US was attacked,so if anyone has any questions about the value,you have to look at that,General Mattis told reporters flying to Europe with him on an E-4B airborne national command post.More importantly,it prevented war in Europe following two destructive wars,and we clearly see the value in deterring war.So this is a historic and,as you know,it's also a very important meeting.I wouldn't miss it,obviously.So our commitment remains to NATO and,in terms of NATO's life,it's in the midst of transformation.Why?You've watched as the character of war over these last dozen years has changed itself;and as the character of war changes,so must the character of the militaries that address it.
To show NATO's commitment to this,you'll notice that the only NATO command headquartered in the US is the Supreme Allied Command for NATO Transformation.The whole point of that command is to transform NATO,so we rightly go to Brussels where we all talk together;we talk about that transformation;we guide it.NATO has transformed over these past 20 years and it must continue to transform,but,in that regard,it's clearly in NATO's best interest to adapt to what happened in 2014-2014 was a watershed year when most of our hopes for some kind of partnership with Russia were finally shown to be unavailing.So what we've got to do is adapt and make certain that the Transatlantic bond remains strong;and I think that,in going there,what we're also doing is proving that we can once again adapt to those changing circumstances.
I'm going to listen.I've been absent from active duty for three and a half years;I'm going to listen and see where everyone's thinking is at out there.Listen first;learn what other people face;help them if I can,because they've been allies,they've stood by us-New York was attacked,and so many decades before that and since,and so many of them have lost boys,lads and women in fighting the enemy that attacked America-and then lead;America has a leadership role.*
The context of this trip to Europe is an egregious violation by Russia of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987 in deploying their new nuclear capable ground-based cruise missile,the SSC-8,after nearly a decade of illegal development and testing.As well,Russian fighter aircraft dangerously buzzed a US Navy guided missile destroyer,the USS Porter (DDG 78) in the Black Sea with their identification transponders turned off and disregarding repeated calls from the Porter.On top of this,the Russian spy ship SSV-175 Viktor Leonov had cruised farther north along the US coast than ever before,loitering 30 miles south of the US Navy nuclear submarine base at Groton,Connecticut today,15 February.It had
ventured near another nuclear submarine base at Kings Bay,Georgia on a previous voyage.All this leads one to conclude that Russia is currently testing new President Donald Trump's will,and that of NATO as a whole.
Saturday, June 4, 2016
Crisis Builds as Pan-Orthodox Council Faces Last Minute Tussles
Two of the 14 autocephalous Orthodox Churches have threatened to stay away from the immanent Holy and Great Council of the Orthodox Church if their demands aren't met;however,they remain open to negotiations.If even one Orthodox Church failed to attend the Council,it would lose its legitimacy as an historic event and so would have to be postponed at the very least.*
.The Church of Bulgaria is dissatisfied with such things as the seating arrangements at the Council.At the same time,the Church of Antioch is displeased by the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople's plan for a conference to resolve jurisdictional conflict between Antioch and the Church of Jerusalem immediately after the Council,rather than before it,as Antioch desires.
The Church of Georgia wants to amend the proposed Council document on Marriage and the Impediments to it.
*
The very fact of these late hour problems emerging shows how critical it is to hold this Council.The distance between the local Churches has become wider than perhaps was realised to this point,after so many centuries without a large assembly of all the Orthodox Christian Churches.*
At a meeting of the Russian Orthodox Church's Holy Synod on 3 June 2016,it was proposed:
1.that the way out of the present emergency situation could be found in holding an extraordinary Pan-Orthodox Pre-Council conference to address the present situation and examine the amendments to the Council's documents presented by Orthodox Churches with the aim to work out agreed proposals;
2.that considering the great amount of work and the importance of problems raised,such a conference needs to convene urgently,no later than on 10 June 2016,so that on the basis of its resolution the Orthodox Churches could make a decision as to the possibility of convening the Pan-Orthodox Council at the stated date;
3.that His Holiness Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia address His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew with an appropriate proposal;
4.and that the proposals be immediately sent t the Primates of the Local Orthodox Churches.*
The Council is scheduled to be held at the Orthodox Academy of Crete from 19-26 June in Kolymbari,Chania.
.The Church of Bulgaria is dissatisfied with such things as the seating arrangements at the Council.At the same time,the Church of Antioch is displeased by the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople's plan for a conference to resolve jurisdictional conflict between Antioch and the Church of Jerusalem immediately after the Council,rather than before it,as Antioch desires.
The Church of Georgia wants to amend the proposed Council document on Marriage and the Impediments to it.
*
The very fact of these late hour problems emerging shows how critical it is to hold this Council.The distance between the local Churches has become wider than perhaps was realised to this point,after so many centuries without a large assembly of all the Orthodox Christian Churches.*
At a meeting of the Russian Orthodox Church's Holy Synod on 3 June 2016,it was proposed:
1.that the way out of the present emergency situation could be found in holding an extraordinary Pan-Orthodox Pre-Council conference to address the present situation and examine the amendments to the Council's documents presented by Orthodox Churches with the aim to work out agreed proposals;
2.that considering the great amount of work and the importance of problems raised,such a conference needs to convene urgently,no later than on 10 June 2016,so that on the basis of its resolution the Orthodox Churches could make a decision as to the possibility of convening the Pan-Orthodox Council at the stated date;
3.that His Holiness Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia address His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew with an appropriate proposal;
4.and that the proposals be immediately sent t the Primates of the Local Orthodox Churches.*
The Council is scheduled to be held at the Orthodox Academy of Crete from 19-26 June in Kolymbari,Chania.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
President Plans Massive Increase of US Response to Russia
President Barack Obama's fiscal 2017 budget includes much more funding for the European Reassurance Initiative,quadrupling America's special support of its NATO allies aimed in particular at recent Russian aggression in Georgia,Crimea and Eastern Ukraine,as well as Russia's large scale ground exercises along the NATO periphery and high number of bomber flights near NATO and partner airspace,to 3.4 billion dollars.*
An ERI funding of 3.4 billion will enable the US to strengthen our robust military posture in Europe and improve our ability to uphold our Article 5 commitments to NATO members,the President said on 2 February.It should make clear that America will stand firm with its allies in defending,not just NATO territory,but also shared principles of international law and order.*
The funding will result in more prepositioned US military equipment and supplies in Europe;more rotations of US land,air and maritime forces into Europe;more exercises with NATO allies and partners;and more infrastructure improvement in NATO countries.*
It is a very clear sign of the US commitment to enhance the deterrent in Europe,and especially the Eastern part of Europe,noted Andris Razans,Latvian Ambassador to the United States.
An ERI funding of 3.4 billion will enable the US to strengthen our robust military posture in Europe and improve our ability to uphold our Article 5 commitments to NATO members,the President said on 2 February.It should make clear that America will stand firm with its allies in defending,not just NATO territory,but also shared principles of international law and order.*
The funding will result in more prepositioned US military equipment and supplies in Europe;more rotations of US land,air and maritime forces into Europe;more exercises with NATO allies and partners;and more infrastructure improvement in NATO countries.*
It is a very clear sign of the US commitment to enhance the deterrent in Europe,and especially the Eastern part of Europe,noted Andris Razans,Latvian Ambassador to the United States.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Pentagon Adjusting Strategy For Europe and Asia
On 7 November,US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter addressed the Reagan National Defense Forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley,California.
We are in the midst of a strategic transition,Dr.Carter said.In the face of Russia's provocations and China's rise,we must embrace innovative approaches to protect the United States and the international order.We must ensure that we and our partners are postured to defeat threats from high-end opponents in a complex set of environments.*
Our antagonists and competitors push many states toward us.Our troops are attractive partners.Our troops perform and conduct themselves admirably.I see this.I hear this from many foreign leaders around the world.They make us proud.*
Russia appears intent to play a spoiler role by flouting those principles and the international community;while China is a rising power and growing more ambitious in its objectives and capabilities.Of course neither Russia nor China can overturn that order,given its resilience and staying power,but both present challenges for it.In Europe,Russia has been violating sovereignty in Ukraine and Georgia,and actively trying to intimidate the Baltic States.Meanwhile,in Syria,Russia has been throwing gasoline on an already dangerous fire,thus prolonging a civil war that fuels the very extremism that Russia claims to oppose.
At sea,in the air,in space and in cyber space,Russia's actions have emerged as challenging activities-and most disturbingly,Moscow's leaders' nuclear sabre-rattling raises questions about Russia's commitment to regional stability;their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons;and whether they respect the profound caution nuclear age leaders showed with regard to the brandishing of nuclear weapons.We do not seek a cold,let alone a hot war,with Russia.We do not seek to make Russia an enemy;but make no mistake,the United States will defend our interests and our allies,the principled international order and the positive future it affords us all.
We're taking a strong and balanced approach to deter Russia's aggression and to help reduce the vulnerability of our allies and partners.We're adjusting our operational posture and contingency plans as we,on our own and with our allies,work to deter Russian aggression and to help reduce the vulnerability of allies and partners.The United States is accordingly making a number of moves in response,many,but not all of which,I can describe in this forum.We're modernising our nuclear arsenal so America's nuclear deterrent continues to be safe,effective and secure,to deter nuclear attacks and assure our allies.We're investing in the technologies that are most relevant to Russia's provocations,such as new unmanned systems;a new long-range bomber;and innovations in technology like the electromagnetic rail gun;lasers;new systems for electronic warfare,space and cyber space;and including a few surprising ones that I can't describe here.We're updating and expanding our operational plans for deterrence and defence,given Russia's changed behaviour.
In Europe,NATO remains the cornerstone of a principled order and its Article V a bedrock commitment;but NATO needs a new playbook.The old NATO playbook,including large American forces stationed in Europe,oriented toward the Fulda Gap,worked in Reagan's day,but it's not suited for the 21st century with its hybrid warfare;cyber threats and assymetric tactics;and also the vast enlargement of NATO territory that is subject to Article V.We're accordingly changing our posture in Europe to be more agile and sustainable;but we're continuing to take a balanced approach to Russia.We will continue to cooperate with Russia when and where our interests align.*
The single most influential factor in shaping the Asia-Pacific region's future is how China rises and relates to the principled order that has underpinned regional peace,stabiliy and security.We're putting our best and newest assets from all the services into the region.Qualitatively,we are making heavy investments in capabilities of importance there:subsurface warfare;electronic warfare;space;cyber;missile defence and more.We're building the capacity of our allies and partners.
We all have a fundamental stake in the security of maritime Asia,including dynamics within the South China Sea.The United States joins virtually everyone else in the region in being deeply concerned about the pace and scope of land reclamation in the South China Sea;the prospect of further militarisation;and the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states.
We mean what we say.We will continue to fly,sail and operate wherever international law allows.We also know we have much work to do still to ensure our strategies and plans are as innovative as possible,Dr.Carter noted.
We are in the midst of a strategic transition,Dr.Carter said.In the face of Russia's provocations and China's rise,we must embrace innovative approaches to protect the United States and the international order.We must ensure that we and our partners are postured to defeat threats from high-end opponents in a complex set of environments.*
Our antagonists and competitors push many states toward us.Our troops are attractive partners.Our troops perform and conduct themselves admirably.I see this.I hear this from many foreign leaders around the world.They make us proud.*
Russia appears intent to play a spoiler role by flouting those principles and the international community;while China is a rising power and growing more ambitious in its objectives and capabilities.Of course neither Russia nor China can overturn that order,given its resilience and staying power,but both present challenges for it.In Europe,Russia has been violating sovereignty in Ukraine and Georgia,and actively trying to intimidate the Baltic States.Meanwhile,in Syria,Russia has been throwing gasoline on an already dangerous fire,thus prolonging a civil war that fuels the very extremism that Russia claims to oppose.
At sea,in the air,in space and in cyber space,Russia's actions have emerged as challenging activities-and most disturbingly,Moscow's leaders' nuclear sabre-rattling raises questions about Russia's commitment to regional stability;their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons;and whether they respect the profound caution nuclear age leaders showed with regard to the brandishing of nuclear weapons.We do not seek a cold,let alone a hot war,with Russia.We do not seek to make Russia an enemy;but make no mistake,the United States will defend our interests and our allies,the principled international order and the positive future it affords us all.
We're taking a strong and balanced approach to deter Russia's aggression and to help reduce the vulnerability of our allies and partners.We're adjusting our operational posture and contingency plans as we,on our own and with our allies,work to deter Russian aggression and to help reduce the vulnerability of allies and partners.The United States is accordingly making a number of moves in response,many,but not all of which,I can describe in this forum.We're modernising our nuclear arsenal so America's nuclear deterrent continues to be safe,effective and secure,to deter nuclear attacks and assure our allies.We're investing in the technologies that are most relevant to Russia's provocations,such as new unmanned systems;a new long-range bomber;and innovations in technology like the electromagnetic rail gun;lasers;new systems for electronic warfare,space and cyber space;and including a few surprising ones that I can't describe here.We're updating and expanding our operational plans for deterrence and defence,given Russia's changed behaviour.
In Europe,NATO remains the cornerstone of a principled order and its Article V a bedrock commitment;but NATO needs a new playbook.The old NATO playbook,including large American forces stationed in Europe,oriented toward the Fulda Gap,worked in Reagan's day,but it's not suited for the 21st century with its hybrid warfare;cyber threats and assymetric tactics;and also the vast enlargement of NATO territory that is subject to Article V.We're accordingly changing our posture in Europe to be more agile and sustainable;but we're continuing to take a balanced approach to Russia.We will continue to cooperate with Russia when and where our interests align.*
The single most influential factor in shaping the Asia-Pacific region's future is how China rises and relates to the principled order that has underpinned regional peace,stabiliy and security.We're putting our best and newest assets from all the services into the region.Qualitatively,we are making heavy investments in capabilities of importance there:subsurface warfare;electronic warfare;space;cyber;missile defence and more.We're building the capacity of our allies and partners.
We all have a fundamental stake in the security of maritime Asia,including dynamics within the South China Sea.The United States joins virtually everyone else in the region in being deeply concerned about the pace and scope of land reclamation in the South China Sea;the prospect of further militarisation;and the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states.
We mean what we say.We will continue to fly,sail and operate wherever international law allows.We also know we have much work to do still to ensure our strategies and plans are as innovative as possible,Dr.Carter noted.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
The Masters:Will McIlroy Be Good Enough This Year?
World number one golfer Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland,who turns 26 on May 4,has been competing in The Masters tournament since 2009.He'll be playing alongside Phil Mickelson and Ryan Moore in the first round on Thursday afternoon.McIlroy spoke with journalists at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia on Tuesday.
I feel like I've done a lot of good work the past couple of days to prepare,McIlroy said.It's such an intimidating place the first time you get here.I'm playing my usual game-that's one of the biggest things I've learned.I'm just ready for the gun to go off on Thursday morning.
You just realise there's holes out here where par's a good score,and you move on.I'm here and have a great opportunity to do what few people in golf have done (win a career grand slam of the four majors).I've just really tried to keep on winning the next one.Golf's a very fickle game,so you don't take anything for granted.
My weight training is about longevity and trying to prolong my career.I originally got into it because of my bad back.It helps me to practice more.
I'd say Bubba Watson is my favourite to win.He has the perfect game for this course.He's won it two of the last three years.He tees it up really well.
I enjoy playing with Phil Mickelson.There's a good buzz around Phil,he's won it so many times (three).I enjoy his company,and his caddy Bones Mackay's as well.I've played with Ryan Moore a few times.
I talked with Tiger Woods on the practice tee.He feels good.He's been working hard.Like everyone else,I'll be looking at his score to see how he does.
You guys can write the stories and I won't read them.*
McIlroy would be the sixth player in history to win the career grand slam,should he win The Masters.Last year,he won two majors,the Open Championship and the PGA Championship.He's won the most PGA tournaments since 2010-nine.In his last fifteen starts,he's achieved four wins and four second place finishes.
I feel like I've done a lot of good work the past couple of days to prepare,McIlroy said.It's such an intimidating place the first time you get here.I'm playing my usual game-that's one of the biggest things I've learned.I'm just ready for the gun to go off on Thursday morning.
You just realise there's holes out here where par's a good score,and you move on.I'm here and have a great opportunity to do what few people in golf have done (win a career grand slam of the four majors).I've just really tried to keep on winning the next one.Golf's a very fickle game,so you don't take anything for granted.
My weight training is about longevity and trying to prolong my career.I originally got into it because of my bad back.It helps me to practice more.
I'd say Bubba Watson is my favourite to win.He has the perfect game for this course.He's won it two of the last three years.He tees it up really well.
I enjoy playing with Phil Mickelson.There's a good buzz around Phil,he's won it so many times (three).I enjoy his company,and his caddy Bones Mackay's as well.I've played with Ryan Moore a few times.
I talked with Tiger Woods on the practice tee.He feels good.He's been working hard.Like everyone else,I'll be looking at his score to see how he does.
You guys can write the stories and I won't read them.*
McIlroy would be the sixth player in history to win the career grand slam,should he win The Masters.Last year,he won two majors,the Open Championship and the PGA Championship.He's won the most PGA tournaments since 2010-nine.In his last fifteen starts,he's achieved four wins and four second place finishes.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Nature Note:High Up
A black-throated green warbler sang in the top of a pin oak on the property.This bird breeds from the Northwest Territories across to Newfoundland,and south to Georgia in the Appalachians.I had never encountered one at this low an elevation-420 feet,or 128 meters.It favors open tracts of pine or Canadian hemlock,especially above 2500 feet,or 762 meters.The forest bird hasn't been seen since five days ago,so I'm wondering if it will ever be down here in the foothills again.It measures five inches long,or 13 centimeters,and has white wing bars,in addition to its striking black throat and olive upperparts.There are certainly open tracts of white pine here for it to breed in.
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