NATO Plans Steady Course in Afghanistan

The NATO Defence Ministers have decided to fund the Alliance's Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan until at least 2020.They will also maintain troops across Afghanistan,NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of Norway said.*
At the same time,the US is reviewing its plans to nearly cut its troop strength in half next year,in light of the Alliance's strong support for the Mission.*
Before the Defence Ministers' meeting,President Barack Obama has ordered greater use of US airpower against the Taliban militants,including close air support for the Afghan National Defence and Security forces.This is because the Taliban Islamist extremists have increased attacks of late mostly in the southern provinces of Helmand,Kandahar and Uruzgan;while also increasing their strikes in the northern city of Kunduz.*
The NATO combat mission in Afghanistan ended on 31 December 2014.Today its Resolute Support Mission includes counterterrorist operations by US troops;and training Afghan soldiers and police by both the US and its NATO Allies and partners,NATO said.The US share of Resolute Support is called Operation Freedom's Sentinel.*
Besides the Taliban,the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has become a significant threat to Afghan security.On Saturday,ISIL militants stormed a police base in Eastern Afghanistan,killing at least six.Among those killed in Haska Mina District in Nangarhar Province were District police chief Shah Mahmood,as well as five policemen and 11 ISIL militants.

The US,Germany and NATO - the bilateral piece of the security puzzle

On 24 April,President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a news conference in Hannover,Germany.The President gave a readout of their bilateral talks on the occasion of the first visit of an American president to Hannover:
Most of our discussions,as Chancellor Merkel indicated,focused on urgent security challenges,Mr.Obama said.Germany is a valued member of the coalition to destroy ISIL.German aircraft support the campaign and German personnel in Iraq are training local forces.German assistance is helping Iraq stabilise and rebuild the areas it liberates from ISIL and our coalition continues to make progress.
Today we discussed additional steps that NATO could take to support the campaign,as well as economic assistance to Iraq that the G7 could pledge at next month's summit in Japan.Germany is obviously a very strong partner in the effort to provide humanitarian relief to the people of Syria and Iraq.We remain deeply concerned about the upsurge of fighting in Syria in recent days,and we continue to agree that the only real solution is a political solution that moves Syria toward an inclusive government that represents all Syrians.
Given the horrific attacks that we've seen around the world,including Paris,Brussels,Istanbul and San Bernardino,California-and on a much more frequent basis we've seen violence and attacks that's taking place in the Middle East-we discussed the importance of maintaining our strong security cooperation.In Afghanistan,we'll continue to help strengthen Afghan forces as they continue to push back against al-Qaida,the Taliban and ISIL.We'll continue to support the Libyan people and the new Libyan government as it seeks to extend security across its country.We agreed that the US and Germany are going to remain very strong counterintelligence and intelligence partners,and we're committed to using all the tools at our disposal to prevent terrorists from traveling and plotting attacks-and that includes improved information-sharing between our countries and within Europe-and,as always,we'll do so while upholding our values and civil liberties,inculding the privacy of citizens here and in the US.
I want to once again commend Angela for her courageous leadership in the response to migrants who are fleeing the Syrian conflict and conflicts elsewhere in the region.Perhaps because she once lived behind a wall herself,Angela understands the aspirations of those who've been denied their freedom and who seek a better life.And I know the politics around this issue can be difficult in all of our countries.We did discuss the EU's recent agreement with Turkey and Angela and I agreed that our nations can respond to that challenge in a way thatmis both humane and ensures our security.
And finally,as we look ahead to this summer's NATO summit in Warsaw,we discussed the importance of keeping the alliance strong with the investments that's needed for or collective defence.We continue to augment,on a rotational basis,NATO forces in Eastern Europe,including the Baltic States.As I've said since the very beginning of my presidency,we have a treaty obligation to defend every NATO member-and we will.Beyond the alliance,we welcome the formation of a new government in Ukraine,which we encourage to continue the political,economic and energy reforms that can deliver progress for the Ukrainian people.Chancellor Merkel,along with President Hollande,have been tireless in their pursuit of a peaceful anddurable solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine,and we agreed that all sides need to uphold the commitments they have made,and that sanctions against Russia can and should be lifted only when Russia fully complies with its commitments under the Minsk agreement,the President said.*
For her part,Chancellor Merkel said that Germany has become a more active partner,I think one can safely say,because we are also threatened.Our own security is threatened and we realise that we cannot ensure this on our own.We have to do this in our alliance,and in certain areas we have shouldered a long-term mission that we're going to continue-if we look at Afghansitan,for example.In a way, we've had a change of paradigm in the sense that we see this challenge of IS as something that is very acute,so we send weapons into a conflict area;we gave them to the Peshmerga-a completely new step compared to our past policies.
Looking at the terrorist threat-against France,for example-we've shouldered responsibility for a mission in Northern Africa,which is also a new thing as well,leaving the Congo mission aside where we spent some time;but if we meet in Germany,if we meet at the G7,or,again,in Warsaw-we shall have other opportunities to meet,the President and I-we shall address all of these issues,so,let me say for me,the future with this president is much more important than the past right now.We know that we obviously have to make additional efforts as regards our possibilities to defend ourselves;we have to put in more equipment,more personnel;we know the targets NATO has submitted to us;we think that the whole positioning of our Federal Armed Forces reflects fully the sense that we need to shoulder this national responsibility also as regards,for example,cyber threats-something that we've neglected to do over the past years.And I think that it helps-it helps us to tackle the challenges and to master them,and the cooperation with the US is indispensable.Looking at the larger neighbourhood of Europe,the transatlantic cooperation within NATO,but also other fora,is also highly essential for maintaining or own security and safety,Mrs.Merkel noted.

Operation Inherent Resolve:More Combat Power for the Iraq Campaign

US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford,US Marine Corps,recently briefed reporters on the anti-ISIL Operation Inherent Resolve at the Pentagon.This comes as the Pentagon seeks more US troops for Iraq,possibly including Apache helicopter units and more Special Operations Forces.*
We continue to do more and more,said Mr.Carter.We are systematically eliminating the ISIL cabinet,including Haji Iman,who was their finance minister and a veteran of their precursor organisation,al-Qaida in Iraq.This is the second minister this month we've taken out,after their minister of war.We've taken out the leader who oversees the funding of ISIL operations.
Iraqi Security Forces have moved from their staging base at Makhmur.The US Marines are now providing artillery at the request of the Iraqis to help support the ISF advance against the enemy and protect their forces,so in both Syria and Iraq,we are seeing important steps to shape what will be crucial battles in the months to come.The US military will continue to work intensively with our coalition partners to build on this progress as our counterparts throughout our governments work to defend our homelands at the same time.
We're not going to go into any further details about how our coalition conducted the operations I mentioned earlier.These leaders have been around for a long time.They are senior;they are experienced,Mr.Carter explained.Note:SOFs were reportedly used to take out Haji Iman.*
We are facilitating ISF in staging around Mosul to begin to isolate Mosul and,as the Iraqis have announced,that has begun,said General Joseph Dunford.These Marines that were there near Makhmour,their artillery battery that was there,were in direct support of that.We put the battery there to support the Americans that were there advising the ISF and also to be in a position to provide support to the ISF.From my perspective,this is no different from aviation fires that we have been delivering.This is surface fires;they're artillery,but certainly no different conceptually than the fire support we've been providing to the Iraqis all along.And with regard to accelerants,the Secretary and I do expect that there will be increased capabilities provided to the Iraqis to set the conditions for their operations in Mosul.And those decisions haven't been made yet,but we certainly do expect more of the things that we saw in Ramadi-albeit a bit different,tailored for operations in Mosul;but again,the primary force fighting in Mosul will be the ISF,and we'll be in a position to provide advise,assist and enabling capabilities to make them successful.
We've had surface fires in Al Asad and other places,and we've used them in the past,so this is not a fundamental shift in our approach to support the ISF.This happened to be the most appropriate tool that the commander assessed needed to be in that location,General Dunford added.*
This is our approach to eliminating ISIL.The ISF are the ones who are carrying out the assault,the envelopment and assault,but we're helping them.That's been our approach and we'll continue to do that.It started in Ramadi;we'll continue going up to Mosul,Mr.Carter emphasised.*
We have a series of recommendations that we will be discussing with the President in the coming weeks to further enable our support with the ISF,so again the Secretary and I both believe there will be an increase to the US forces in Iraq in the coming weeks,but that decision hasn't been made,General Dunford said.What is it that we need to do to maintain the momentum of the campaign,and what is it that specifically we need to do to enable the operations in Mosul? the Joint Chiefs Chairman asked.
I think it's indisputable,whether we're talking about the amount of ground they control,their command and control-I think we've affected that in a key way;but there's a lot that remains to be done.While ISIL hasn't been seizing ground in recent months,they continue to conduct terrorist attacks and guerilla attacks.I think the momentum is in our favour.I think there's a lot of reasons for us to be optimistic about the next several months,but by no means would I say we're about to break the back of ISIL or that the fight is over,General Dunford cautioned.

President Plans Massive Increase of US Response to Russia

President Barack Obama's fiscal 2017 budget includes much more funding for the European Reassurance Initiative,quadrupling America's special support of its NATO allies aimed in particular at recent Russian aggression in Georgia,Crimea and Eastern Ukraine,as well as Russia's large scale ground exercises along the NATO periphery and high number of bomber flights near NATO and partner airspace,to 3.4 billion dollars.*
An ERI funding of 3.4 billion will enable the US to strengthen our robust military posture in Europe and improve our ability to uphold our Article 5 commitments to NATO members,the President said on 2 February.It should make clear that America will stand firm with its allies in defending,not just NATO territory,but also shared principles of international law and order.*
The funding will result in more prepositioned US military equipment and supplies in Europe;more rotations of US land,air and maritime forces into Europe;more exercises with NATO allies and partners;and more infrastructure improvement in NATO countries.*
It is a very clear sign of the US commitment to enhance the deterrent in Europe,and especially the Eastern part of Europe,noted Andris Razans,Latvian Ambassador to the United States.

New and Hazardous Training Mission for US Troops in Anbar

President Barack Obama has ordered up to 450 more US troops to Iraq.They will train,advise and assist Sunni tribal militia members to battle ISIL at a new training camp in al-Taqaddum Air Base,a former US stronghold in the Iraq War from 2003-11,located at Habbaniya in the largely Sunni Anbar Province.As of last Thursday,8920 Iraqi troops had received US training at the four existing training camps at al-Asad Air Base;Irbil;plus two camps in the Baghdad area;and 2601 Iraqi troops were still in training.Of those who have been trained,800 are Kurds and the rest are Shiites.
Training at al-Taqaddum will likely begin this summer.It is only 22 miles/37 kilometers from Ramadi,the provincial capital recently taken over by ISIL.There are still a lot of engagements with ISIL in the area,so US troops on the training mission will perhaps be closer to the front lines than ever before.ISIL has been using more and bigger IEDs in Anbar Province-so large they are changing the equation on the battlefield.They are also digging extensive tunnels and filling them with explosives.Suicide attacks may be launched against the training camp.
Besides trainers,the US soldiers will be security and logistics personnel.They will still not be allowed to accompany Iraqi troops to the front lines or serve as forward air controllers.
I think it is a Band-Aid on a hemorrhaging strategy,said Senator John McCain,R-Arizona.We need actually thousands of additional troops.*
The 450 new US troops will bring the total number of US forces in Iraq up to about 3600.

Partnership Reaffirmed:Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Visits Washington

President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan,accompanied by his colleague Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah,has spent the last three days in the Washington area,solidifying a continued US commitment to his country following the cessation of combat operations by US troops at the end of 2014.Monday,he met with Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter at the presidential retreat,Camp David,in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains.On Tuesday,Mr.Ghani met with President Barack Obama,who extended the mission of the 9800 US troops currently serving in Afghanistan through the end of 2015 at Mr.Ghani's request.Wednesday,President Ghani addressed a joint session of Congress and was repeatedly given standing ovations by the American legislators.*
At a joint press conference with Mr.Ghani,President Obama said we agreed to keep in place our close security cooperation.As part of the NATO mission,we will continue to train,advise and assist the Afghan Security Forces,and will continue to conduct targeted counter-terror operations.We will maintain the 9800 troop level through the end of this year.The final drawdown to an embassy-centered presence of 1,000 troops will be decided on later this year.We will continue to support the national unity government of Afghanistan and support the development of the country.*
For his part,President Ghani said your national security team has gone out of its way for the most intensive discussion.The TAA mission is a vital part of our collective interest.We look at partnership with the US as foundational-not just for Afghan security,but for regional security.The departure of 120,000 international troops has not brought about the security gap that was predicted.The extremists do not speak for Islam;we do.We are speaking truth to terror.The threats that exist,the changing ecology of terror,these are destructive,nihilistic movements.Our commitment to peace is clear;we will not have peace with those who use our territory as a launching ground for global terrorism.*
It's been 90 days since two Americans were killed in Afghanistan,President Obama added.Afghans are fighting with courage and tenacity,and it gets better month by month.We want to make sure we do everything we can to make sure the Afghan Security Forces succeed,so we won't have to go back for a terrorism emergency.Our troops are not on the front lines,and force protection is a priority.It is my judgement and General Campbell's that our remaining is well worth it.*
The 2315 Americans who died in Afghanistan must not have died in vain,President Ghani continued.Their exposure,their number of casualties is way down.Afghanistan is the front lines.Because of American engagement in Afghanistan,the US mainland has not been attacked since 9-11.Our expectations for this visit were our cooperation would be enhanced,and a clear vision for our continued cooperation.The 4.1 billion dollar support for Afghanistan is a significant issue.Most importantly is the flexibility that has been shown in our security cooperation.*
We expect to be working with the Afghan government,for the Afghan people,for a long time,President Obama insisted.There's going to be intelligence and counter-terror cooperation,logistical and training support.The good news is,the Afghan Security Forces have stood up.They're better equipped than the Taliban or Haqqani Network.They're proving that,when they fight,they can be successful.*
Speaking before Congress on Wednesday,President Ghani noted that there is a another,darker cloud that is making its way to our country.The promise of the Arab Spring was followed by the Daesh (ISIL) terror.It is critical that the West understand the threat to the countries of Central Asia.Extremism is becoming a self-financing system.Today Afghanistan's people have rejected extremist violence.We are willing to speak truth to terror.That hatred must be challenged from within the religion of Islam.Silence is not acceptable;but silence is not what the world will hear from us.Islam must reengage with the world openly and without paranoid fear of encirclement,Mr.Ghani told the joint session of Congress at the Capitol.

Progress in Afghanistan,But Grave Concerns Remain

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday,General John Campbell,US Army,Operations Commander for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,painted an optimistic picture of Afghanistan today after nearly 14 years of assistance from Western nations,while also taking note of challenges that remain.One area of concern is the timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.Under the current plan,about 10,000 American soldiers will be present in 2015,but will go down to 5,000 for 2016,and withdraw entirely by early 2017.Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has requested us and NATO to show some flexibility,General Campbell said.Both Counterterrorism and Train,Advise and Assist missions are complementary.President Obama has granted us some flexibility,enabling us to continue the TAA mission beyond 1 January.*
Most of the options I'm discussing with my senior leadership include allowing more flexibility on glide slope,allowing more flexibility on locations.None of my options allow bumping troop strength up to 20,000.We currently have 9,800 US-combined with NATO,12,900 troops.There are several special operations forces camps.I think you have to continue to keep the pressure on al-Qaida.Our counterterror capability is quite good.*
I have no doubt in my mind the Afghans have the capability to do what they need to do.It's just a confidence issue.But if we continue to withdraw at the rate we are today,they will feel abandoned.President Ghani has requested continued help with logisitics,intelligence and close air support.*
The Afghan National Security Forces have 352,000 members.The army and police have good cross-pillar cooperation.
In the last 45-60 days,I've seen more Afghan-Pakistani cooperation than I've ever seen before.There's more cooperation between the Afghan border police and the Pakistani Frontier Corps.*
Force protection for both our troops and contractors is utmost on my mind.Our green-on-blue incidents have gone way,way down,but we'll continue to look very,very hard at that.
So far,the nascent ISIL is more a rebranding of a few Taliban,but we'e still taking this potential threat,with its dangerous rhetoric and ideology,very,very seriously.President Ghani is quite concerned about ISIL.I've made it a priority of information for my forces,and we'll continue to work that hard.There is some talk of ISIL being present in the universities.*
Kabul is the fifth-fastest growing city in the world today,General Campbell noted.He had a chart displayed for the Senators which showed gains in Afghan literacy,cellphone use,roadbuilding and girls' education in recent years.

Voices and Visions:Russian Power Politics in Eastern Europe

A former US ambassador to NATO,Kurt Volker,has been analysing the Ukraine crisis.In a March 12 editorial for Time.com,Mr.Volker wrote the following:"Putin is smart enough to create a veneer of legality(a referendum),a story-line designed to blur morality(fascists in Kiev,defending Russian citizens),and a threat of retaliation against European economies to deter would-be defenders of Ukraine.But the fact remains that this is a raw exercise of power to seize territory of a type not seen in Europe since World War II-except,of course,for Putin's invasion of Georgia in 2008."*
Mr.Volcker also appeared on CNN Wednesday,noting that,in 2008,the Russians were continually poking and probing in order to provoke a response so they could invade Georgia militarily.I think what NATO is doing about Ukraine is on the right track in reassuring the allies.The second thing is the ability to make Russia think twice.Russia is very well-positioned to use military force.What is incumbent upon NATO is to provide training,tactics and equipment to Ukraine,and make Russia wonder what kind of reaction they might get from Europe if they invade Eastern Ukraine.
If we did not take the steps we're taking now in sending troops to Poland and the Baltic states,Putin might think invading a NATO member is an option.He'll only stop when he feels pushback.Russia is gonna be probing constantly,Mr.Volker warned.*
In his March 12 editorial in Time.com,the former ambassador to NATO concluded by saying:"But a contributing factor to the situation in Ukraine today was a relatively complacent attitude in Europe and the US.By failing to continue to press forward with the development of a Europe whole,free and at peace,we helped create a vacuum filled by the worst elements of Ukrainian politics,and now by Russia."
Kurt Volker is currently executive director of the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University.*
Congressman Mike Rogers(R-Michigan),Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee,feels about Vladimir Putin that we're not dealing with somebody who has the same rational thought process that he had two years ago.*
Tom Donilon, a former National Security Advisor to President Barack Obama,said Mr.Putin saw a piece of his sphere of influence threatened.They'd rather see a destabilised Ukraine than a stable Ukraine aligned with the West.I believe we'll get to more severe sanctions because I don't believe the Russians will back down,Mr.Donilon predicted.

Ukraine and the West:Decision and Danger

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced that there will be more planes in the air;more ships in the water;and more readiness on the land in response to Russia's recent moves in the Ukrainian crisis.Just how dangerous is the current situation in Eastern Europe?I think it's pretty explosive,said General Richard Myers,US Air Force retired,former Chairman of the Joint Cheifs of Staff.Russia is doing several things that are dangerous:1.The overflight of the destroyer USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea by a Russian fighter aircraft;2.Massing so many troops on the border with Ukraiine;3.Taking over at least 10 towns in Eastern Ukraine.World War I started as an incident that got out of hand.This is very dangerous stuff that Russia is playing with.
If shots are fired and people are killed,this could escalate.I'm sure there are lots of options being presented to President Obama,such as providing weapons to Ukraine or providing weapons to them along with US advisors.They'll go thorugh them in the Situation Room.I don't think there are good military options.As for Russia attacking a NATO country,you would think not and you would hope not,but I don't know.*
Major General Mark Kimmitt,US Army retired,who was Assistant Secretary of State for Politico-Military Affairs under President George W. Bush,said Russia's moves are part of the great chess game.You can almost hear the echoes of Czechoslovakia 75 years ago.
These are Russian provocateurs in Eastern Ukraine.The term "Ukraine" means "border."President Putin wants to restore that buffer zone with NATO.There's no reason that a reasonable deployment of US and European troops in Ukraine woudn't stop Putin with a show of strength,General Kimmitt believes.*
Overnight Wednesday,Ukrainian soldiers reportedly fired shots in the air when armed pro-Russian forces attempted to storm a military base in Eastern Ukraine.
Update:During this incident,three Russian militants were reportedly killed and 19 wounded.

Columnist Assesses Ukraine Crisis

New York Times columnist Roger Cohen made several remarks at a panel discussion Wednesday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,DC on the topic of The Russian Intervention in Ukraine.It was moderated by former CBS News anchor Bob Schieffer and also included former US national security advisors Zbigniew Brezinski and Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft.
I'm not sure Vladimir Putin is a man who listens to concessions,Mr.Cohen said.Unless you respond to his strength with your own,you end up losing.We cannot take a veto from Moscow on whether free countries can join the EU.
Putin had the perception he could get away with this.There was a sense of a United States where the apposite word was "retrenchment."I think it's a matter of great concern when the US steps back from a red line at the last minute,as in the Syria chemical weapons matter.There is a sense of disunity and weakness that gave Putin a kind of green light.
President Putin is trying to recreate some sort of Russian imperium.While it's true there are "three Ukraines,"in the sense of Crimea,Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine,one Ukraine was recognised by Putin in 1994.This intervention is a game changer,a sea change.I think the situation is combustible,both within Ukraine and in the Baltic states.It was a 19 year-old kid that precipitated World War I.I think this is a far,far more dangerous situation than many people imagine.
I think what Putin has presented the West is,looking again at the transatlantic alliance;at defence budgets;at the notion that our attention should be elsewhere.President Obama is about to go to Europe.I think it's absolutely critical that this trip be well-prepared and a strong,united,vigourous statement about what has occurred be made,New York Times columnist Roger Cohen told the CSIS audience.*
President Obama will travel to a G7 developed nations summit in the Hague,Netherlands next week,but Vice President Joe Biden met with Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite in Vilnius Wednesday.He reiterated America's commitment to the security of the Baltic states and warned Russia of further consequences if it contiued on its "dark path."*
EU ministers are meeting in Brussels today,Thursday,to discuss further sactions on Russia.They may put higher ranking government officials and industry bigwigs on the sacnctions list.

News Notes:Tesla Motors;Caroline Kennedy

Tesla Motors has been upgraded to outperform by Webush Securities,with a price target of $240.00.Their cost structure in batteries beats the competition,said analyst Craig Irwin.I see them cutting their battery cost in half.If they can do it,they've got a winner,and that's why I'm raising it.*
Ths MSCI Asia Pacific index was up 0.80% in early Thursday trading,responding to President Barack Obama's signing of a bill that resolves the recent budget impasse and government shutdown for the next few months at least,averting the prospect of an unprecedented default.*
The trajectory for the market is onward and upward,said Andrew Economos of JP Morgan Asset Management.What we're doing is buying enough time for markets and economies to take hold.What the emerging markets are thinking is,we've got to reduce our dependence on America.
I think the dollar stays here;I don't think it gets stronger.If you have a weakening currency,you buy exporters;if you have a strong currency,you buy importers.It's a big,level one switch in assets,a re-risking.*
Caroline Kennedy has been unanimously confirmed by the US Senate to be Ambassador to Japan.It is the first time the late President John F. Kennedy's daughter,a sentimental favourite of many Americans,has held a government post.*
Tesla Motors(TSLA)

The Next Crisis:CEOs Plead With President,Congress

A group of CEOs met with President Barack Obama and Members of Congress Wednesday in an effort to educate them about what would happen if the nation defaults on its debt,a prospect that will be realised on October 17,if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling.Among those participating were Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase.
They shouldn't use the US failing on its obligation to meet its debt as a cudgel,Mr.Blankfein said.There's no precedent for default.We really haven't seen this before,and I'm not anxious to be part of the process witnessing this.*
The CEOs had a grim feeling following their meeting with Republicans in Congress.Congress is completely out of touch with Wall Street and the general economy,according to Bloomberg TV contributor Dawn Kopecki.They have no idea how bad it would be if the nation defaults on its debt.Mortgage rates will start widening.You're not dealing with business school graduates down in Washington,D.C.,Ms.Kopecki said.
The debt ceiling issue is legislatively separate from the budget impasse that has shuttered the federal government for more than two days now.It is related,howvever,by the fact that some House Republicans intend to use it as a political tactic,just as they are using the government shutdown,regardless of the harm it causes.
The chaos partly reflects the internecine conflict going on within the Republican party between moderates and the far right;and,some say,the leadership style of a president who didn't negotiate enough early on.It's resulted in dysfunction on a grand scale.

Syria:Bigger By the Day

A number of Obama administration officials continued their lobbying efforts for military action against Syria on Wednesday,fielding wide-ranging questions from sometimes irate Members of Congress.The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations did vote to approve the mission 10-7 after a classified briefing.
Polls show the American public largely opposed to the mission.The story is huge and growing,taking up the lion's share of cable news broadcasts.Some are calling for the President to address the American people on Syria from the Oval Office in prime time.
*We know that Assad will read our silence as a sign he can use his weapons with impunity.Iran and North Korea are listening for our silence.This is a vote for accountablity,Secretary of State John Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.Degrading his chemical weapons will have an impact on the battlefield.There will be downstream impacts.
These weapons pose a grave threat to our allies Israel,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Iraq.North Korea maintains a massive chemical weapons stockpile that threatens 20,000 US troops on the border.
There have been 60-100 officer and enlisted defections from the Assad regime in the last day or so.There are serious questions in the elite of Syria that are asking if Assad has gone too far.
Currently in the region,a number of countries have offered to be part of the military action-more countries than our military thinks we need.France and others in the region are prepared to be part of the operation with us.
Arab countries have offered to bear the cost and assist us.They've been quite significant offers-up to the whole cost,if the US does what it's done in the past.
*This will not be a pinprick;it will be a strike that degrades his capability,added Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.We have spent days and days going over every option and contingency,such as embassy security and collateral damage.
Allies will provide basing and overflight rights,noted General Martin Dempsey,Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.The focus and purpose will give us the best chance of limiting it.I can never discount the possibility of escalation,but we've kept it as low as possible.
Congressman Eliot Engel,D-New York,an expert on Syria,is concerned about the message we send to Iran as they pursue a dangerous nuclear capability.His colleague Dutch Ruppersberger,D-Maryland,pointed out that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds in the 1980s.Unchallenged,he went on to invade Kuwait in 1990.
*The whole Senate seems likely to approve the mission at this point,but the House of Representatives is an open question.It could be that the President will have to cast the deciding vote himself,as it were.

Syria:Voices and Visions

US and French forces seem almost certain to attack Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons within a short period of time.The UK is waffling after expressing initial support,delaying a decision until the UN inspectors have issued a report on chemical weapons use in Syria and a Parliamentary debate next week.NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed support for military action.The US is prepared to go it alone if necessary.*There would be cruise missiles launched from four or five US destroyers in the region,and perhaps from submarines;and possibly long range bombers would be utilised as well,along with fighter aircraft to suppress anti-aircraft systems and strike other targets with precision munitions.Air bases in Turkey and Italy could be used.The target sets would likely be Syrian command and control centres,as well as their naval and air forces in order to hinder a Syrian response.The operation would perhaps take a day or two.*CNBC's Jim Cramer said I'm at a loss.How do I game Syria?Collectively,the market doesn't know what it's doing.We're all searching for analogies;we don't really have analogs.We told Assad what the schedule is.I don't think anyone really knows much.*Art Cashin,Director of NYSE Floor Operations for UBS,said you're gonna see this as pretty broad-based;watch both gold and oil.We're playing a game of headline roulette.The difficulty is,once events begin to take place,they can accelerate.If they take it to the UN,there could be a sigh of relief rally.*General Anthony Zinni,US Marine Corps retired,former CENTCOM commander,said there has to be a long term strategy.Where do we go in the long term if he continues these unacceptable acts? This is not simply a matter of regime removal.We thought that in Iraq.This is a mess.There is a religious war underneath.If we attack now,we have to be prepared to follow up.A military commander,if he's prudent,plans against all possibilities.*This is a regional conflict.We have a lot of work to build international support.It's not there now,and that concerns me greatly,General Zinni confided.*President Barack Obama said the Assad regime will have received a pretty strong signal it better not do it again.You are not only breaking international norms and standards of decency,you are also having an affect on US national interests,and it needs to stop.

Cramer,China and the End of the World

I think it's gotten ahead of the Fed,said CNBC's Jim Cramer.The ten year Treasury continues to go up in rates.There are people who are making a very big end of the world case.The world is fretting about this.We just have to let it happen and let the end of the worlders play out.
The wheels are coming off China.Wages are going up.You're gonna hear the Communists talking about workers' rights.Workers' rights in Communist China?
People are saying this is the big unraveling.I respect the macro,but in the end,I am stuck with the micro,what with GM doing better than expected,as well as General Mills and PepsiCo.
They were looking at the big things at the US-China talks in California over the weekend,according to Pauline Loong,Managing Director at Asia Analytica.The good news is,there was no news.It was not an official summit.It was about what was on the chairs,not what was on the table.It was off the record.President Xi Jinping speaks English.
Right now,it seems the two big economies have decided it's in their interests to get along.Asian countries aren't in the untenable position of having to choose between them.
The eight hours of talks between President Barack Obama and Mr.Xi were described as having been historic and constructive.They took place at the Sunnylands Estate in Rancho Mirage,California.
The success of the talks was in spite of the fact that US defence contractor Northrop Grumman said hacking attempts are increasing at an alarming rate.Chinese hackers have breached defence contractors' systems or observed their activities with orbiting telescopes.
China has reportedly hacked into major projects such as the Advanced Patriot Missile;Aegis;V-22 Osprey;and Global Hawk.More than two dozen weapon systems have been compromised,but China has consistently denied it is responsible for such hacking.
Northrop Grumman(NOC),General Motors(GM),General Mills(GIS),PepsiCo(PEP)                                                            

War With Iran:What To Expect-and what to do

President Barack Obama warned Iran Wednesday that the time left for a diplomatic solution is shrinking.Investors are contemplating just what to expect and how to respond if war indeed breaks out.Aaron Gurwitz,Chief Investment Officer at Barclays Wealth,says the problem is,this is an unknown unknown.I don't know how to assess the chances of a war.
In an attack on Iran,the price of oil would probably rise very sharply.It would be very hard to get oil to customers.Expect 150-200 dollar a barrel oil if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
It would be a huge impact on markets and the global economy.Risk assets such as equities and junk bonds would be sold.We at Barclays don't want to go into cash now.You might want to buy the VXX as volatility would spike,or an oil etf.
I worry about it as a citizen and an investment strategist.You hear people talking about starting a war in a very sensitive region.Those who would lose sleep should probably put something in their portfolio,Mr.Gurwitz counseled.
Barclays PLC ADR(BCS)
Some possibilities for the situation researched by this blog include:
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return(OIL)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN(VXZ)
It is generally unwise to concentrate too much in any one asset.Also bear in mind that VXX is more volatile than VXZ.None of the notes above pay dividends or interest.
For less experienced investors,allocating more to the bond and cash portions of their portfolios would seem the safest course in difficult times.Some of the most popular bond funds are:
iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund(AGG)
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF(BND)

World Ponders Leading Diplomat's Legacy

Today the thoughts of many around the world are dwelling on the loss of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke,U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.Mr.Holbrooke died Saturday at age 69 after a total of more than 24 hours of surgery to repair his circulatory system at George Washington University Hospital in Washington.The hospital has a specialty of treating high-ranking U.S. officials such as former Vice-President Dick Cheney.
CNN correspondent Nick Robertson said Mr.Holbrooke's level of knowledge of history was what he brought to bear.His persuasive powers and ability to be tough with tough leaders in a diplomatic way were remarkable.
Mr.Holbrooke was last in Afghanistan in late October.He had been helping with a report on the conflict in the region to be reviewed by President Barack Obama and his advisors shortly.The seasoned ambassador was a central figure in the development and implementation of the administration's AfPak regional strategy.Young Americans were dying and being wounded in Afghanistan,Mr.Holbrooke stated,so they deserve our best effort.
Richard Holbrooke was a close friend of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her husband former President Bill Clinton.He was widely admired both at home and abroad,despite-or perhaps because of- an intensity which could be off-putting.
Please also see a tribute to Mr.Holbrooke in my Extra Content blog,which you may click on in the right-hand column.