Around a Wartorn Region:CENTCOM Commander Briefs Congress on the Strategic Roadmap

More than 200 military officers from 49 countries are working at US CENTCOM headquarters at McDill Air Force Base,Florida,CENTCOM commander General Joseph Votel,US Army,told the House Armed Services Committee on 27 February 2018:
We are grateful for,and largely depend upon,their partnership.*
In the course of the hearing,General Votel responded to a number of strategically important topics raised by the Members of Congress,mainly concerned with terrorism in South Asia and North Africa,as well as the malign role of Iran in the region.A classified session followed the open session.*
On Iran,General Votel noted that:
The increasing,not just quantity,but quality of their ballistic missiles,and the increasing export of these capabilities to other groups around the region.These weapons threaten to widen the conflict in Yemen,threatening our forces in Saudi Arabia,as well as our partners.They have sent coastal defence cruise missiles to the Bab el Mandeb Strait-some of them have been modified.We know these are not capabilities that the Houthi rebels in Yemen had.The presence of explosive boats,the increased presence of mines in this area are all very similar to the layered threats that Iran has posed to the Strait of Hormuz,and we hold them accountable for that.
Their continuing and changing power projection model-not only their own forces,but their proxies and partners that they are attempting to support around the region.We are helping Saudi Arabia to optimise their capabilities-many of which are from the US-and we are seeing some progress in that regard.*
On foreign fighters leaving following the massive defeats of ISIL in Iraq and Syria and going home to Turkey (900 fighters) and Saudi Arabia (1760 fighters):
They have experience and tactics that could be applied to other places.They're radicalised;so they have the ability to bring others on board with this.We have always attempted to isolate these areas and prevent the escape of these fighters,so they're either killed or captured where we take them on,and I think that we're successful in that.We do have some ability to interdict foreign fighters as they attempt to evacuate the areas.
Turkey has been absolutely vital to the campaign plan.We're keeping clear,open and professional lines of communication to Turkey as to what we're doing with other partners.*
Success in Afghanistan and in South Asia will require a strong relationship and the cooperation of Pakistan.I do have frequent and routine,very professional communications with my counterpart.We talk almost weekly.We meet frequently face-to-face.I can't characterise the relationship as trustful at this particular point.There is a lot of history there that has to be overcome;but what I would also tell you is,we are beginning to see positive indications.Through these communications,they're reporting to us some of the actions they are taking on the ground.There are positive indications that they are moving in the right direction.It does not yet equal the decisive action that we would like to see them take in turns of a strategic shift,but they are positive indicators,and it gives me hope that our approach is the right one.It gives me hope that we can restore this very important relationship.*
US strikes in Yemen have had a very significant impact on Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.Certainly it has impacted their ability to conduct external operations.It's gone to the areas where they have had sanctuary;it has continued to present them multiple dilemmas that they have had to deal with;so not only are they contending with our strikes,but they're also contending with partner operations that we work up with our Arab partners on the ground and our Yemeni partners on the ground.And this has become very,very effective.And I will tell you that we are extending that to ISIS in Yemen as well.That is not as well-developed as AQ is,but of course it is ISIS.We understand their ideology;we understand where they're going,and so we're concerned about them as well.*

General Campbell:Too Soon To Depart Afghanistan

General John F. Campbell,US Army,commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,provided one of his periodic updates on the Afghan War to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.If the current plan to cut US troop levels there down to 1,000 by the end of 2016 goes ahead,our ability to provide train,advise and assist would be very limited,General Campbell said.Just from Kabul,I couldn't do a counterterror mission.
1.We need to continue to build the Afghan capacity for their CT element.It's going to take time to be able to raise it.
2.To have a CT capability to keep pressure on some of the ungoverned spaces.Our CT forces are the best in the world.They welcome us there.Their Par One Prison is the gold standard for terrorist prisons.*
We're seeing a switch of Taliban in Pakistan to ISIL.Pakistani General Raheel Sharif and I spoke as late as last week.He said ISIL has no place in Pakistan.I believe he is genuine and is pushing his army and intel to fight Daesh (the Arab term for ISIL).We put Daesh in the category of operationally emergent in Afghanistan,with them putting in a base in Nangarhar Province.Afghan President Ghani is concerned,and Daesh is a priority information requirement for me.We're trying to partner Pakistan and Afghanistan to look at it.The open press estimates there are anywhere between 1,000-3,000 Daesh in Afghanistan.*
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have really impacted the Taliban this year,based on the casualties we've seen.For the police element,the number one issue is to get the right leadership.There are many police without training that have been hired.I believe that training is the key.In many cases,they're doing the same thing as the Army,without being manned and equipped like the Army.*
The Allies that I've engaged with,for the most part,are very supportive.Once the US makes the decision to keep more troops in Afghanistan,we'll see NATO come into that-absolutely.
It becomes a matter of physics.Every single day,we continue to de-scope our bases out there.I've also made sure it's not irreversible.This is a very critical year for 2016.The NATO Warsaw conference will decide their troop commitments for 2016-20.*
I provided my senior leadership with courses of action based on the changes that have happened the last few years:the growth of Daesh;the actions by Pakistan;the new Afghan leadership of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah.We've built the Afghans an Army and police they cannot afford.They're going to need the help of the international community.We need a year and a half to train,advise and assist the ANDSF.
In all of our courses of action,my senior leadership would have an irreversible decision point.We are overwhelmingly welcomed by the Afghan leadership and civilians.Presence equals influence.They will continue to want a coalition presence.They understand that we've provided a lot of blood,sweat and tears,and don't want to let us down.Based on what's happened since 2014,I believe we still have to do TAA for aviation,logistics,intel and special operations.The conditions on the ground have changed,and we need to look at the pros and cons of that.
I think everyone's looking at Daesh to make sure it doesn't grow to the lengths it has in Iraq and Syria.Upwards of 20-30% of Taliban are irreconcilable;Daesh is irreconcilable at this point in time.We've got to continue to move toward a peace process with the Taliban.Coalition presence has a great impact on President Ghani,the ANDSF,the people.Deciding on a larger coalition force would have a huge impact there.Afghanistan will continue to be a very dangerous place,and the ANDSF will continue to be challenged.You absolutely need to operate from a position of strength to pursue the reconciliation process there.*
Their close air support is just starting to grow.Starting at the end of the year,they will start to have a fixed wing capability,but it will be 2017-18 before it is fully online.Whenever you put a time on something,you always give somebody a chance to manipulate that.To get down to 1,000 US troops by the end of 2016,you would have to start in January,General Campbell advised the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Pakistan Must Act Against Taliban,Afghan President Says

We hoped for peace,but war is declared against us from Pakistani territory,said Afghan President Ashraf Ghani after last weekend's bloody attacks by Taliban militants in the Afghan capital Kabul,which killed almost 70,including an American Green Beret,and wounded hundreds of others.The incidents of the past two months in general,and the recent days in particular,show that the suicide training camps and the bomb-making facilities used to target and murder our innocent people still operate.In the middle of the night,at 1:30 am,doomsday descended upon our people.It wasn't an earthquake;it wasn't a storm;it was a human hand.We want the origin of that hand;we want their centre;we want action against them.This is our main demand;everything else is peripheral,President Ghani stated.*
Following the death two years ago of Mullah Omar,Mullah Mukhtar Muhammad Mansour has been elected and installed Taliban leader or "Amir ul-Momineen" in large ceremonies in Quetta,Pakistan,and he chose as his deputy a man from the most aggressive Taliban faction,the Haqqani Network.Pakistan failed to stop the assembly,despite its assurances that such a gathering would not be tolerated,President Ghani pointed out to his cabinet.
The peace process that was just getting started with the Taliban has thus been declared dead.*
I go to Pakistan about once a month to meet with Pakistani Army Chief of General Staff Raheel Sharif,and talk to him every week,said General John Campbell,commander of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan,at The Brookings Institution think tank.I think with General Raheel and the Afghan National Unity Government you have a leadership team that understands.It's going to take time to deal with the Haqqani Network.President Ghani's been very strong with General Raheel.I think that's going to take time.I'm still worried about the threat the Haqqani Network brings to Kabul,General Campbell said prophetically before last weekend's attacks.You're going to have folks out there like Haqqani that want to continue to fight,and you're going to have to deal with them in a different way.*

Progress in Afghanistan,But Grave Concerns Remain

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday,General John Campbell,US Army,Operations Commander for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,painted an optimistic picture of Afghanistan today after nearly 14 years of assistance from Western nations,while also taking note of challenges that remain.One area of concern is the timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.Under the current plan,about 10,000 American soldiers will be present in 2015,but will go down to 5,000 for 2016,and withdraw entirely by early 2017.Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has requested us and NATO to show some flexibility,General Campbell said.Both Counterterrorism and Train,Advise and Assist missions are complementary.President Obama has granted us some flexibility,enabling us to continue the TAA mission beyond 1 January.*
Most of the options I'm discussing with my senior leadership include allowing more flexibility on glide slope,allowing more flexibility on locations.None of my options allow bumping troop strength up to 20,000.We currently have 9,800 US-combined with NATO,12,900 troops.There are several special operations forces camps.I think you have to continue to keep the pressure on al-Qaida.Our counterterror capability is quite good.*
I have no doubt in my mind the Afghans have the capability to do what they need to do.It's just a confidence issue.But if we continue to withdraw at the rate we are today,they will feel abandoned.President Ghani has requested continued help with logisitics,intelligence and close air support.*
The Afghan National Security Forces have 352,000 members.The army and police have good cross-pillar cooperation.
In the last 45-60 days,I've seen more Afghan-Pakistani cooperation than I've ever seen before.There's more cooperation between the Afghan border police and the Pakistani Frontier Corps.*
Force protection for both our troops and contractors is utmost on my mind.Our green-on-blue incidents have gone way,way down,but we'll continue to look very,very hard at that.
So far,the nascent ISIL is more a rebranding of a few Taliban,but we'e still taking this potential threat,with its dangerous rhetoric and ideology,very,very seriously.President Ghani is quite concerned about ISIL.I've made it a priority of information for my forces,and we'll continue to work that hard.There is some talk of ISIL being present in the universities.*
Kabul is the fifth-fastest growing city in the world today,General Campbell noted.He had a chart displayed for the Senators which showed gains in Afghan literacy,cellphone use,roadbuilding and girls' education in recent years.

World Ponders Leading Diplomat's Legacy

Today the thoughts of many around the world are dwelling on the loss of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke,U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.Mr.Holbrooke died Saturday at age 69 after a total of more than 24 hours of surgery to repair his circulatory system at George Washington University Hospital in Washington.The hospital has a specialty of treating high-ranking U.S. officials such as former Vice-President Dick Cheney.
CNN correspondent Nick Robertson said Mr.Holbrooke's level of knowledge of history was what he brought to bear.His persuasive powers and ability to be tough with tough leaders in a diplomatic way were remarkable.
Mr.Holbrooke was last in Afghanistan in late October.He had been helping with a report on the conflict in the region to be reviewed by President Barack Obama and his advisors shortly.The seasoned ambassador was a central figure in the development and implementation of the administration's AfPak regional strategy.Young Americans were dying and being wounded in Afghanistan,Mr.Holbrooke stated,so they deserve our best effort.
Richard Holbrooke was a close friend of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her husband former President Bill Clinton.He was widely admired both at home and abroad,despite-or perhaps because of- an intensity which could be off-putting.
Please also see a tribute to Mr.Holbrooke in my Extra Content blog,which you may click on in the right-hand column.

IMF Aids East Europe

The International Monetary Fund has played a major role in rescuing East Europe from the financial crisis.Since Q4 of 2008,the IMF has parceled out 50 billion dollars of its 250 billion reserves to East European and other countries,as they deal with cratering exports,investment and currencies.Social unrest has occurred in Bulgaria,Latvia and Lithuania because of the worsening downturn.Among recent IMF loans were 18.8 billion to Hungary,2.46 billion to Belarus,2.35 billion to Latvia and 16.4 billion to Ukraine.Pakistan has received 7.6 billion,while Iceland has gotten 2.1 billion.British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for an increase in IMF reserves,fearing a lenghthier crisis could deprive nations of aid,leaving them in economic winter.IMF officials say 500 billion would be enough for the crisis,but others aren't so sure.