Focus Kabul:Major Gathering of Leaders Discuss New Afghanistan Strategy - context and cost

Several important figures met in Kabul,Afghanistan on 27 September to go over the new Afghanistan strategy,which is now seen as part of President Donald Trump's South Asia strategy including Pakistan and India as well as Afghanistan.General John Nicholson,commander of all NATO and US forces in Afghanistan,welcomed NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg;US Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison;and US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to Kabul for the high level discussions with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah,as well as other Afghan national security officials.
A news conference was held with President Ghani,Mr.Stoltenberg and Mr.Mattis following the talks,which went on despite a rocket attack on Kabul International Airport claimed by both the Taliban and ISIL-K militants.Several civilians were reportedly injured in the attack.*
Mr.Stoltenberg told the reporters that:
About 13,000 troops from 39 different countries serve in our Resolute Support Mission.Around half are US troops,with the rest coming from European Allies and our partner nations.
Much progress has been made,but there is still too much violence,too much instability and still too much corruption.
NATO's presence in Afghanistan has come at a great cost-a human cost.Hundreds of thousands of brave men and women have served under the NATO flag.Thousands have lost their lives,and many more have suffered visible and invisible wounds.
There is also a financial cost.The international community has spent billions sustaining our presence,and in support of the Afghan forces.
So we know the cost of staying in Afghanistan;but the cost of leaving would be even higher.If NATO forces leave too soon,there is a risk that Afghanistan may return to a state of chaos and become once more a safe haven for international terrorism.The last time that happened,it lead to the 9-11 terrorist attacks on the US,in which almost 3,000 people were murdered.We cannot allow that to happen again.
NATO leaving would also risk further instability in the region,including refugees fleeing for the safety of Europe.
NATO doesn't quit when the going gets tough.That is why I much welcome that many nations have pledged further contributions to our mission here in Afghanistan,including more troops from the US.And I welcome President Trump's new conditions-based approach to Afghanistan and the region.
NATO is committed to funding the Afghan security forces until at least 2020,and we will continue to provide almost a billion each year to the Afghan defence and security forces.*
Defense Secretary Mattis has signed orders to deploy about 3,000 more US troops to train,advise and assist Afghan forces.They are either on the way or have at least been notified,he told reporters.That will bring the US total to about 14,000 troops in Afghanistan.*
We will not abandon Afghanistan to a merciless enemy trying to kill its way to power,Mr.Mattis said at the news conference.
This new strategy is conditions-based and not time-based;because war is principally a matter of will,and we've made clear that we have the will to stand together.Through our partnership,we will suffocate any hope that al-Qaida,or ISIS-Daesh,Haqqani or the Taliban have of winning by killing.
This South Asia strategy and this renewed commitment is an opportunity for Pakistan to engage in the counterterror campaign.*
President Ghani noted India's generosity in pledging a billion dollars of aid to Afghanistan.*
Asked about the Russian and Iranian role in supplying weapons to the Taliban,Mr.Mattis said he's not willing to discuss the specifics at this time on those two countries.*
Added Mr.Stoltenberg:
At our defence ministerial meeting in June,we actually decided to increase our NATO troop levels in Afghanistan,and several Allies have already started to step up to their pledges to send more troops.So they are sending more troops to Afghanistan because it is in their interest to have a more stable Afghanistan.*
Reflecting on history,Mr.Mattis recalled that when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in late 1979,it upended the society,disrupting tribal alliances and so forth.It opened the door to Iaslamist extremist groups setting up in the country and is what ultimately led us to where we are at this point.*

Afghan War Strategy:Building on Success with Greater Flexibility

On the third leg of his major overseas trip,US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter met in Kabul,Afghanistan with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah yesterday 12 July,as well as the Afghan defence and interior ministers.Dr.Carter had previously attended the NATO Warsaw Summit and secretly traveled to Baghdad,Iraq on 11 July.
In a Kabul news conference,Dr.Carter said he and the Afghan leaders discussed:
1.the US commitments to enhance the authorities of our ground commanders;
2.maintain our financial commitment to the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces;and
3.retain a more substantial US force presence of 8400 troops into 2017 as they continue their twofold mission against the Taliban and other Islamist extremist militants of training,advising and assisting the ANDSF,along with counterterrorism support.*
The meetings reaffirmed to me that we have strong partners here,with a common vision focused on a secure and prosperous future for the Afghan people,Dr.Carter noted.At the Warsaw Summit,coalition partners confirmed their commitment of financial sustainment to the ANDSF and of the Resolute Support Mission.Carter commended the ANDSF for fighting courageously last year during a tough fighting season and for their continued dedication in the face of formidable challenges this year.We are looking to build on their successes to find ways to support and enable them more effectively,he added.He and commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan General John Nicholson,US Army,discussed President Barack Obama's decision to grant additional flexibility in the use of U.S. forces.This added flexibility,coupled with new integration of the A-29 and MD-530 close air support platforms,reflects our determination to seize every opportunity possible to use our resources in the theatre to the greatest possible effectiveness.*
We're with you.We stand by you and we will continue to work hard together to finish the mission we started,Dr.Carter assured the Afghan people.He thanked the American,NATO and Afghan troops who have served and sacrificed together over the past 15 years in the name of peace,security and freedom,and who continue that mission today.*
The Embraer A-29 Super Tucano Ground Attack aircraft was selected by the US Air Force for its Light Air Support Program in 2013,with the immediate intent of supplying it to Afghanistan,and then to other US allies.This Brazilian airplane is a vital element of the US Afghan strategy supporting the development of an indigenous Afghan Air Force.The MD-530F Close Air Attack helicopter is being used both in a counterterrorist role and as a trainer for Afghan Air Force pilots of their Russian Mi-17 transport and Mi-35 attack helicopters.

General Campbell:Too Soon To Depart Afghanistan

General John F. Campbell,US Army,commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,provided one of his periodic updates on the Afghan War to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.If the current plan to cut US troop levels there down to 1,000 by the end of 2016 goes ahead,our ability to provide train,advise and assist would be very limited,General Campbell said.Just from Kabul,I couldn't do a counterterror mission.
1.We need to continue to build the Afghan capacity for their CT element.It's going to take time to be able to raise it.
2.To have a CT capability to keep pressure on some of the ungoverned spaces.Our CT forces are the best in the world.They welcome us there.Their Par One Prison is the gold standard for terrorist prisons.*
We're seeing a switch of Taliban in Pakistan to ISIL.Pakistani General Raheel Sharif and I spoke as late as last week.He said ISIL has no place in Pakistan.I believe he is genuine and is pushing his army and intel to fight Daesh (the Arab term for ISIL).We put Daesh in the category of operationally emergent in Afghanistan,with them putting in a base in Nangarhar Province.Afghan President Ghani is concerned,and Daesh is a priority information requirement for me.We're trying to partner Pakistan and Afghanistan to look at it.The open press estimates there are anywhere between 1,000-3,000 Daesh in Afghanistan.*
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have really impacted the Taliban this year,based on the casualties we've seen.For the police element,the number one issue is to get the right leadership.There are many police without training that have been hired.I believe that training is the key.In many cases,they're doing the same thing as the Army,without being manned and equipped like the Army.*
The Allies that I've engaged with,for the most part,are very supportive.Once the US makes the decision to keep more troops in Afghanistan,we'll see NATO come into that-absolutely.
It becomes a matter of physics.Every single day,we continue to de-scope our bases out there.I've also made sure it's not irreversible.This is a very critical year for 2016.The NATO Warsaw conference will decide their troop commitments for 2016-20.*
I provided my senior leadership with courses of action based on the changes that have happened the last few years:the growth of Daesh;the actions by Pakistan;the new Afghan leadership of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah.We've built the Afghans an Army and police they cannot afford.They're going to need the help of the international community.We need a year and a half to train,advise and assist the ANDSF.
In all of our courses of action,my senior leadership would have an irreversible decision point.We are overwhelmingly welcomed by the Afghan leadership and civilians.Presence equals influence.They will continue to want a coalition presence.They understand that we've provided a lot of blood,sweat and tears,and don't want to let us down.Based on what's happened since 2014,I believe we still have to do TAA for aviation,logistics,intel and special operations.The conditions on the ground have changed,and we need to look at the pros and cons of that.
I think everyone's looking at Daesh to make sure it doesn't grow to the lengths it has in Iraq and Syria.Upwards of 20-30% of Taliban are irreconcilable;Daesh is irreconcilable at this point in time.We've got to continue to move toward a peace process with the Taliban.Coalition presence has a great impact on President Ghani,the ANDSF,the people.Deciding on a larger coalition force would have a huge impact there.Afghanistan will continue to be a very dangerous place,and the ANDSF will continue to be challenged.You absolutely need to operate from a position of strength to pursue the reconciliation process there.*
Their close air support is just starting to grow.Starting at the end of the year,they will start to have a fixed wing capability,but it will be 2017-18 before it is fully online.Whenever you put a time on something,you always give somebody a chance to manipulate that.To get down to 1,000 US troops by the end of 2016,you would have to start in January,General Campbell advised the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Pakistan Must Act Against Taliban,Afghan President Says

We hoped for peace,but war is declared against us from Pakistani territory,said Afghan President Ashraf Ghani after last weekend's bloody attacks by Taliban militants in the Afghan capital Kabul,which killed almost 70,including an American Green Beret,and wounded hundreds of others.The incidents of the past two months in general,and the recent days in particular,show that the suicide training camps and the bomb-making facilities used to target and murder our innocent people still operate.In the middle of the night,at 1:30 am,doomsday descended upon our people.It wasn't an earthquake;it wasn't a storm;it was a human hand.We want the origin of that hand;we want their centre;we want action against them.This is our main demand;everything else is peripheral,President Ghani stated.*
Following the death two years ago of Mullah Omar,Mullah Mukhtar Muhammad Mansour has been elected and installed Taliban leader or "Amir ul-Momineen" in large ceremonies in Quetta,Pakistan,and he chose as his deputy a man from the most aggressive Taliban faction,the Haqqani Network.Pakistan failed to stop the assembly,despite its assurances that such a gathering would not be tolerated,President Ghani pointed out to his cabinet.
The peace process that was just getting started with the Taliban has thus been declared dead.*
I go to Pakistan about once a month to meet with Pakistani Army Chief of General Staff Raheel Sharif,and talk to him every week,said General John Campbell,commander of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan,at The Brookings Institution think tank.I think with General Raheel and the Afghan National Unity Government you have a leadership team that understands.It's going to take time to deal with the Haqqani Network.President Ghani's been very strong with General Raheel.I think that's going to take time.I'm still worried about the threat the Haqqani Network brings to Kabul,General Campbell said prophetically before last weekend's attacks.You're going to have folks out there like Haqqani that want to continue to fight,and you're going to have to deal with them in a different way.*

ISIL Threat To Afghanistan Grows

General John F. Campbell,US Army,commander of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan,is beginning to consider what his best military advice to the US Government will be with regard to US troop levels in Afghanistan.The current fighting season is halfway over,and the American military contingent of about 9800 personnel will be maintained through its remainder.US forces serve in both the NATO Operation Resolute Support train,advise and assist mission and the Operation Freedom's Sentinel counter-terrorism mission.*
Speaking to reporters during Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey's recent visit to Afghanistan and Iraq,General Campbell said we're taking a look at the state of the Afghan National Unity Government and the state of the Afghan Security Forces;also considering the set and basing of US forces and the state of the insurgency.
General Campbell voiced concern about the presence of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in Afghanistan,describing it as a wrinkle in his deliberations.Late last year,he said,we first starting hearing about ISIL,and in the last six or seven months,there is a drumbeat that started to grow-particularly in Nangahar,Farah and Northern Helmand Provinces.ISIL and Taliban militants are contesting control of Nangahar.
We said the ISIL threat was nascent,the general reflected,but now I would say it is probably emergent.Afghan President Ashraf Ghani knows ISIL has the ability to move very quickly,and he wants to make sure he's putting systems and processes in place to build his capability.
Thirty to forty percent of the Taliban are not reconcilable,including the Haqqani Network.So what happens if the Taliban starts reconciling?Do these other guys go over to ISIL?That's an issue.Neither the Taliban nor ISIL are an existential threat to Afghanistan at this point.Could they become that down the road?I don't know,General John Campbell admitted to the journalists.*
President Ghani has expressed his wish that Afghanistan become the hub of a regional counter-terrorist network to Generals Dempsey and Campbell.

Partnership Reaffirmed:Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Visits Washington

President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan,accompanied by his colleague Chief Executive Dr.Abdullah Abdullah,has spent the last three days in the Washington area,solidifying a continued US commitment to his country following the cessation of combat operations by US troops at the end of 2014.Monday,he met with Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter at the presidential retreat,Camp David,in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains.On Tuesday,Mr.Ghani met with President Barack Obama,who extended the mission of the 9800 US troops currently serving in Afghanistan through the end of 2015 at Mr.Ghani's request.Wednesday,President Ghani addressed a joint session of Congress and was repeatedly given standing ovations by the American legislators.*
At a joint press conference with Mr.Ghani,President Obama said we agreed to keep in place our close security cooperation.As part of the NATO mission,we will continue to train,advise and assist the Afghan Security Forces,and will continue to conduct targeted counter-terror operations.We will maintain the 9800 troop level through the end of this year.The final drawdown to an embassy-centered presence of 1,000 troops will be decided on later this year.We will continue to support the national unity government of Afghanistan and support the development of the country.*
For his part,President Ghani said your national security team has gone out of its way for the most intensive discussion.The TAA mission is a vital part of our collective interest.We look at partnership with the US as foundational-not just for Afghan security,but for regional security.The departure of 120,000 international troops has not brought about the security gap that was predicted.The extremists do not speak for Islam;we do.We are speaking truth to terror.The threats that exist,the changing ecology of terror,these are destructive,nihilistic movements.Our commitment to peace is clear;we will not have peace with those who use our territory as a launching ground for global terrorism.*
It's been 90 days since two Americans were killed in Afghanistan,President Obama added.Afghans are fighting with courage and tenacity,and it gets better month by month.We want to make sure we do everything we can to make sure the Afghan Security Forces succeed,so we won't have to go back for a terrorism emergency.Our troops are not on the front lines,and force protection is a priority.It is my judgement and General Campbell's that our remaining is well worth it.*
The 2315 Americans who died in Afghanistan must not have died in vain,President Ghani continued.Their exposure,their number of casualties is way down.Afghanistan is the front lines.Because of American engagement in Afghanistan,the US mainland has not been attacked since 9-11.Our expectations for this visit were our cooperation would be enhanced,and a clear vision for our continued cooperation.The 4.1 billion dollar support for Afghanistan is a significant issue.Most importantly is the flexibility that has been shown in our security cooperation.*
We expect to be working with the Afghan government,for the Afghan people,for a long time,President Obama insisted.There's going to be intelligence and counter-terror cooperation,logistical and training support.The good news is,the Afghan Security Forces have stood up.They're better equipped than the Taliban or Haqqani Network.They're proving that,when they fight,they can be successful.*
Speaking before Congress on Wednesday,President Ghani noted that there is a another,darker cloud that is making its way to our country.The promise of the Arab Spring was followed by the Daesh (ISIL) terror.It is critical that the West understand the threat to the countries of Central Asia.Extremism is becoming a self-financing system.Today Afghanistan's people have rejected extremist violence.We are willing to speak truth to terror.That hatred must be challenged from within the religion of Islam.Silence is not acceptable;but silence is not what the world will hear from us.Islam must reengage with the world openly and without paranoid fear of encirclement,Mr.Ghani told the joint session of Congress at the Capitol.

Progress in Afghanistan,But Grave Concerns Remain

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday,General John Campbell,US Army,Operations Commander for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,painted an optimistic picture of Afghanistan today after nearly 14 years of assistance from Western nations,while also taking note of challenges that remain.One area of concern is the timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.Under the current plan,about 10,000 American soldiers will be present in 2015,but will go down to 5,000 for 2016,and withdraw entirely by early 2017.Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has requested us and NATO to show some flexibility,General Campbell said.Both Counterterrorism and Train,Advise and Assist missions are complementary.President Obama has granted us some flexibility,enabling us to continue the TAA mission beyond 1 January.*
Most of the options I'm discussing with my senior leadership include allowing more flexibility on glide slope,allowing more flexibility on locations.None of my options allow bumping troop strength up to 20,000.We currently have 9,800 US-combined with NATO,12,900 troops.There are several special operations forces camps.I think you have to continue to keep the pressure on al-Qaida.Our counterterror capability is quite good.*
I have no doubt in my mind the Afghans have the capability to do what they need to do.It's just a confidence issue.But if we continue to withdraw at the rate we are today,they will feel abandoned.President Ghani has requested continued help with logisitics,intelligence and close air support.*
The Afghan National Security Forces have 352,000 members.The army and police have good cross-pillar cooperation.
In the last 45-60 days,I've seen more Afghan-Pakistani cooperation than I've ever seen before.There's more cooperation between the Afghan border police and the Pakistani Frontier Corps.*
Force protection for both our troops and contractors is utmost on my mind.Our green-on-blue incidents have gone way,way down,but we'll continue to look very,very hard at that.
So far,the nascent ISIL is more a rebranding of a few Taliban,but we'e still taking this potential threat,with its dangerous rhetoric and ideology,very,very seriously.President Ghani is quite concerned about ISIL.I've made it a priority of information for my forces,and we'll continue to work that hard.There is some talk of ISIL being present in the universities.*
Kabul is the fifth-fastest growing city in the world today,General Campbell noted.He had a chart displayed for the Senators which showed gains in Afghan literacy,cellphone use,roadbuilding and girls' education in recent years.