Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts

Monday, April 7, 2014

Monday Newsline:Asian Shares Lower;Indian Election;MH-370 Progress

Asian markets were mostly lower Monday on the disappointing US jobs report Friday,which fell short of analysts' growth projections.The Nikkei cratered 1.69%,while the HSI fell 0.74 and the ASX slipped 0.17.US stock futures were also lower.The Shanghai Composite defied the trend,rising 0.74%.
Wheat prices are up on widespread dryness in breadbasket areas from Ukraine to the United States.*
The world's largest democracy has begun its elections today as India goes to the polls.The nationalist BJP party is the frontrunner over the incumbent Congress Party.The BJP is led by Narendra Modi,Chief Minister of Gujarat state.Some label him as a fascist guilty of human rights violations,and he was denied entry to the US in 2005.He is popular in corporate circles as Gujarat state has done well.*
The search for flight MH-370 entered a new,more promising phase Monday as searchers zeroed in on the Australian Defence Ministry vessel Ocean Shield's detection of two extended audio events near the bottom of the Indian Ocean.The great depth of the pinging episodes consistent with the plane's flight recorders,one of which lasted for two hours twenty minutes and the other for thirteen minutes at some 4500 meters/2.8 miles,suggest why this search has been the most challenging in aviation history.
The pings were picked up by the US Navy's pinger locator device that the Ocean Shield was towing at depth over the new area off Western Australia's northern coast.The searchers need a third pinging event so they can triangulate the location and send the Blue Fin 21 submersible down to take still photos of the possible wreckage.It's a process that could require days to complete,retired Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston,the search coordinator,told reporters in a Perth press conference.He said we are very close to where we need to be.Clearly this is a most promising lead.In the search so far,it is probably the best information that we have had.*
In sport,Australian golfer Matt Jones won the Shell Houston Open,securing a place for himself in The Masters tournament this weekend in Augusta,Georgia.It was Jones' first PGA victory.American Matt Kuchar came in second,and Sergio Garcia of Spain took third.
Meanwhile,American Lexi Thommpson made the traditional leap into Poppy's Pond at Mission Hills Golf Club in Rancho Mirage,California as the winner of the Kraft Nabisco Open,the year's first major on the LPGA circuit.It was the fourth LPGA win for Thompson,19,who is known for her long drives.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Asia's Investment Surge;Goldman Sells China Stake

The mood is very upbeat,said Nick Good,Head of Strategy and Business Development Asia Pacific for BlackRock,attending the CFA Institute Annual Conference in Singapore.Asians believe in Asia.Seventy percent or more of any given portfolio is invested in Asia,and 50% of capital markets growth will take place in Asia.
We're seeing the rise of the Asian investor.Wealth in China has increased tenfold.Asians need to invest for the long term,and that dynamic will inform the growth of the region.They are looking for bond and income funds that meet their needs.
We are developing funds that cater to that market and educating about long term investing.We try and take a broad view of the markets,providing both active and index funds.You're seeing an emphasis on income funds.
Goldman Sachs says it is committed to China,despite its recent sale of a minority stake in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.Goldman unloaded its seven year investment in ICBC for 1.1 billion dollars.Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd estimates Goldman made about 12 billion dollars in dividends and sale proceeds on its 2.58 billion investment in ICBC.Many banks are selling such holdings to cover the new,more stringent Basel III capital requirements.
The world just went through a big trauma,a credit crisis,said CEO Lloyd Blankfein.Not all the fixes work.Sometimes the fixes need fixes.
BlackRock(BLK),Goldman Sachs(GS)

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Citigroup:Growth and Reallocation

Citigroup is looking to double or triple the number of branches in China over the next few years.We think China will grow about 7%,transitioning from exports to a domestic-led economy,said Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat.That transition seems to be going well.
I'm excited to go to Japan.Their officials and executives are quite excited.It's gonna take some time to play out.They've got to try Abenomics to reflate the economy.
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is jump-starting the economy through monetary easing and asset purchases.
We've identified 21 countries where we can get more out of the resources we have there.We'll move those resources to where we can get more out of them.It's a rebalancing,shifting them to places our customers and clients want to grow.The emerging markets, in particular the Asia Pacific,has been a big recipient of those shifted resources,Mr.Corbat noted.
Brazilian bank Itau has purchased Citigroup's Brazilian credit card unit for 1.37 billion dollars.
Citigroup(C)

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Voices and Trends in Wealth Management

We favour US equities to the emerging markets,said Kelvin Tay,Regional CIO for the Southern Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management.We like high yield corporate debt.We don't see a huge amount of risk.We're still positive on it at this stage,with an overweight on it.
Cyprus was a reminder that structural issues in Europe are far from over.We need to see that US growth is sustainable to the 3% GDP target that we have.We also need to see that China growth is achievable.
With strong US figures,the emerging markets will struggle for attention.Export numbers in Asia are sharply lower on sequestration in the US.
South Korean exports were worse than expected on the strong US dollar.Goldman Sachs says investors are buying Treasuries at fastest clip since 2009.
Global stocks have posted the best return of any investments for another quarter,but Stephen Wood,PhD of Russell Investments thinks it is unlikely that Q2 results will repeat the first quarter.There's a tug of war.This has been a very broad-based rally,but it also has a defensive character,too.Dr.Wood recommends a globally diversified,multi-asset portfolio constructed in a case-by-case,security-by-security way.
Carter Worth,Chief Market Technician at Oppenheimer,believes several stocks are fully priced,such as Johnson and Johnson and The Traveler's Companies.When does a stock become dangerous?We have a four-year bull market that has taken us to all-time highs.Markets don't normally go up 40-80%.Only four times has that happened.Go to cash,Mr.Worth advised.
Johnson and Johnson(JNJ),The Traveler's Companies,Inc(TRV)

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Cosmetics and the Luxury Retail Market

Spain,Italy and Greece are not in any healthy condition,according to William Lauder,Executive Chairman of cosmetics titan the Estee Lauder Companies.Central Europe is OK,not bad.Eastern Europe is better still.Germany,France and the Benelux are pretty solid.
Asia's our fastest growing market;China is the fastest in Asia.Chinese consumers are shopping both at home and abroad.There's still an awful lot of growth going on there.We're building for the long term.
The female consumer's behaviour is influenced by her employment;her spouse's employment;and the housing market.
Most of our competitors are European or Asian-based,such as LVMH and L'Oreal.According to the comparables,we are the world's leading prestige market for beauty.A customer will spend 35-50 dollars for our products,versus 500 for a handbag or 50,000 for a necklace.
In California,there is strong Australian buying within a 20 mile radius of LAX airport.It is the major gateway of the Australians to the US;20-30% of area retailers' business is from Australians,given the strong Australian dollar.
Estee Lauder(EL)

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

AIG Makes Strong Effort;AIA Spinoff Prospers

We are now putting in a concerted effort to reestablish AIG throughout the world,said CEO Robert Benmosche.We have AIU and American Home in Japan,as well as Lexington on the commercial side.
The US government was an excellent partner.It was only difficult when we dealt with compensation.We always are looking at market data.You want to be competitive.We've had a very good relationship with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.
We are attracting and keeping talent.In property casualty 2012,we didn't achieve our profit goals.We made great progress,but were down moderately from target.Sales of fixed annuities came down.They came in at the mid-eighties,rather than one.
I think I make a lot of money-about 10.5 million.It pays the bills.It's good.Pay didn't cause the crisis.When you lose 100 billion,you're entitled to take those losses and offset future taxes.That's the law-nothing special for AIG.
We are hiring and we are going to continue to hire.We want to be able to take a lap internally.We have centers set up around the country and world in low cost locations.We see our headcount going up,and our expenses going down.
All along ,we've been thinking about business continuity,hardening our technology and where we put our people.New York is a huge center of capabilities around data mining to help us underwrite our insurance better.
I'm feeling very good,although my diagnosis was pretty rough and the initial chemo didn't work.They found a targeted pill.I'm still negative.They're surprised and pleased,but I still run 3-4 days a week 3 miles at a time.
We'll go through 2014 and they'll take a look at it.I'll be 70,and if I still have the energy to stay on and they want me to,I'd be happy to do it,Mr.Benmosche indicated.
There was a better than expected 89% increase in 2012 net profit at AIA Group Ltd,which was spun off from AIG in October 2010,on market value gains and product improvements.New business was up 27% to a record 1.19 billion dollars.AIA is the third largest Asia-based insurer by market value.
American International Group(AIG),AIA Group Ltd(AAIGF:US)

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Europe and Asia:Voices and Trends

China is waiting for the new leadership in March,according to Ronald Wan,Managing Director at China Merchant Securities.For the real policies,it has to wait until Q2 or Q3.They need to prolong growth by increasing consumption and breaking up the state-owned entertprises.It makes it difficult for private enterprise to even lend money.
The key thing is the policy on urbanisation and consumption.The RMB will grow 2-3% this year.It's still relatively attractive.
The Hong Kong property market will grow 5-10% this year,said Henderson Land.
In Europe,there's been a big improvement in the periphery,said Mark Matthews,Head of Research-Asia at Bank Julius Baer.The massive pain they've been going through is starting to yield results.There are good things to look at even in beaten-up markets like France.
We went from an underperform to a neutral in Europe,adds Liz Ann Sonders,Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab.We're certainly sticking with that market perform.
Tech has been our longest term outperform rating.For now,we think you don't want to make a lot of sector bets in the market.
Jack Ablin,Executive Vice President at BMO Private Bank,said it's remarkable.I see more problems,more and more volatility.We probably want to play an equity exposure away from the US,or at least away from the consumer.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Euro Debt Crisis Means Cheap Assets

Spain is gonna be one of the two or three biggest markets for distressed assets,said Russell Platt of Forum Partners Investment Management.It could take 7-10 years in the courts to take control of the assets.There are about 140 billion euros of distressed assets available in Spain.
Germany is the biggest market for distressed assets-about 200 billion euros' worth.It's a chance to buy real estate cheaper.We see commercial properties at 50-60 cents on the dollar in the UK.
In the US,we're buying REITs mostly and mortgage-backed securities.We also like homebuilders.
PIMCO is one of the biggest buyers of distressed European assets.DIC Asset AG is a fund that buys distressed office properties in Germany.
Forum Partners is a global real estate investment management firm.It has 6 billion dollars of assets under management for institutions and family offices.With offices from London to Beijing and Santa Fe,it has invested in 17 countries in Europe and Asia.
DIC Asset AG(DAZ:Xetra),iShares Barclays CMBS Bond Fund(CMBS)

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Newsletter Founder:Slowly Working It Out-the global economic slowdown

Spain will take a bailout by year end,predicts Paul Krake,founder of the "View from the Peak" newsletter.The world is so dominated by QE and expansion of the balance sheet,that's all that matters.
This is about kicking the can down the road.It's about working through the process.This could take 5+ years.
I've been advising clients a Spanish bailout and a Greek bailout will occur around the same time.Portugal will need more money,but it's incremental compared to Greece.
Asia will continue to be affected by falling exports.Global growth ex-US will be very sluggish next year,Mr.Krake advised.
QE,or quantitative easing,is the buying of assets by central banks to support markets and the economy.
"View from the Peak" is a weekly macro piece on the economic,valuation and policy factors that drive asset classes and regions.They work with asset management firms, sovereign governments and high net worth families.
Paul Krake has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Monash University in South Africa.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Author and Advisor:A Financial World Tour

I don't see much progress in Europe,but I'm still hoping,said William Rhodes of William Rhodes Global Advisors.The French and the Germans are arguing about bank union.It's always too little,too late.They need a package with a time table they can meet.Only if the markets really move against them will they move.
The growth rates are negative in Spain and Italy.At 2.5-3%,only Germany is not in recession.
It's really an open question whether the Federal Reserve's QE3 will work.All of this bond-buying will have to be unwound.
All of Asia is slowing down.A change in leadership in China is at hand.They've got to convert over more to domestic consumption.There are a lot of doubts floating around.This new leadership is gonna have a lot of challenges ahead of it:a slow US economy;a slow Europe;a China dropping from 11-12% growth to 7%,Mr.Rhodes observed.
William Rhodes is a former Citibank vice president.He is the author of "Banker to the World:Leadership Lessons From the Front Lines of Finance."

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Qualcomm Posts Global Profits

One of the biggest success stories in the telecom space,Qualcomm has added 38 billion dollars in market value,posting 5.6 billion dollars in profits in the last year.Its vision is to power mobile phones and tablets with Qualcomm chips.The company is spending much on innovation.
CEO Paul Jacobs says Qualcomm's customers want micrographics technology.They want a lot of bandwidth.Qualcomm is getting to innovate in a lot of different areas for them.
Qualcomm is the single chip supplier to Windows mobile phones.The sales of its Snapdragon chip set have really taken off.Microsoft will use the Snapdragon chips in devices running its new Windows 8 platform.
Windows 8 is to be compatible with tablet PCs.It is the biggest upgrade since Windows 95,Qualcomm's partner Microsoft announced.
Based in San Diego,California,Qualcomm has 159 offices worldwide,including a major commitment in Asia.From Manila to Mexico,the company strives to assist the underserved wherever it does business,improving lives through connectivity.
Founded in 1985,Qualcomm is one of Fortune magazine's 100 Best Companies To Work For.
Qualcomm(QCOM)

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Japan:Gauging the Effects

Domestic demand and tourism will suffer in Japan,says Bruce Kasman,an economist at JP Morgan.We don't know the exact size of this disaster yet.This disaster is gonna be very large and short-lived.The rebound will begin in April as production comes back on line.
We think there's a lot of resiliency in the supply chain and production.
Growth captures.After you destroy,you rebuild.
The spillover will be felt in the rest of Asia.The U.S. economy won't feel it very much.Other Asian economies will feel it quite sharply.
In the U.S.,oil and food prices will surprise the Fed with their effect on inflation,but they will not act for the next 3-6 months,Mr.Kasman predicted.
In business for more than 200 years,JP Morgan is a part of JP Morgan Chase&Co.It provides a full range of financial services,from asset management to private banking and treasury management, to commercial,institutional and affluent clients in more than 100 countries.
JP Morgan Chase(JPM)

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Risk Management:Carlyle Group Mothballs Egypt Plans

Private equity firm The Carlyle Group has deferred plans to invest in Egypt.They have concerns over the recent change in leadership there.In Egypt,you need an official sign-off to make an investment.They feel that what's going on in Egypt isn't going to end anytime soon,and are concerned over getting local partners to exit a project.
Carlyle has an office in Egypt and will continue to work in Saudi Arabia and Turkey.As of 2009,they had 500 million dollars in their Middle East and North Africa fund.The group has a 40% stake in a Turkish hospital company,as well as a stake in a Saudi lighting fixture firm.
The Carlyle Group is a global alternative asset manager with more than 97.7 billion dollars under management.It combines global vision with local insight from its 19 offices that span the continents from North America to Asia.
Those who are interested in private equity may want to consider the PowerShares Global Listed Private Equity Portfolio(PSP).This exchange traded fund buys shares of 40-60 companies whose principal business is to invest in,and lend capital to,privately held companies.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Cushman CEO Sees No Big Real Estate Bubble

Glenn Rufrano,CEO of global real estate firm Cushman&Wakefield,has confidence there isn't a dramatic real estate bubble in China.Real estate is growing in China,but the potential there is dramatic.He has comfort the Chinese authorities are gonna be ahead of the bubble risk,and the market will sort the rents out.
Cushman&Wakefield will absolutely see a profit this year.They are planning to hire 800 workers in Asia,Australia,the Americas and Europe.At the appropriate time,they may have an initial public offering.
Cushman&Wakefield are commercial real estate brokers and consultants.With offices worldwide,they deliver integrated solutions in listing,management and finance to landlords,tenants and investors.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

SAP's View of the Asia-Pac

Business software titan SAP has a Q4 pipeline that looks strong in the Asia-Pacific region.They're seeing continued strength across Asia right now.
SAP thinks it has every reason to be confident in the future.Business is strong across Asia.India and China are seen as being their two favored children.It's a rising tide right now,and it's going to lift SAP up.
The Oracle v. SAP trial is a storm in a teacup.It's more noise from their bitter rival than anything else,in the opinion of Steve Watts,President of SAP Asia-Pacific-Japan.
Oracle is suing SAP for copyright infringement,fraud,breach of contract and intentional interference.SAP has admitted to a mistake by a subsidiary,and offered to pay Oracle 40 million dollars,but Oracle rejects that amount as insufficient.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

HSBC Sees Steady Growth

British bank HSBC's profits have doubled.Peter Wong,CEO of the bank's Asia-Pac division,says that this year the growth is quite sustainable.The loan growth has not had its full impact yet.Hong Kong is definitely a pocket of strength.So are Malaysia,Singapore,mainland China,India and Australia.Over the next couple of years,European GDP will be pretty low,affecting China,but China will still have a GDP of 10% this year and 8.5-9% in 2011.
HSBC has done a lot of background work to list in mainland China's stock market.China says it is a high priority.HSBC continues to build 15-20 branches a year in China.In India,they are gonna buy RBS assets,but mainly HSBC is growing organically.In China,HSBC has invested in ICBC and Ping An Insurance.
HSBC is very cautious in its mortgages.Customers do not pay more than 15% of their income.HSBC's portfolio is quite secure.
If Hong Kong continues to increase,it will form a bubble.It is stable for now,in Peter Wong's estimation.
HSBC Holdings,plc(HBC)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

IMF Addresses Today's Concerns

The International Monetary Fund,an autonomous UN agency,has been addressing the issues of the day recently.On the topic of trade imbalances,Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said not even full appreciation of the Chinese currency,the Yuan,will solve the total imbalances.Other measures are also necessary to achieve that:
1.Improve domestic demand in Asia.Asia is a global economic powerhouse.A country shouldn't hide behind its currency.
2.Maintain a strong focus on foreign investment.
3.Manage currency reserves.
4.Institute capital controls,if necesssary.
China has been bitterly criticized of late by German businessmen for hindering foreign companies,as well as by General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt.In response,China insisted foreign businesses were being treated fairly.
With regard to Friday's release of Euro-zone bank stress test results,IMF First Deputy Managing Director Joseph Lipsky hoped for broad coverage by the tests,transparency and remedial action as needed.We need a realistic scenario that provides stress and gives some good insight into the strength of the banking system.All the preconditions for the test that were needed are being fulfilled.
Mr.Lipsky wouldn't assume that any central bank is out of ammunition for dealing with the financial crisis.He doesn't fear for the political independence of the central banks,either.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Defining Financial Reality

Asia in general is the strong point of the global economy,says Michael Yoshikami,Chief Investment Strategist at YCMNET Advisors.He's thinking investors are getting over their initial panic over Greece.Not everything is going wrong,though Europe is essentially seen as an economy that's going to be struggling for years and years.He doesn't think the U.S. and China are gonna destroy each other.They're gonna work together to succeed.
If you're in a trading range,you watch for opportunities now that every thing's been trashed.There's way too much concentration on BP;Exxon Mobil and Chevron have some promise as investments.You have to get away from seeing the market as reality.The market is reaction plus sentiment.The economic fundamentals are reality,Mr.Yoshikami believes.
BP plc(BP),Exxon Mobil(XOM),Chevron(CVX)

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Euro-zone Confidence Improving

Ian Cheshire,CEO of Kingfisher,the world's third-largest home improvement retailer behind Home Depot and Lowe's,says they're seeing consumer confidence improve in the Euro-zone.They're not seeing big numbers.Kingfisher's sales were up one percent.Most people are waiting for unemployment to at least top out.There's a slight sense of wait and see,Mr.Cheshire noted.
To respond to the situation,Kingfisher is keeping very flexible in its supply chain.There's been a huge increase in shipping rates from Asia,necessitating the flexibility.Kingfisher is also focused on innovation in a flat market.People are going for bold patterns in wallpaper and the green trend.
You get big shocks,sudden spikes in business,Mr.Cheshire explained,and you have to be able to react.The first half of this year looks pretty tough.At best,we're looking for a second-half recovery,in Ian Cheshire's view.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Singapore Expects Solid Growth

Leo Yip of the Singapore Economic Development Board is expecting 4.5-6.5% growth this year,in tandem with the rest of Asia.That's exciting for us,he said.We think Singapore can play a role in companies expanding their Asian footprint.Singapore has excellent connectivity.It sits in the center of rising Asia,a global business city with a business infrastructure.As Asia rises,Asia is gonna demand more and more products and services that suit its own tastes.Singapore provides companies an excellent way to test those products and services for Asia.
We see the growth of Asia as a medium to long term trend,Mr.Yip explained.Singapore presents those companies with a useful proposition.We encourage companies to have a medium to long term Asian strategy.Singapore offers companies a place to integrate their Asian operations,in Mr.Yip's opinion.