Panorthodox Synod : GREETING OF ECUMENICAL PATRIARCH BARTHOLOMEW TO THE 11TH ASSEMBLY OF THE WORLD COUNCIL OF CHURCHES

Panorthodox Synod : GREETING OF ECUMENICAL PATRIARCH BARTHOLOMEW TO TH...: Ecumenical Patriarchate Permanent Delegation to the World Council of Churches Distinguished organizers and...

Eastern Europe Update: Ukraine, Bulgaria,INF Treaty

Since 6 January 2019, when the Tomos of Autocephaly was handed over to the new Orthodox Church of Ukraine, more than 100 parishes have left the Moscow Patriarchate for the​ OCU.This is more than left the MP in the five years since Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea  and instagtion of the Donbas War in Eastern Ukraine, said His Eminence Archbishop Yevstratiy (Zorya) of Chernihiv Nizhyn at a roundtable discussion.*
The majority of the Holy Synod of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, including His Holiness Patriarch Neophytos, reportedly backs the new Orthodox Church of Ukraine, but has referred the matter to the Synod's canonical committee for further study.*
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that the United States has suspended adherence to the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia for six months, during which time Russia may revive the agreement by withdrawing its illegal weapons from Europe.NATO agrees that Russia has persistently violated the Treaty by stationing cruise missiles in Europe.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she will continue to talk to Russia about the INF Treaty during the suspension.

NATO Defence Ministerial:Major Decisions Taken on New Commands - plus is Russia militarising Kaliningrad

The first day of the NATO Defence Ministerial has concluded in Brussels with big decisions being made on the new command structure elements.According to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg,speaking at a news conference to summarise the meeting:
We took major decisions to modernise the NATO command structure.It is the backbone of our Alliance,and it enables our 29 nations to act as one;it allows us to run our missions and operations,and to train and act in case of a crisis with the right forces in the right place at the right time.
We will establish a new joint force command for the Atlantic,to help protect sea lines of communication between North America and Europe.
We will establish a new support command for logistics,reinforcements and military mobility-improving the movement of troops and equipment is essential to our collective deterrence and defence.
We will also set up a cyber operations centre at our military headquarters in SHAPE to further strengthen our defence.*
There will also be some new land component commands,Mr.Stoltenberg said,but no final decisions on location have been taken.That will be addressed at the July Summit.The US has offered to host the new Atlantic command,and Germany has offered to host the new logistics support and enablement command.*
Reportedly,Germany said it could host the logistics command near Koln or Bonn.*
In response to a reporter's question about Russia beefing up its military posture in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania,Mr.Stoltenberg noted that:
We have seen that they are investing in their infrastructure;we have seen that they are strengthening their military presence in Kaliningrad;but whether they have now deployed Iskanders (short-range ballistic missiles) is something I will not comment on.That's an intelligence matter and I will not comment on our intelligence on these issues;but I will only call on Russia to be transparent.

Allied Spirit V:NATO Land Exercise Stresses Interoperablility

NATO Exercise Allied Spirit V is underway at the Hohenfels Training Area,Germany.It runs from 26 September to 15 October 2016 and involves some 2520 troops from eight countries.Besides the US,participants include Belgium;Canada;the Czech Republic;Germany;Italy;Lithuania;and the UK.*
The US Army is leading the drills,sending soldiers from the 2nd Cavalry;12th Combat Aviation Brigade;and the 40th Infantry Division California Army National Guard,Louisiana Army National Guard and Pennsylvania Army National Guard.Allied Spirit prepares forces in Europe to tactically interoperate and tests communications security among NATO Allies and partners.*
Lithuania's "Iron Wolf" Brigade is commanding Brigade HQ at Hohenfels,which is the US Army Training Command's facility.The multinational unified land operations promote both the interoperability and the integration of the participating forces as they confront the simulated aggressors.*
The drills are the follow-on to Allied Spirit IV,which took place in January 2016.

SecDef Sets Forth Strategy at EUCOM Change of Command Ceremony

General Curtis M. Scaparrotti,US Army,assumed command of US European Command on 3 May in Stuttgart,Germany and NATO forces as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) on 4 May in Mons,Belgium.He replaces General Philip Breedlove who is retiring after three years in the conjointly held posts.Described as being intelligent,deliberate and personable,General Scaparrotti has previously held commands in Iraq,Afghanistan,the Pentagon and the Republic of Korea.*
At the EUCOM change of command ceremony at Stuttgart's Patch Barracks,US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter described the US view of the challenges faced by NATO and the steps being taken to address them.EUCOM covers 51 countries in Europe and Eurasia,including Israel,Afghanistan and the NATO allies.
Under General Breedlove's leadership,Mr.Carter said,NATO forces have been writing a new playbook.They've been innovating to counter new challenges like cyber and hybrid warfare;integrating conventional and nuclear deterrence;and adjusting our posture and presence so that we can be more agile in responding to new threats.The NATO force that General Breedlove leaves behind is stronger than the one he inherited.*
We haven't had to prioritise deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank for the past 25 years;but while I wish it were otherwise,now we have to,despite the progress that we've made together since the end of the Cold War.We must demonstrate to potential foes that,if they start a war,we have the capabilities and capacity to ensure they regret it;because for a force to deter a conflict,it must show that it can dominate a conflict.*
Russia has appeared in recent years intent to erode the principled international order that has served us,our friends and allies,the international community,and Russia itself,so well for so long.Russia continues to violate the territorial integrity of Ukraine,Georgia and Moldova,and actively seeks to intimidate its Baltic neighbours.At sea and on land,in the air and space and cyberspace,Russian actors have engaged in challenging international norms-and,most disturbing,Moscow's nuclear sabre-rattling raises troubling questions about Russian commitment to strategic stability;their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons;and whether they respect the profound caution that nuclear age leaders showed with respect to the brandishing of nuclear weapons.*
In response,the US is taking a strong and balanced approach to counter Russia's aggression.We're strengthening our capabilities,our posture,our investments,our plans and our allies and partners,all without closing the door to working with Russia where our interests align,and we will continue to make clear that Russia's aggressive actions only serve to further its isolation and unite our alliance.Since Russia began its illegal attempt to annex Crimea a little over two years ago,the US has made valuable investments in reinforcing our NATO allies.For example,we're contributing to NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),and stepping up our training and exercises under Operation Atlantic Resolve.
Our recent budget submission builds on that significantly.To further reinforce our NATO allies and build our deterrence posture in the face of Russia's aggression,this budget significantly increases funding for our European Reassurance Initiative,making a total investment of 3.4 billion dollars for this year,fiscal year 2017,which more than quadruples the amount we requested last year.This will allow us to increase the amount of warfighting equipment as well as the number of US forces,including reserve forces,rotating through Europe to engage with friends and allies.This increase supports head-to-toe rotations that maintain the persistent presence of an Armoured Brigade Combat Team,which will give us a total of three BCTs continuously present in Europe.It supports more training and exercises with our European allies and friends.It supports more warfighting gear,including forward-stationing equipment for an additional Armoured Brigade Combat Team by the end of 2017.It also supports the pre-positioning of equipment for a division headquarters and other enablers in Europe,such as this equipment,and along with assigned Army Airborne and Stryker Brigade Combat Teams,and Marine Corps heavy vehicles and equipment already in Europe.
All this will allow us to rapidly form a highly capable combined arms ground force of division-plus strength that can respond theatre-wide if necessary-and it helps strengthen our regional air superiority posture,among other things allowing us to keep an additional F-15C tactical fighter squadron based in Europe,and also improve airfield infrastructure to enhance operations for Air Force fighters and Navy Maritime Patrol Aircraft-all this to reinforce our enduring commitment to the security of our European partners.
Our budget also reflects how we're doing more in more ways with our NATO allies given increased Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic.It includes building toward a continuous arc of highly capable Maritime Patrol Aircraft operating over the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap and Norway's North Cape.It also includes delivering Europe's first stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft to our British allies and,given Russia's use of hybrid warfare,as exemplified by the so-called "little green men" in Ukraine,we're investing in more rotational presence of US Special Operations Forces exercising and training here in Europe.And,as we look to address the threats of the future as well as today,we're making significant investments in new technology-and when coupled with revised operational concepts,these technologies will ensure that we can deter and if necessary win a high-end conventional fight in an Anti-Access Area Denial environment across all domains and warfighting areas:air,land,sea,space,cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum.
These include new unmanned systems;enhanced ground-based air and missile defences;new long-range anti-ship weapons;the Long Range Strike Bomber;and also innovations in technologies like the electromagnetic rail gun;lasers;and new systems for Electronic Warfare;space and cyberspace.Finally,our budget also invests in modernising our nuclear deterrent.With these commitments,we will continue to build our capacity to deter a potential adversary like Russia,Mr.Carter stated in Stuttgart,Germany.

The US,Germany and NATO - the bilateral piece of the security puzzle

On 24 April,President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a news conference in Hannover,Germany.The President gave a readout of their bilateral talks on the occasion of the first visit of an American president to Hannover:
Most of our discussions,as Chancellor Merkel indicated,focused on urgent security challenges,Mr.Obama said.Germany is a valued member of the coalition to destroy ISIL.German aircraft support the campaign and German personnel in Iraq are training local forces.German assistance is helping Iraq stabilise and rebuild the areas it liberates from ISIL and our coalition continues to make progress.
Today we discussed additional steps that NATO could take to support the campaign,as well as economic assistance to Iraq that the G7 could pledge at next month's summit in Japan.Germany is obviously a very strong partner in the effort to provide humanitarian relief to the people of Syria and Iraq.We remain deeply concerned about the upsurge of fighting in Syria in recent days,and we continue to agree that the only real solution is a political solution that moves Syria toward an inclusive government that represents all Syrians.
Given the horrific attacks that we've seen around the world,including Paris,Brussels,Istanbul and San Bernardino,California-and on a much more frequent basis we've seen violence and attacks that's taking place in the Middle East-we discussed the importance of maintaining our strong security cooperation.In Afghanistan,we'll continue to help strengthen Afghan forces as they continue to push back against al-Qaida,the Taliban and ISIL.We'll continue to support the Libyan people and the new Libyan government as it seeks to extend security across its country.We agreed that the US and Germany are going to remain very strong counterintelligence and intelligence partners,and we're committed to using all the tools at our disposal to prevent terrorists from traveling and plotting attacks-and that includes improved information-sharing between our countries and within Europe-and,as always,we'll do so while upholding our values and civil liberties,inculding the privacy of citizens here and in the US.
I want to once again commend Angela for her courageous leadership in the response to migrants who are fleeing the Syrian conflict and conflicts elsewhere in the region.Perhaps because she once lived behind a wall herself,Angela understands the aspirations of those who've been denied their freedom and who seek a better life.And I know the politics around this issue can be difficult in all of our countries.We did discuss the EU's recent agreement with Turkey and Angela and I agreed that our nations can respond to that challenge in a way thatmis both humane and ensures our security.
And finally,as we look ahead to this summer's NATO summit in Warsaw,we discussed the importance of keeping the alliance strong with the investments that's needed for or collective defence.We continue to augment,on a rotational basis,NATO forces in Eastern Europe,including the Baltic States.As I've said since the very beginning of my presidency,we have a treaty obligation to defend every NATO member-and we will.Beyond the alliance,we welcome the formation of a new government in Ukraine,which we encourage to continue the political,economic and energy reforms that can deliver progress for the Ukrainian people.Chancellor Merkel,along with President Hollande,have been tireless in their pursuit of a peaceful anddurable solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine,and we agreed that all sides need to uphold the commitments they have made,and that sanctions against Russia can and should be lifted only when Russia fully complies with its commitments under the Minsk agreement,the President said.*
For her part,Chancellor Merkel said that Germany has become a more active partner,I think one can safely say,because we are also threatened.Our own security is threatened and we realise that we cannot ensure this on our own.We have to do this in our alliance,and in certain areas we have shouldered a long-term mission that we're going to continue-if we look at Afghansitan,for example.In a way, we've had a change of paradigm in the sense that we see this challenge of IS as something that is very acute,so we send weapons into a conflict area;we gave them to the Peshmerga-a completely new step compared to our past policies.
Looking at the terrorist threat-against France,for example-we've shouldered responsibility for a mission in Northern Africa,which is also a new thing as well,leaving the Congo mission aside where we spent some time;but if we meet in Germany,if we meet at the G7,or,again,in Warsaw-we shall have other opportunities to meet,the President and I-we shall address all of these issues,so,let me say for me,the future with this president is much more important than the past right now.We know that we obviously have to make additional efforts as regards our possibilities to defend ourselves;we have to put in more equipment,more personnel;we know the targets NATO has submitted to us;we think that the whole positioning of our Federal Armed Forces reflects fully the sense that we need to shoulder this national responsibility also as regards,for example,cyber threats-something that we've neglected to do over the past years.And I think that it helps-it helps us to tackle the challenges and to master them,and the cooperation with the US is indispensable.Looking at the larger neighbourhood of Europe,the transatlantic cooperation within NATO,but also other fora,is also highly essential for maintaining or own security and safety,Mrs.Merkel noted.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets religious leaders, photo op with Erdogan,Patriarch Bartholomew - October 2015

Kaymer Defends US Open Title at Chambers Bay

German golfer Martin Kaymer,30,is defending his US Open Championship trophy at Chambers Bay in University Place,Washington.Chambers Bay is a public,links style golf course on the Puget Sound-the type of course developed in ancient Scotland,rather than the standard type of golf course.Kaymer won the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst #2,a standard golf course in North Carolina.Kaymer spoke to the media at a Monday press conference.
A links style course has massive bunkers,fescue grass fairways and open terrain,as opposed to forested.
I believe we are going to play three British Opens this year,Kaymer joked,referring to the three links style courses at Chambers Bay in Washington,St.Andrews in Scotland,and Whistling Straits in Wisconsin that are on the PGA Tour this season.
I think the guys from the UK might have a bit of an advantage this week,Kaymer noted,because that is what they grew up on.Honestly,I think it's a great golf course.In a way,you have to be very creative.It's unusual for a US Open course,but I think for those of us from Europe,we welcome such a course.
I said to my caddy,this is probably the toughest round in our career,because of all the expectations.I have to challenge myself on Sunday,not challenge the other players.If you really focus on the right thing,it shouldn't be that complicated.
There are so many guys who can win a golf tournament today-even if you are #250 in the world.The field is very hard to beat.You have to go with Rory McIlroy.I think Jason Day has a very good chance.Phil Mickelson-I think he has a good chance,knowing how aggressive,how creative he can be.He's kind of under the radar,Kaymer told reporters gathered at Chambers Bay for the US Open Championship,the most grueling test in golf.The tournament runs Thursday through Sunday and is being broadcast by Fox Sports.

Risk Management:What Companies Must Know

Companies must understand threats before going into a market,said Chris Torrens,director of global risk analysis at Control Risks.It's just about mitigating against that risk.There's a clear security risk in many markets.The longer term risks may be less obvious to begin with.There's corruption and social risk of the need to work with local communities or face security risk.*
The challenge arises when you have unforseen events such as the crash of MH-17 in Ukraine or an ash cloud.We tend to be drawn to those areas where conflict occurs or is likely to occur.As a company,we focus on political,operational and security risk.Many companies are just used to the bad headlines.Different risks cause different problems for different companies.*
The risk environment feels at this moment to be around a 7.5 or an 8,but many of these are recurring,ongoing crises.Ukraine is a major worry,but it's about being prepared,Mr.Torrens explained.*
One example of a current European risk is the possibility that,if natural gas is shut off from Ukraine,Germany will run out of it in February.

Publicis-Omnicom:the Meaning of the Merger

The merger of Publicis and Omnicom is a big,bold move,strategically counterculture and structurally a bit clunky,said Sir Martin Sorrell,CEO of advertising and public relations firm WPP Group.They have to jump regualtory hurdles.There will be impacts on clients and their people.We're already seeing a certain degree of disruption,which we will seek to capitalise on.*There will be two large companies-ourselves and Publicis Omnicom Group.It makes you a little more energetic.We've done five or six deals in Brazil,in the UK,and two in Asia.I wanted to signal to our people that we want to be a little more energetic.We have 165,000 people in 110 countries.Size for size's sake,I'm not sure there's anything in that.*Our clients probably lowered their earnings estimates.They're getting there by cost-cutting,small leaps-a focus on cost,finance and procurement that shows in the lack of top line growth.It can't continue forever.*Western Europe,the UK and Germany are stronger than people realise.July surprised us a little on the upside,Sir Martin Sorrel noted.

Prologis Industrial REIT Sees Good Signs

Prologis is the world's largest industrial real estate investment trust.CEO Hamid Moghadam cites FedEx,UPS,Amazon and Wal-Mart as being among the warehouse firm's largest customers.We think economic growth and the lack of construction is gonna give us pricing power,Mr.Moghadam said.Ecommerce is probably the biggest renter and housing the least,and those in the middle are also growing.
Housing affects our smaller buildings.Under 100,000 square feet,we have about 10% vacancy.That's finally happening this year.
Overseas,we're seeing really good demand on domestic consumption.Japan is doing well because it's changing from an export to a domestic import economy.Spain,Italy and the UK are going strong.France is the weakest.President Hollande's policies have frightened people,and there's a lot of flight capital.
If occupancies drop to the 90s or below as in 2009,I get worried.We're a conservative bunch and we'd like to see it higher,Mr.Moghadam admitted.
UBS is to increase its Asia corporate advisory head count by 10% on the region's growth forecast.
Germany's industrial output was up in February on economic recovery.
Alcoa's earnings topped estimates on growing demand for aircraft.
Prologis(PLD),UBS AG(UBS),Alcoa Inc(AA)

Voices and Trends in European Business

Northern Europe is gonna do just fine because the US will have strong growth,and they will do well off that,according to Joseph McAlinden,Chief Investment Officer at Catalpa Capital.People are gonna feel wealthier and spend,which is good for the world economy.The US economy,the stock market is the buy on the gold seam right now.
French consumer confidence fell in March on the stalled economy.
US durable goods orders were up more than forecast.US home values are at their highest level since 2007.
An EU report says the employment outlook is very bleak across Europe.
UK banks must raise 38 billion dollars to make up for a capital shortfall,the Bank of England says.
London remains the world's top financial centre,says the Global Financial Centres Index.
VTB has the most exposure to Cyprus of the Russian banks,according to Standard and Poor's.The EU says the Cypriot bank tax is not a template for future bailouts.
Credit Suisse is to buy Morgan Stanley's Europe wealth management business.Erricson is in talks to buy Microsoft's IPTV business.
The euro has traded below 1.28 for the first time since November.
German plant and machine orders were unchanged in February on weak Euro-zone demand.
Credit Suisse(CS),Microsoft(MSFT),Morgan Stanley(MS),Erricson(ERIC)

Cosmetics and the Luxury Retail Market

Spain,Italy and Greece are not in any healthy condition,according to William Lauder,Executive Chairman of cosmetics titan the Estee Lauder Companies.Central Europe is OK,not bad.Eastern Europe is better still.Germany,France and the Benelux are pretty solid.
Asia's our fastest growing market;China is the fastest in Asia.Chinese consumers are shopping both at home and abroad.There's still an awful lot of growth going on there.We're building for the long term.
The female consumer's behaviour is influenced by her employment;her spouse's employment;and the housing market.
Most of our competitors are European or Asian-based,such as LVMH and L'Oreal.According to the comparables,we are the world's leading prestige market for beauty.A customer will spend 35-50 dollars for our products,versus 500 for a handbag or 50,000 for a necklace.
In California,there is strong Australian buying within a 20 mile radius of LAX airport.It is the major gateway of the Australians to the US;20-30% of area retailers' business is from Australians,given the strong Australian dollar.
Estee Lauder(EL)

Ladies European Tour Concludes in Dubai With a Chinese Win

The Ladies European Tour has ended its season with the Omega Dubai Ladies Masters at Emirates Golf Club in Dubai,UAE.American Lexi Thompson yielded her title to China's Shanshan Feng on Sunday and her final round 21 under par 69.Dewi Claire Schreeful of the Netherlands was second with a 16 under par 69;third place on the leader board was shared by Caroline Masson of Germany and Becky Brewerton of Wales.
Carlota Ciganda of Spain won the Handa Order of Merit for the season with her earnings total of 251,289.95 euros.She was also named Rookie of the Year.
The tournament was played out against the looming backdrop of the ultramodern skyline of the desert city.
Following her win,Swiss watchmaking titan Omega named Feng a brand ambassador,adding her to a list including Greg Norman,Sergio Garcia and Michelle Wie.Fiancial terms were not disclosed.
In a statement,Omega said it is proud that this outstanding competitor,whose smile lights up every course she plays on,has joined its family of golfing brand ambassadors.The brand looks forward to celebrating with Shanshan Feng each time she adds to her already impressive list of victories and achievements on the golf course.
Besides Omega,tournament sponsors included Gulf News,Drydocks World,Maritime World,Mercedes Benz,Emirates NBD and CNN.

Euro Debt Crisis Means Cheap Assets

Spain is gonna be one of the two or three biggest markets for distressed assets,said Russell Platt of Forum Partners Investment Management.It could take 7-10 years in the courts to take control of the assets.There are about 140 billion euros of distressed assets available in Spain.
Germany is the biggest market for distressed assets-about 200 billion euros' worth.It's a chance to buy real estate cheaper.We see commercial properties at 50-60 cents on the dollar in the UK.
In the US,we're buying REITs mostly and mortgage-backed securities.We also like homebuilders.
PIMCO is one of the biggest buyers of distressed European assets.DIC Asset AG is a fund that buys distressed office properties in Germany.
Forum Partners is a global real estate investment management firm.It has 6 billion dollars of assets under management for institutions and family offices.With offices from London to Beijing and Santa Fe,it has invested in 17 countries in Europe and Asia.
DIC Asset AG(DAZ:Xetra),iShares Barclays CMBS Bond Fund(CMBS)

Asset Allocation:A Standard Chartered View

We believe the U.S. economy is stronger than most people believe it to be,said Steve Brice,Chief Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank.We do believe we're in a more constructive risk environment,but it's not gonna be a straight line,in our opinion.
We are overweight global equities.The dividend yield in the U.S.,Japan and Germany is significantly above government bond rates.It makes total sense from a global equities perspective.We are also overweight corporate debt.We are overweight the U.S.,China and Korea.We do see high dividend yields in Malaysia,Mr.Brice added.
The case for buying Europe is based on the sentiment being awful;cheap valuations;shares trading at a 49% discount,versus a 20% premium in the U.S.;and the dividend yield at a 320 point spread to the German bund,according to Katie Koch of Goldman Sachs Wealth Management.The smart thing is to initiate or add to positions;but keep some dry powder.Up to 25% could be in emerging markets;the other 75% will include some exposure to emerging markets,which means you will have over half of your return from emerging markets,Ms.Koch explained.

European Outlook:Fear and Dealing With Fear

A recent stock market uptick was essentially a bear market rally,said Michael Woolfolk,PhD,Senior Currency Strategist and Managing Director at Bank Of New York Mellon.Until we get a resolution to the Greek exit question,the market will continue to be defensive.With the Greek election on the 17th,there is likely to be further turmoil in Europe.There's quite a bit of movement from the periphery into the core.The concern is,what's gonna happen to the periphery?The next step is,the fear factor is so great,they start to move out of Germany.The status of the U.S. dollar is unique in the global financial system.The move to cash will be overwhelmingly U.S. dollars.How far are government officials prepared to go in financing the periphery?You're already starting to see some cracks in the willingness of Europe to take care of its own,Dr.Woolfolk observed.Larry Summers,former U.S. Treasury Secretary and President Emeritus of Harvard University,thinks the situation in Europe is very difficult.The single currency is brittle.The risk is in lack of confidence and self-fulfilling fear.A central bank wants to bend over backwards to be reassuring that liquidity is there.It's a kind of bargain between the different actors.The overwhelming imperative is to instill more confidence than exists today,current Harvard professor Larry Summers counseled. Bank of New York Mellon(BK)

Chief Market Strategists:Grappling With Greece-and who may ultimately win

Even if some problems are solved in Europe,we still have more to go,according to Nick Colas,Chief Market Strategist at ConvergEx Group.Germany is a special case,a high growth export economy,sending such things as machine tools to China.Spain is like Florida:housing driven,with homes for retirees.
Europe's got to firewall a bunch of the issues in Italy,Spain and Portugal.What they're really trying to do is buy time.We in the U.S. are doing everything to keep rates low on the monetary side;Europe has embraced austerity.We are trying to keep growth going.We shall see who wins.
Leadership is lacking,adds Andrew Economos,Head of Sovereign&Institutional Strategy,Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management.Greek politicians are setting themselves up for the April election.A deal is done.It's really a question of getting the three political parties in line.
We'll have this rolling crisis as we sweep through the periphery.Germany will guarantee the debt and China will take a stake.I think it means ample liquidity.Ultimately,it flows into Asian markets,Mr.Economos believes.
ConvergEx Group is a provider of mission-critical software and services to asset managers and financial intermediaries globally.Serving more than 4,000 institutional customers in 22 cities worldwide,their products and services span the investment life cycle.
JP Morgan Chase(JPM)

Managing Director:Where To Shelter Now

We're still very concerned about the situation in Europe,said Adrian Mowat,Managing Director and Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at JP Morgan Chase.What's gonna happen with France and Germany as they recapitalise their banks?We look forward to the G20 meeting November 3-4 in Cannes.
Our advice would be to reduce into that rally.We're concerned because the European Central Bank doesn't seem to get it.At the moment,they're still concerned about regulatory matters and they don't want to grow their capital base.
We need to look out for Chinese inflationary numbers.Inflation will eventually come off there.Our belief is that Europe will get worse before it gets better.Think about capital preservation at this point in time,keeping to U.S. dollar cash,Mr.Mowat advised.
JP Morgan Chase(JPM)

Leading Economist Analyses Euro Debt Crisis

The swap lines that have been set up between central banks are positive,according to C.Fred Bergsten,Director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.They show that the Federal Reserve and the Europeans are in communication.The European banks are in need of more capitalisation.This kind of thing buys time.
The European Central Bank has indicated it's not gonna let someone go belly-up,making a Lehman mistake.The Europeans have created this European Financial Stability Fund,which is an embryonic European Treasury.It's something like the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program.On the financial support side,I think they're moving in the right direction.
The strong Europeans deserve criticism.The strong Northern Europeans need to take expansionary measures.The Germans have an overwhelming interest in preserving the euro and the European Union.They are the ones who have the heft to make things happen.
The Europeans need to get on a clear path toward fiscal unification to go along with monetary union.In the mean time,the ECB needs to lend to governments and banks to keep the financial system afloat.A two-track strategy is needed,Dr.Bergsten believes.
C.Fred Bergsten has been Director of the Peterson Institute since its founding in 1981.Before that,he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1977-81 under President Jimmy Carter.