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Archiepiscopal Encyclical on the Apostolic Visit of His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch BARTHOLOMEW to the United States - From the Archdiocese - Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America

Archiepiscopal Encyclical on the Apostolic Visit of His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch BARTHOLOMEW to the United States - From the Archdiocese - Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew to Visit Greece and the USA - Update:visit moved till later in the year

His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople has accepted invitations to visit Greece and the USA.On 17 April 2019,His Grace Bishop Thespies,Protesynkellos (Chief Secretary) of the Archdiocese of Athens was received by His All-Holiness Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople.The bishop brought an invitation from His Beatitude Archbishop Ieronymos II of Athens and All Greece to visit Athens and preside at the opening of the St.Porphyrios Centre for Gerontology and Welfare Support in Dilesi,Thessalia Sterea Ellada on 23 May.The event will also be attended by President of Greece Prokopios Pavlopoulos.
Patriarch Bartholomew accepted the invitation and conveyed his warmest paschal greetings to Archbishop Ieronymos.*
Earlier,it was reported by The National Herald that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo invited His All-Holiness to visit the United States in July and address a Conference on the Natural Environment.Patriarch Bartholomew is acknowledged by the international community as a leading voice for the conservation of nature.It has been decided,however,that the Patriarchal visit will be made in the autumn instead,after new Archbishop Elpidophoros has had time to settle into his new ministry.
While in the US,His All-Holiness,to the delight of Greek Americans and other philhellenes,will also make his first archpastoral visit to the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America in ten years.The Archdiocese is an eparchy of the Ecumenical Patriarchate and some of its metropolitans serve on the Holy and Sacred Synod of the Patriarchate.

The Next Crisis:CEOs Plead With President,Congress

A group of CEOs met with President Barack Obama and Members of Congress Wednesday in an effort to educate them about what would happen if the nation defaults on its debt,a prospect that will be realised on October 17,if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling.Among those participating were Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase.
They shouldn't use the US failing on its obligation to meet its debt as a cudgel,Mr.Blankfein said.There's no precedent for default.We really haven't seen this before,and I'm not anxious to be part of the process witnessing this.*
The CEOs had a grim feeling following their meeting with Republicans in Congress.Congress is completely out of touch with Wall Street and the general economy,according to Bloomberg TV contributor Dawn Kopecki.They have no idea how bad it would be if the nation defaults on its debt.Mortgage rates will start widening.You're not dealing with business school graduates down in Washington,D.C.,Ms.Kopecki said.
The debt ceiling issue is legislatively separate from the budget impasse that has shuttered the federal government for more than two days now.It is related,howvever,by the fact that some House Republicans intend to use it as a political tactic,just as they are using the government shutdown,regardless of the harm it causes.
The chaos partly reflects the internecine conflict going on within the Republican party between moderates and the far right;and,some say,the leadership style of a president who didn't negotiate enough early on.It's resulted in dysfunction on a grand scale.

Chief Market Strategist:What To Look At Now

There really is a sense that something very profound is happening in Spain,said Stephen Wood,PhD,Chief Market Strategist at Russell Investments.There's a sense they're on the edge of something big.It's the fourth largest economy in Europe.We're facing one of the first global stimulus packages in four years.
The UK is just chugging along as it always has.I would have to say the US right now has much stronger fundamentals.They may be better than China right now.Corporations have strong balance sheets.
You need globally diversified,multi-asset portfolios.The Federal Reserve is forcing people up the risk spectrum.I would be looking at emerging markets and corporate debt,Dr.Wood advised.
Stephen Wood conducts research on the economy,capital markets,portfolio strategies and investor behaviour.He interfaces with Russell's institutional clients and retail partners to communicate the firm's perspectives on the global market,investment process and portfolio management.He is also a prominent media spokesman for the company's views.

MIT Professor:Finance and Politics

The riskiness of the market isn't nearly as predictable as it used to be,points out Andrew Lo,Professor of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management.Factors are pushing the markets.The entire sector is getting hit,not individual companies.
The Americans and Europeans must fix political problems.Fiscal integration in Europe is really inevitable.All of this debt on banks' balance sheets must be dealt with.There must be write-downs,recapitalisation and ultimately privatisation.We're waiting on the edge of our seats for these politicians to get their acts together.
We have to understand the global linkages across all these platforms.Any kind of coordinated activity means that things are really bad.Central banks have relatively few tools.Ultimately it's the political process that has to create the atmosphere for resolution.
We've been dealing with a lot of structural issues.Spending in the short run will help,but it is unsustainable.Ultimately,the only way to do it is cold turkey.Investors are scared.We're staring into the abyss.There are a lot of people in cash.They need to be able to invest in risk assets for their retirement.We need to restore trust in the financial system,Professor Lo reflected.
Dr.Lo has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.He is an authority on hedge funds and financial engineering.His books include "Dynamics of the Hedge Fund Industry" and "Market Efficiency:Stock Market Behaviour in Theory and Practice."

Asset Manager:Fairly Good News Ahead-and what limits it

I think we're going into a fairly good news economy,said Christian Thwaites,CEO of Sentinel Investments.The regional Federal Reserve Banks reported gains;exports and imports look good.It's gonna be difficult to get beyond 2.5-3% growth,however,because the government is a drag on the economy.
Manufacturing has posted some very impressive productivity numbers.That's the way employers would rather grow,than by hiring more people.The employment picture is only gonna improve very,very gradually.
The inflation number is not a problem.Inflation in China is not down to a point they are comfortable with.There is definitely a very robust consumption story from China.
It's a more subdued consumer recovery in the U.S.Play it carefully.Choose very good,solid,well-managed consumer discretionary companies if that's where you're going to go.You're only going to see 3-5% growth,rather than the 7-8% you saw during past recoveries,Mr.Thwaites noted.
Since 1934,Sentinel Investments has grown to manage more than 18 billion dollars in mutual fund and institutional accounts.As a provider of core,back to basics strategies,standing the tests of time is their criterion for success.

Author and Professor:Getting Back to Prosperity

The best thing is for the creditors and authorities to get a deal that helps Greece to grow,in the view of John B. Taylor,Professor of Economics at Stanford University.Each side is gonna try to get the best deal they can.If they can put in some good economic growth plans,I think that's the answer to this-to get Europe back on the growth track.The growth in the early eighties was 5.9%.Steady as you go,keeping the tax rate low-that's what my research shows.
We in America could get into a situation like Greece.We can get back on track with just some sensible adjustments.It shouldn't be that hard.The Fed has bought so much debt,people don't know how they're gonna get out of that,so the banks are sitting on all that cash.
We just have to contain the entitlement growth.It'll lead to a better system.We got away from all this in the eighties and nineties,but we fell back into it,the interventionist policies.Get back to predictable,reliable monetary policies and we'll be in good shape,Dr.Taylor feels.
John Taylor is a former member of the President's Council of Ecomomic Advisors from 1989-91.He is currently a Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution.Dr.Taylor is author of the book "First Principles:Five Keys To Restoring America's Economic Prosperity."

Fiscal Reform:Geithner's Global Optimism

In the view of U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner,the journey to fiscal responsibility is well underway worldwide.In the U.S.,Mr.Geithner said,the important thing for the economy now is to lock in reforms to bring down the long term deficit.It's not surprising that average people are sceptical of Washington.I'm confident we will start the process.I think it's achievable.There's an emerging consensus on how much we have to do-four trillion in cuts-and the time frame.
The more details you have,the more credible it's gonna be.Faced with enormous challenge,Washington has always come together.You have to do it in a balanced,comprehensive way.There's no way to do this without changing our tax code.Life's about alternatives.We need a balanced,comprehensive package that will add modestly to the burden of the most fortunate Americans.
We have to earn the confidence of investors,but I didn't have to reassure foreign investors when Standard&Poor's downgraded their U.S. credit outlook to negative.We don't know how much is gonna be possible,but we have good prospects of laying down a foundation.
For its part,Europe is doing incredibly difficult reforms.The leaders of Europe have said they will do whatever is necessary to address the sovereign debt issue,and they're making some progress,in Timothy Geithner's estimation.
Before assuming his cabinet post,Mr.Geithner was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,where he played an integral role in dealing with the financial crisis,assisting his predecessor at Treasury,Hank Paulson.Although initially disliked by some in Congress for mistakes he made on his income taxes some years ago,he has developed a decent working relationship with lawmakers over time.

Global Commodity Crunch Concerning

A global commodity crunch is driving prices up with little relief in sight.Freezes in China,droughts in Russia and Australian floods,coupled with emerging market diets that are tending toward more protein and sugar,are generating costs that lead to civil unrest worldwide.
Citigroup says that corn and soybean prices will remain elevated for the next 6-12 months.U.S. corn and soybean production are down.Algerians are paying up to 30% more for staples.
Abdolreza Abbassian of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation thinks we are entering a very precarious situation.We do not see any good news coming in from the crop side or the weather angle.In terms of prices,we are already as bad as 2008.Commodity exchange traded funds are also affecting prices as investor demand for shares continues to increase.
We would like rules and regulations and transparency by investors,Mr.Abbassian said.The weather will be the main driver in the months ahead.It is a very unpredictable and often unfavorable weather outlook,the FAO official noted.

Molycorp To Help Fill The China Gap

Molycorp Minerals is stepping up to the task of revitalising the U.S. rare earth elements industry as China cuts back on its exports of the strategic materials,which are vital to high tech industry and national security.China has an increasing internal demand for the minerals,which is currently at 60% of its production.
Mark Smith,Molycorp's cordial CEO,says there is an absolutely overwhelming demand for these materials.Rare earth processing,setting up the circuits,is a very time-consuming process.Molycorp will proceed carefully and with good chemical engineering.
At its Mountain Pass,California facility,Molycorp has one of the world's largest and richest rare earth deposits.It will take an additional 100-200 million dollars to double production by 2012.So far,20,000 tons per year have been funded.The additional money would come from certain interested parties.We expect to announce some good news in that regard in the next 3-6 months,Mr.Smith indicated.
The U.S. rare earth industry withered as China became the world's dominant producer of the minerals used in everything from cell phones to wind turbines and miltary hardware,a fact now regretted in the halls of Congress.A bill providing for revitalisation of the rare earth industry died in the last session of Congress, when it was passed by the House,but the Senate failed to take it up.The legislation,which authorised loan guarantees for rare earth projects,may be reintroduced in the new Congress.
Molycorp Minerals(MCP)

China's European Concerns

According to David Gosset,Director of the China Europe International Business School,you have a lot of worries in China about the European Union and Euro-zone.China wants them to succeed in order to counterbalance the U.S.
The big story for the business world for the next 5-10 years is the Chinese growth in consumer demand,which will shape global business.The EU has failed to lift restrictions on China,damaging its credibility in the Asian powerhouse.Europe has joined the U.S. in criticising China's failure to allow its currency to appreciate enough,resulting in trade imbalances.
On Saturday,December 25,China made a surprise hike in interest rates to cool off growth and prevent inflation.The move had only a brief,minor effect on global markets,if any-perhaps restraining them a bit.
The China Europe International Business School is located in Shanghai.Granting MBA degrees,it was officially established as an independent business school in 1994.

China Dominates Rare Earth Metals

Please note that this week,in addition to this post,two other posts of global interest have been published in the Extra Content blog.One deals with NATO ally Greece's debt crisis resolution program.The other explores the nature of Chinese naval power in the Asia-Pacific region.You may visit Extra Content by clicking on the link in the right column.
Speaking in Brussels last week,Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was in a defensive mode.He said Europe shouldn't join the call for China to release its currency,the Yuan,from tight control.The problem wasn't with the Yuan,but with the U.S. dollar,Mr.Wen remarked.He also claimed China wasn't using rare earth metals as a bargaining chip with Japan.
There is considerable concern about China's control over the world's rare earth metal supply.China produces more than 90% of the world's rare earth metals.It has cut exports of the metals by 75% this year.The U.S. is considering filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization over possible Chinese hoarding of the metals.
Rare earth metals are used in everything from tanks to iPhones and hybrid cars.The U.S. has only one rare earth metal mine.It could take 15 years for the U.S. to restart its rare earth metal supply chain.There is a bill before Congress to do just that.

China's Strategy Turns Slightly

China has begun buying quantities of Japanese government bonds recently.According to Yifan Hu,Chief Global Economist at Citic Securities,China's overall strategy is:
1.Buy more commodities.
2.Make direct investments in natural resources.
3.Buy Treasuries and European bonds,as well as some Japanese bonds-but that's not a trend.The U.S. dollar will still be relatively strong,at least in the medium term.U.S. growth will still be better than Japan's,with their aging population and other problems,so Treasuries will still be bought.As well,China cannot afford to harm the U.S. economy,which would happen should she suddenly stop buying Treasuries.
Ms.Hu doesn't expect high Chinese export numbers,with the U.S. and European economies being slow.The tightening talk by Beijing has been toned down.The Chinese currency,the Yuan,has started to appreciate again.This is bound to instigate more calls by U.S. politicians for retaliatory action to be taken against China,whose trade advantage is linked to the rising Yuan.

Haunted By The Nikkei

The specter of Japan's most popular stock average,the Nikkei,hovers over the minds of U.S. officials and investors alike.The Nikkei reached its peak of around 40,000 in 1988.For 22 years,it has failed to even get close to that level again.It's only at about 9500 now.Is that to be the fate of Western markets as well following the financial crisis?
James Bullard,President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,says deflation is not the main economic scenario for the U.S.All the same,core inflation has drifted below 1%.We're on the low side.The Japanese situation has been very difficult for them to get out of.Mr.Bullard calls for a plan to have significant easing.If the economy continues to recover,we can all forget about it,but a big shock to the economy could cause the Japanese situation here.Japan is a big,industrialized country;they're like us.The Fed's interest rate targeting can create this outcome.Low inflation plus low rates can cause deflation.
The academic community takes this risk seriously.Mr.Bullard is still an inflation hawk,but that's not where we are now.If we promise to stay at 0% rates for 10 years,it's gonna be Japan all over again.At some point,the strategy has to shift.In that situation,deflation,ordinary stabilization methods are shut down.You're in this environment where inflation can be too low,and you have to deal with that.Quantitative easing can work.It's important to do contingency planning for all outcomes,the Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard believes.

Stress Tests Considered Success

The stress testing of Euro-zone banks is generally considered to have been a success,restoring confidence to world markets.Despite skepticism from some economists as to the toughness of the tests,the Committee of European Banking Supervisors insists the tests were more severe than the U.S. stress tests of last year.The Euro-zone tests postulated a once in twenty years scenario,while the U.S. tests postulated a once in seven years scenario.The Euro-zone tests were based on a double dip recession,with a 20% stock plunge and four notch downgrade of credit ratings.
Among the 91 banks tested were HSBC,Lloyd's,Deutsche Bank,Commerzbank,Unicredit,Santander and National Bank of Greece.All but seven of the 91 banks passed,most of the failures being Spanish savings banks,as well as Germany's Hypo Real Estate Bank and Greece's ATE Bank.The national authorities are in close contact with these banks to assess the results and implications,in particular in terms of the need for recapitalization,the CEBS said.
On Tuesday,Deutsche Bank reported good earnings and made positive remarks on its outlook.German unemployment came in at 7.7%,while U.S. unemployment is at 9.7%.

Defining Financial Reality

Asia in general is the strong point of the global economy,says Michael Yoshikami,Chief Investment Strategist at YCMNET Advisors.He's thinking investors are getting over their initial panic over Greece.Not everything is going wrong,though Europe is essentially seen as an economy that's going to be struggling for years and years.He doesn't think the U.S. and China are gonna destroy each other.They're gonna work together to succeed.
If you're in a trading range,you watch for opportunities now that every thing's been trashed.There's way too much concentration on BP;Exxon Mobil and Chevron have some promise as investments.You have to get away from seeing the market as reality.The market is reaction plus sentiment.The economic fundamentals are reality,Mr.Yoshikami believes.
BP plc(BP),Exxon Mobil(XOM),Chevron(CVX)

IMF Helps Stabilize Greece

John Lipsky,First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund,says the 110 billion Euro aid package to Greece will restore financial stability and set the stage for renewed growth in the Greek economy.The European Union authorities have agreed to create a stabilization mechanism in conjunction with an IMF program where help is asked for and needed.
There's no question that the Greek adjustment program is a difficult one,Mr.Lipsky admitted,but it was designed by the Greek government and approved by Parliament,and the majority of Greeks support it.A combination of high debt,high deficits and a lack of competitiveness had reached a big proportion in Greece.
The IMF constitutes a revolving fund from its 186 member countries.The U.S. pays about 17% of the fund.It is replenished whenever it is used.There are no program negotiations with Spain or Portugal at this time,John Lipsky stated.
The IMF is an autonomous UN agency which promotes international monetary cooperation,currency stabilization and international trade.