Ecumenical Patriarch to Visit Madrid,Spain

His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew is to make an official visit to the Holy Metropolis of Spain and Portugal from 14-18 October 2023.The purpose of the visit is primarily to celebrate two anniversaries.First is the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Holy Metropolis of Spain and Portugal.Secondly is the 50th anniversary of the Metropolitan Cathedral of St.Andrew the First-Called and St.Dimitrios.Patriarch Bartholomew will preside at a Patriarchal Horostasis (Divine Liturgy) at the Metropolitan Cathedral on Sunday 15 October.The Holy Metropolis is currently led by His Eminence Metropolitan Vessarion of Spain and Portugal,who extended the invitation to Patriarch Bartholomew.* Customarily,an official Patriarchal visit also includes an environmental activity and a private meeting with local and national political figures.Patriarch Bartholomew travels by private business jet.

Inside NATO's Massive Exercise Trident Juncture 2015

Over 36,000 NATO and Partner nation troops,and,for the first time ever in a NATO exercise,international and nongovernmental organisations,are participating in Exercise Trident Juncture 2015,the biggest NATO exercise since 2002.The innovative exercise includes the EU and African Union as participants,along with the ICRC and other organisations.It is NATO beginning to shift from over a decade of intense counterinsurgency in Afghanistan to the current security environment-although its work in Afghanistan continues as dictated by conditions on the ground.*
TRJE 2015 will use new and evolving concepts;advanced technology;cutting edge military capabilities and the world's most modern land,sea and air forces,including special operations,in the most complex and realistic scenarios.The main goal is to train,evaluate and certify the NATO Response Force,at the core of which is the new Very High Readiness Joint Task Force,VJTF.The fictitious but realistic setting is a country beyond NATO's borders that is a victim of international tensions,natural hazards and a neighbour's aggression.The events will range from the effects of subversion and terrorism to grand military manoeuvers on a large scale;from the conditions of chemical warfare to the battlegrounds of cyber and information;from the intricacies of tribal rivalries to the challenges of unpredictable and autocratic political leaders.*
TRJE 2015 will primarily be held in Spain,Portugal and Italy-a huge area to provide safety for the complex manoeuvers.The exercise is characterised by:
1.the size of the training area,which is huge to Europeans;
2.speed-speed on the land,sea or in the air;
3.multiple events happening simultaneously in the huge training area.
In the scenarios,airports are heavily fought for,both defending or taking them;the use of artillery,IEDs and propaganda are represented;four full brigades of marines will be coming in and out of several amphibious operations together,with air cover assisting;a fight for air superiority and a fight for freedom of navigation are enacted;the use of the Global Hawk UAV is tested.The exercise is divided into phases CPX,the Command Post Exercise for strategic and operational level staff training,evaluation and certification with the EU and AU;and LIVEX for Tactical level troops engagements throughout Italy,Portugal and Spain;the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea;plus Canada,Norway,Germany,Belgium and the Netherlands.At the conclusion of TRJE 2015,the headquarters staff from Joint Forces Command Brunssum will be officially certified to head the NATO Response Force,if activated,throughout 2016.Its core element,the VJTF,is required to respond with 5,000 troops in 48 hours to crises in the East and South of the Alliance.*
Those participating in TRJE 2015 are 27 of the 28 NATO Allies,plus Partners Australia;FYROM;Sweden;Finland;Austria;Bosnia-Hercegovina;and Ukraine.It runs from 28 September to 3 November.

Pinterest Looking To Grow User Base and Revenue

Photo curating and sharing platform Pinterest is hoping to expand its user base in Europe.The social media company is opening offices in the Netherlands,Spain,Italy and Sweden this year.
In another big move,the privately held firm is taking a big step in monetisation of the platform with the "buyable pins" concept.Now users will be able to buy depicted products directly from the site by clicking on small blue "Buy It" tabs on the pins,as the platform's photos are called.
We're very excited about products being brought directly into the Pinterest ecosystem,said Satish Kanwar of Shopify.Pinterest is our second largest referrer,but the first in value of purchases made.*
Pinterest users often use the site to shop for products or get ideas for projects,but to this point have had to go offsite to actually make a purchase.The company is five years old and valued at 11 billion dollars.Pinterest will not get a cut of each buyable pin transaction,but will offer vendors the option of paying for a promoted pin which is shown to users with a particular profile.Similarly,Google is adding a buy button to search results.
More than two million products will initially be offered on buyable pins by the likes of retailers such as Macy's,Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus.You can pay with ApplePay or credit card.Buyable pins will launch on the Pinterest iOS app for US users this month,then be available on Android and desktop later this year.
Pinterest has strong appeal to those looking for new furniture and decorating ideas,fashion,wedding plans and baby products,as well as those interested in curating photos that reflect their interest in any number of topics,from art history to sports.
Successfully monetising this growing and distinctive platform will point it in the direction of becoming a public company.

Prologis Industrial REIT Sees Good Signs

Prologis is the world's largest industrial real estate investment trust.CEO Hamid Moghadam cites FedEx,UPS,Amazon and Wal-Mart as being among the warehouse firm's largest customers.We think economic growth and the lack of construction is gonna give us pricing power,Mr.Moghadam said.Ecommerce is probably the biggest renter and housing the least,and those in the middle are also growing.
Housing affects our smaller buildings.Under 100,000 square feet,we have about 10% vacancy.That's finally happening this year.
Overseas,we're seeing really good demand on domestic consumption.Japan is doing well because it's changing from an export to a domestic import economy.Spain,Italy and the UK are going strong.France is the weakest.President Hollande's policies have frightened people,and there's a lot of flight capital.
If occupancies drop to the 90s or below as in 2009,I get worried.We're a conservative bunch and we'd like to see it higher,Mr.Moghadam admitted.
UBS is to increase its Asia corporate advisory head count by 10% on the region's growth forecast.
Germany's industrial output was up in February on economic recovery.
Alcoa's earnings topped estimates on growing demand for aircraft.
Prologis(PLD),UBS AG(UBS),Alcoa Inc(AA)

Cosmetics and the Luxury Retail Market

Spain,Italy and Greece are not in any healthy condition,according to William Lauder,Executive Chairman of cosmetics titan the Estee Lauder Companies.Central Europe is OK,not bad.Eastern Europe is better still.Germany,France and the Benelux are pretty solid.
Asia's our fastest growing market;China is the fastest in Asia.Chinese consumers are shopping both at home and abroad.There's still an awful lot of growth going on there.We're building for the long term.
The female consumer's behaviour is influenced by her employment;her spouse's employment;and the housing market.
Most of our competitors are European or Asian-based,such as LVMH and L'Oreal.According to the comparables,we are the world's leading prestige market for beauty.A customer will spend 35-50 dollars for our products,versus 500 for a handbag or 50,000 for a necklace.
In California,there is strong Australian buying within a 20 mile radius of LAX airport.It is the major gateway of the Australians to the US;20-30% of area retailers' business is from Australians,given the strong Australian dollar.
Estee Lauder(EL)

Global Investing Survey 2013

The banks' balance sheets in terms of deleveraging are pretty convincing,according to George Greg,head of international investing at William Blair and Company.The banks move to adjust their strategy where they can make themselves strong-in the human resources area.The capital and cost questions are being addressed.
In the long run,we're gonna have to ask what is the normalised ROE here in relation to industrials.
As for Japan,overwhelmingly on the mind of investors is what the Bank of Japan will do next,the effectiveness of monetary policy going forward.We favour the major financials;global industrials;and consumer stocks with a lot of vibrancy in the small cap end.
In Europe,we like industrial capital goods;global luxury and consumer brands;and cars.Spain has already made great strides in productivity and unit labour costs,and will be more competitive going forward.
There are still plenty of good opportunities in the US,though it is more expensive than Europe.
Portugal's GDP contracted for the ninth straight quarter on declining exports,and the Euro Area GDP fell the most since 2009 in Q4 2012.
British Prime Minister David Cameron arrived in India with the largest business delegation ever,representing 100 companies,including BAE Systems;HSBC;and Rolls Royce.He called India the partner of choice.
William Blair International Growth N Fund(WBIGX),William Blair International Equity Class I Fund(WIEIX)

Ladies European Tour Concludes in Dubai With a Chinese Win

The Ladies European Tour has ended its season with the Omega Dubai Ladies Masters at Emirates Golf Club in Dubai,UAE.American Lexi Thompson yielded her title to China's Shanshan Feng on Sunday and her final round 21 under par 69.Dewi Claire Schreeful of the Netherlands was second with a 16 under par 69;third place on the leader board was shared by Caroline Masson of Germany and Becky Brewerton of Wales.
Carlota Ciganda of Spain won the Handa Order of Merit for the season with her earnings total of 251,289.95 euros.She was also named Rookie of the Year.
The tournament was played out against the looming backdrop of the ultramodern skyline of the desert city.
Following her win,Swiss watchmaking titan Omega named Feng a brand ambassador,adding her to a list including Greg Norman,Sergio Garcia and Michelle Wie.Fiancial terms were not disclosed.
In a statement,Omega said it is proud that this outstanding competitor,whose smile lights up every course she plays on,has joined its family of golfing brand ambassadors.The brand looks forward to celebrating with Shanshan Feng each time she adds to her already impressive list of victories and achievements on the golf course.
Besides Omega,tournament sponsors included Gulf News,Drydocks World,Maritime World,Mercedes Benz,Emirates NBD and CNN.

Asset Manager:Observations and Opportunities

It will reach a point where Spain needs the bailout package,said Mark Konyn,PhD,CEO of Cathay Conning Asset Management.Italy is not at all out of the woods yet.Overall,the whole process has been delay and delay and delay,to drag things out as long as possible.
With regard to the US fiscal cliff,everyone has some thing to lose in this.I think they will mediate a compromise that allows them to roll the whole thing over for twelve months hence.The cost of going over the cliff would be a massive setback globally,with a 4% GDP loss.
In Europe,Greece is not the main issue;Spain is.Investors are taking more risk in their bond portfolio.There are also opportunities within equities for taking on risk.They will continue into next year.
The catalyst for Chinese stocks is not there.In March,there will be some infrastructure spending in China.There will be some opportunities around that,Dr.Konyn pointed out.
Cathay Conning Asset Management is a provider of innovative asset management solutions to institutions and insurers in the Asia Pacific region,offering a differentiated suite of investment products and services.
Mark Konyn has a doctorate in Risk Analysis from London Metropolitan University and was a fellow at University College London.He is currently a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.

Euro Debt Crisis Means Cheap Assets

Spain is gonna be one of the two or three biggest markets for distressed assets,said Russell Platt of Forum Partners Investment Management.It could take 7-10 years in the courts to take control of the assets.There are about 140 billion euros of distressed assets available in Spain.
Germany is the biggest market for distressed assets-about 200 billion euros' worth.It's a chance to buy real estate cheaper.We see commercial properties at 50-60 cents on the dollar in the UK.
In the US,we're buying REITs mostly and mortgage-backed securities.We also like homebuilders.
PIMCO is one of the biggest buyers of distressed European assets.DIC Asset AG is a fund that buys distressed office properties in Germany.
Forum Partners is a global real estate investment management firm.It has 6 billion dollars of assets under management for institutions and family offices.With offices from London to Beijing and Santa Fe,it has invested in 17 countries in Europe and Asia.
DIC Asset AG(DAZ:Xetra),iShares Barclays CMBS Bond Fund(CMBS)

Newsletter Founder:Slowly Working It Out-the global economic slowdown

Spain will take a bailout by year end,predicts Paul Krake,founder of the "View from the Peak" newsletter.The world is so dominated by QE and expansion of the balance sheet,that's all that matters.
This is about kicking the can down the road.It's about working through the process.This could take 5+ years.
I've been advising clients a Spanish bailout and a Greek bailout will occur around the same time.Portugal will need more money,but it's incremental compared to Greece.
Asia will continue to be affected by falling exports.Global growth ex-US will be very sluggish next year,Mr.Krake advised.
QE,or quantitative easing,is the buying of assets by central banks to support markets and the economy.
"View from the Peak" is a weekly macro piece on the economic,valuation and policy factors that drive asset classes and regions.They work with asset management firms, sovereign governments and high net worth families.
Paul Krake has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Monash University in South Africa.

Chief Market Strategist:What To Look At Now

There really is a sense that something very profound is happening in Spain,said Stephen Wood,PhD,Chief Market Strategist at Russell Investments.There's a sense they're on the edge of something big.It's the fourth largest economy in Europe.We're facing one of the first global stimulus packages in four years.
The UK is just chugging along as it always has.I would have to say the US right now has much stronger fundamentals.They may be better than China right now.Corporations have strong balance sheets.
You need globally diversified,multi-asset portfolios.The Federal Reserve is forcing people up the risk spectrum.I would be looking at emerging markets and corporate debt,Dr.Wood advised.
Stephen Wood conducts research on the economy,capital markets,portfolio strategies and investor behaviour.He interfaces with Russell's institutional clients and retail partners to communicate the firm's perspectives on the global market,investment process and portfolio management.He is also a prominent media spokesman for the company's views.

Asian Voices 2-plus a Middle East Moment

The focus,perhaps,should be more on the job market in China,said Donna Kwok,Greater China Economist at HSBC Global Research.Domestic consumption and social stability could be hurt by it.
We think the downturn in China is driven by one thing:external demand,given the downturn in Europe and sluggish growth in the US.We continue to see incremental steps to liberalisation in the next few years.Redistribution of workers is more important to domestic demand in China than absolute numbers of workers.
Mark Konyn,CEO of Cathay Canning Asset Management,notes that in Europe,we're starting to see contraction across the continent,and that's worrying.That could get worse.Spain hasn't been able to work its way through the regional problems.
I think there'll be more asset purchasing.Markets are positioning for more stimulus.We're expecting to see more growth in the second half of the year.I would argue it's more cyclical than waiting for stimulus in China.
In the Middle East,shock waves continue to ripple through the region from the deadly rocket attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi,Libya.Senator John McCain,R-Arizona,said I see it as a newly-elected government that is having the growing pains that any government would have.There are weapons everywhere in Libya, and there are jihadists that have come into the country and continue to come on.These are very dangerous people trying to hijack the revolution.
The attack was done by people who were obviously Muslim extremists.We all should be worried about al-Qaida.The best way to help Libya is to help them train their army and with their intelligence capability.I'm confident we can do that.I cannot be more proud of Ambassador Chris Stevens,the senator had emotionally said of his friend,US Ambassador J.Christopher Stevens,who with three colleagues was killed Tuesday in the organised Benghazi assault by perhaps two dozen militants on the eleventh anniversary of 9-11.

Chief Market Strategists:Grappling With Greece-and who may ultimately win

Even if some problems are solved in Europe,we still have more to go,according to Nick Colas,Chief Market Strategist at ConvergEx Group.Germany is a special case,a high growth export economy,sending such things as machine tools to China.Spain is like Florida:housing driven,with homes for retirees.
Europe's got to firewall a bunch of the issues in Italy,Spain and Portugal.What they're really trying to do is buy time.We in the U.S. are doing everything to keep rates low on the monetary side;Europe has embraced austerity.We are trying to keep growth going.We shall see who wins.
Leadership is lacking,adds Andrew Economos,Head of Sovereign&Institutional Strategy,Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management.Greek politicians are setting themselves up for the April election.A deal is done.It's really a question of getting the three political parties in line.
We'll have this rolling crisis as we sweep through the periphery.Germany will guarantee the debt and China will take a stake.I think it means ample liquidity.Ultimately,it flows into Asian markets,Mr.Economos believes.
ConvergEx Group is a provider of mission-critical software and services to asset managers and financial intermediaries globally.Serving more than 4,000 institutional customers in 22 cities worldwide,their products and services span the investment life cycle.
JP Morgan Chase(JPM)

Newsletter Editor Favors Uranium

Mark Skousen,PhD,editor of the Forecasts and Strategies newsletter,has deep concerns about the economy.He believes the U.S. is obviously doing something wrong.We need to unburden business.These are burdens keeping the Great Recession with us.Higher interest rates would get us out of this.
Dr.Skousen,a noted economist and author of the textbook Economic Logic,as well as The Making of Modern Economics,continues his longstanding investment advisory work.He likes the Canadian uranium miner Cameco.This is a great recovery story.Uranium prices fell sharply,but are now stabilising and starting to go back up.China and India plan to expand their nuclear energy assets,and Cameco stands to gain from this,in Dr.Skousen's opinion.
He also favors Spain's Telefonica.Over 70% of this company's business is outside of Spain and Europe,and it pays a 9% dividend.
As for another of his picks,Rare Earth Elements,Mark Skousen says we're gonna take our profits.It's too volatile for a long term holding beyond six months.He will personally keep holding the stock as a speculator,however.
Mark Skousen,who has a doctorate in economics from George Washington University, served in the Central Intelligence Agency from 1972-75 and is also a scholar in Benjamin Franklin studies.
Cameco(CCJ)or TSX:CCO,Rare Earth Elements(REE),Telefonica(TEF)

Lagarde Confident In Euro

Christine Lagarde,the French finance minister,thinks political leaders will have to take a helicopter view of things for the good of our economies.The Greek population and government are really demonstrating a commitment to deliver.They are doing it.The work is being done.The Greeks are taking it much more seriously than the markets feared.
Solving the debt crisis is a joint effort of the International Monetary Fund,the Euro-zone and the European Central Bank.The Euro can absolutely survive.This whole thing was built on the back of wars.In the 1960s,Europe decided they had to build something better,Ms.Lagarde said in her excellent English.
At least a minority of citizens are not going along with the new fiscal regime. Protests have erupted this week in Spain and Greece,with rioting in Athens and a rail strike in Madrid.

IMF Helps Stabilize Greece

John Lipsky,First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund,says the 110 billion Euro aid package to Greece will restore financial stability and set the stage for renewed growth in the Greek economy.The European Union authorities have agreed to create a stabilization mechanism in conjunction with an IMF program where help is asked for and needed.
There's no question that the Greek adjustment program is a difficult one,Mr.Lipsky admitted,but it was designed by the Greek government and approved by Parliament,and the majority of Greeks support it.A combination of high debt,high deficits and a lack of competitiveness had reached a big proportion in Greece.
The IMF constitutes a revolving fund from its 186 member countries.The U.S. pays about 17% of the fund.It is replenished whenever it is used.There are no program negotiations with Spain or Portugal at this time,John Lipsky stated.
The IMF is an autonomous UN agency which promotes international monetary cooperation,currency stabilization and international trade.

A Complex Recovery

Europe accounts for 29% of U.S. exports and 8% of U.S. revenues.That is why the Eurozone debt crisis is such a concern across the Atlantic.The domino effect is much on the minds of financial leaders in America.
Spain contributes 12% to the Eurozone economy,while Greece yields 3%.The fiscal problems in Spain are not as bad as in Greece,says Nariman Behravesh,Chief Economist at IHS Global Insight.Spain is in the second year of a recession,with 20% unemployment.The big question is,what are they reasonably gonna do?None of the countries has come up with a credible debt reduction program.A Greek default has to some extent been priced in the market,but a Spanish default could split up the Eurozone.That has not been priced in.We're talking about a multi-speed recovery,a "LUV" recovery,with Europe being the L;the U.S. being the U;and Asia being the V,in Mr.Behravesh's opinion.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced a second round of budget cuts yesterday.The first round prompted rioting.Without the promise of cuts,Greece would not receive aid from its neighbors or the International Monetary Fund.

Big Debt,High Cost

Greece is paying a high price for its national debt.Interest on one bond rose from 6.2 to 6.6%in three or four days.If unable to pay the interest,Greece would go into default.Nonetheless,Prime Minister George Papandreou denies Greece will have to be bailed out by the European Union.
In a TV address,Mr.Papandreou warned of massive budget cuts and higher taxes.There will be cuts in wages and spending in the public sector.Greece is under heavy EU pressure to defend the euro by reducing its deficit.It needs over 50 billion euros just to finance its deficit.One citizen remarked that people are angry and anxious about what will happen tomorrow.So are the governments of Spain,Portugal and Ireland,which face similar,if lesser,budgetary dilemmas.

Eurozone Budgets Under Stress

Greece has the biggest debt of the Eurozone countries-the countries that use the Euro for their currency.Prime Minister George Papandreou announced sweeping structural reforms earlier this week,saying that Greece is sinking under its debts.The country is in its worst financial dislocation since it returned to democracy 35 years ago.
Mr.Papandreou called for national unity in the face of the crisis.Greece's soaring defense budget will be targeted for reduction,but there is a real prospect of strikes.Greek leftists and trade unions have indicated that they won't tolerate any cuts.
Ireland and Spain also face a high debt load.While Greece's budget deficit for 2009 is forecast to be 12.7% of Gross Domestic Product,Ireland's is expected to be 12.5%,and Spain's 11.2% of GDP respectively.European Union budget rules set a limit of 3% of GDP.The deficits came about when the countries propped up their economies with borrowing when the financial crisis reached Europe.