Syria:Voices and Visions

US and French forces seem almost certain to attack Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons within a short period of time.The UK is waffling after expressing initial support,delaying a decision until the UN inspectors have issued a report on chemical weapons use in Syria and a Parliamentary debate next week.NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed support for military action.The US is prepared to go it alone if necessary.*There would be cruise missiles launched from four or five US destroyers in the region,and perhaps from submarines;and possibly long range bombers would be utilised as well,along with fighter aircraft to suppress anti-aircraft systems and strike other targets with precision munitions.Air bases in Turkey and Italy could be used.The target sets would likely be Syrian command and control centres,as well as their naval and air forces in order to hinder a Syrian response.The operation would perhaps take a day or two.*CNBC's Jim Cramer said I'm at a loss.How do I game Syria?Collectively,the market doesn't know what it's doing.We're all searching for analogies;we don't really have analogs.We told Assad what the schedule is.I don't think anyone really knows much.*Art Cashin,Director of NYSE Floor Operations for UBS,said you're gonna see this as pretty broad-based;watch both gold and oil.We're playing a game of headline roulette.The difficulty is,once events begin to take place,they can accelerate.If they take it to the UN,there could be a sigh of relief rally.*General Anthony Zinni,US Marine Corps retired,former CENTCOM commander,said there has to be a long term strategy.Where do we go in the long term if he continues these unacceptable acts? This is not simply a matter of regime removal.We thought that in Iraq.This is a mess.There is a religious war underneath.If we attack now,we have to be prepared to follow up.A military commander,if he's prudent,plans against all possibilities.*This is a regional conflict.We have a lot of work to build international support.It's not there now,and that concerns me greatly,General Zinni confided.*President Barack Obama said the Assad regime will have received a pretty strong signal it better not do it again.You are not only breaking international norms and standards of decency,you are also having an affect on US national interests,and it needs to stop.

Prologis Industrial REIT Sees Good Signs

Prologis is the world's largest industrial real estate investment trust.CEO Hamid Moghadam cites FedEx,UPS,Amazon and Wal-Mart as being among the warehouse firm's largest customers.We think economic growth and the lack of construction is gonna give us pricing power,Mr.Moghadam said.Ecommerce is probably the biggest renter and housing the least,and those in the middle are also growing.
Housing affects our smaller buildings.Under 100,000 square feet,we have about 10% vacancy.That's finally happening this year.
Overseas,we're seeing really good demand on domestic consumption.Japan is doing well because it's changing from an export to a domestic import economy.Spain,Italy and the UK are going strong.France is the weakest.President Hollande's policies have frightened people,and there's a lot of flight capital.
If occupancies drop to the 90s or below as in 2009,I get worried.We're a conservative bunch and we'd like to see it higher,Mr.Moghadam admitted.
UBS is to increase its Asia corporate advisory head count by 10% on the region's growth forecast.
Germany's industrial output was up in February on economic recovery.
Alcoa's earnings topped estimates on growing demand for aircraft.
Prologis(PLD),UBS AG(UBS),Alcoa Inc(AA)

Voices and Trends in Wealth Management

We favour US equities to the emerging markets,said Kelvin Tay,Regional CIO for the Southern Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management.We like high yield corporate debt.We don't see a huge amount of risk.We're still positive on it at this stage,with an overweight on it.
Cyprus was a reminder that structural issues in Europe are far from over.We need to see that US growth is sustainable to the 3% GDP target that we have.We also need to see that China growth is achievable.
With strong US figures,the emerging markets will struggle for attention.Export numbers in Asia are sharply lower on sequestration in the US.
South Korean exports were worse than expected on the strong US dollar.Goldman Sachs says investors are buying Treasuries at fastest clip since 2009.
Global stocks have posted the best return of any investments for another quarter,but Stephen Wood,PhD of Russell Investments thinks it is unlikely that Q2 results will repeat the first quarter.There's a tug of war.This has been a very broad-based rally,but it also has a defensive character,too.Dr.Wood recommends a globally diversified,multi-asset portfolio constructed in a case-by-case,security-by-security way.
Carter Worth,Chief Market Technician at Oppenheimer,believes several stocks are fully priced,such as Johnson and Johnson and The Traveler's Companies.When does a stock become dangerous?We have a four-year bull market that has taken us to all-time highs.Markets don't normally go up 40-80%.Only four times has that happened.Go to cash,Mr.Worth advised.
Johnson and Johnson(JNJ),The Traveler's Companies,Inc(TRV)

Advantage View:Market Thoughts From UBS

We have a dichotomy in the market:1.We need to see better macros,and 2.We need to see something better out of Euro policy makers.Our bias is to believe that the longer this continues,the weaker the numbers will be;our bias is to the downside.
We need more clarity out of policymakers,both U.S. and European-but especially European.I'll believe it when I see it.We haven't seen any evidence they are taking concrete measures.Given the 17 parliaments,it's by definition a slow process.
We favor U.S. equities such as consumer staples and defensive cyclicals such as tech.There's a lot of risk with industrial cyclicals and energy.Materials and industrials are lagging.
Over the next year or two,China will see 7-8% growth.It's not falling off a cliff,but slowing.Near term,event risks out of Europe and decelerating GDPs get us quite concerned about global equity markets.Medium term,we are constructive on equities.
Jeremy Zirin is Chief Equity Strategist at UBS Financial Services.UBS offers wealth management,investment banking,asset management and business banking services to clients worldwide,as well as retail banking in Switzerland.

Investing in Emerging Markets

According to Nicholas Smithie,emerging markets strategist at UBS,the emerging markets have had a splendid decade.We know there is an overhang about sovereign debt.They are trading lower than 75% off other periods,pricing at distressed valuations.We think investors go for them for their high rate of domestic growth.
In the emerging markets,domestic consumption and infrastructure are really starting to take off in Thailand,Indonesia and the Philippines.Investor holding periods have become very short:they want all their returns all at once.Those in it for the long haul will benefit.
We think that Chinese equities have fallen to very low valuations,pricing in a hard landing.In the second half of the year,Chinese growth will come through.We'd be buying,Mr.Smithie advised.
China has just raised interest rates for the third time this year,a sign that growth is still so strong,even with the tightening measures already taken,the government is afraid of the economy overheating into more inflation.
UBS offers wealth management,asset management and investment banking globally,as well as retail banking in Switzerland.Founded in 1854,it is based in Zurich and Basel,Switzerland.UBS has offices in more than 50 countries.
UBS AG(UBS)