Economic Advisor:Where We Are and What You Can Do

The key issue is that the road we are on right now is going to end,predicted Mohamed El-Erian,chief economic advisor at Allianz.Central banks will no longer be able to borrow against the future;we're getting less growth out of the system;the political regimes are getting more extreme.That has massive implications on how you're going to position yourself at this T-junction.The Fed doesn't want to be forced by the market into a change of policy stance.The market welcomed the rate hike;now its view is shifting.
We never achieved liftoff.We never got to what this economy is capable of,and that's a tragedy.*
This year,it's hard to get a recession.I think the probability of a recession goes up to about 30% for 2017,and then we get to the T-junction where major decisions have to be made.We have financial prices separated from the fundamentals.We can't let the currency markets carry all the burden.*
I think this year will be a great year for those who can pick the right stocks,and there's going to be lots of opportunity.I still think you need cash;you need 25-30% cash right now,advised Dr.El-Erian,who holds degrees from both Oxford and Cambridge Universities.His new book is "The Only Game in Town:Central Banks,Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse."

Will the Fed Raise Rates This Month?

I think the volatility is going to sideline the Fed in September,said Mohamed El-Erian,Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz.The second and the third facts have turned violently against the Fed.If they make a mistake,it could spill over into the economy.There isn't much the Fed can do.The market doesn't have the circuit-breakers that it needs.That is a major paradigm change for the marketplace.The market has to find its own equilibrium and level,and that's going to take some time.*
China helped create a market bubble in their stock market,and now they're finding it very hard to control.I think they will be able to soft-land the economy at around 6%,but we are going to observe the financial instability.
I pay a lot of attention to the currency markets.It started flashing red early on and started contaminating other markets.Central banks are having tremendous difficulty because the currency markets are coming unhooked regardless of what the fundamentals are,and the fundamentals are stronger relative to the rest of the world,noted Mr.El-Erian,who is a native of Cairo,Egypt.

Asking Much of China

Pete Fisher,a Vice-President at BlackRock,the world's largest money manager,thinks we're getting to the point where China has to tighten their policy.He fears we'll have more friction,but he's hoping we won't.He's worried about too much hype.We can over-hype how much we can get out of Chinese exchange rate hikes when they do occur.It would cool down their economy.We don't want China to have inflation or a bubble.
What a revaluation of the yuan may not do is affect our trade relations,Mr.Fisher points out.It's terrific for the world economy for China to have cerated all this wealth over the past 20 years.We've got to be careful not to expect too much from what they've accomplished.
BlackRock isn't afraid of the long end in bonds.Mr.Fisher believes the economy is gonna do O.K.,but not brilliantly.BlackRock thinks if the economy is gonna do O.K.,that's gonna mean a sideways movement in interest rates,attractive to investors at the long end.Some analysts have been warning investors that the long bond will collapse under inflationary pressure.

A Morgan Stanley Analysis

Henry McVey,Chief Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley,thinks Germany's in pretty good shape.The UK may be the next problem.There's tension between high leverage and sustaining growth in Europe.What's really a risk-free asset?The U.S. is gonna be somewhat of a safe haven.Treasuries haven't sold off,and the dollar has rallied.
Mr.McVey still thinks most of the emerging market currencies are a good bet.They've been owning some high yield growth stocks outside the U.S. such as Nestle.A lot of the most levered companies are pretty expensive right now.
I don't think the sovereign debt issue is going away,Mr.McVey said.It's a multi-year issue.It's tough medicine to bring down your leverage.It's the first time in the capital markets that Asian inflation exceeds that of the developed nations.There's more stress to come for the pound and the euro,Mr.McVey predicted.