Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Recovery Today:A Trust Company Assessment
The unemployment rate went down slightly in April,but it doesn't include part-timers and the frustrated who have dropped out of the jobs search,points out Komal Sri-Kumar,Chief Global Strategist at TCW.The male participation rate was the lowest since 1948.The pain should be measured by the participation rate.Regardless of whether the job market is normally a lagging indicator,in this recovery it has become a leading indicator.The stock market cannot recover without jobs. The question is,do you want to right the market for a short period of time,or do you want to support it for 3-5 years with jobs?That is at the top of my list.In the short term,I look for U.S. Treasury yields to go down if there is more trouble in Europe or the U.S.In the first half of 2013,you will see more meaningful measures on jobs after the election,Mr.Sri-Kumar projected. TCW,the Trust Company of the West,was founded in Los Angeles in 1971.It serves institutional and high net worth individuals with a broad array of U.S. equity,U.S. fixed income,alternative and international strategies in accordance with its core values of fundamental research,remaining true to its investment styles and superior customer service.