Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Managing Director:Asia's New Rising Star

We expect the third and fourth quarter to look a lot better in China,said Nigel Chalk,PhD,Managing Director and Head of Emerging Asia Research at Barclays.In the end,they're gonna do more investment,more credit.Data show things are not as bad as people think.
India has much less room for maneuver.It's unclear how they're gonna turn around growth.We like the Philippines.They have a good fiscal and monetary policy side.On a lot of fronts,they seem to be the rising star.
Dr.Chalk was a longtime IMF official,most recently serving as Mission Chief to China.He received his Economics doctorate from UCLA and a MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Barclays was named "Best Global Investment Bank" for 2011 by Euromoney magazine.
Hugh Young of Aberdeen Asset Management adds that Singapore has strong banks.Go with the strongest banks.Worry about the balance sheets,not the earnings power.
Barclays PLC(BCS)

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Managing Director:Where You Want To Be

There's a transition in the mix of growth coming out of China,according to Lisa Shalett,Managing Director at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.We think it's going from infrastructure/construction/building to a consumption/services mix.
Our thesis has been to go with the best of breed in Europe.That means Siemens,Daimler Benz,Astra Zeneca.Investor fatigue and the overhang of issues are really in the U.S. market.
Mario Draghi,President of the European Central Bank,can learn a lot from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.The risk in Europe now is a deflationary bust.You want to be in high quality,dividend-growing equities and investment grade corporates.You want to be in companies,not countries.Be in the emerging markets and high yield debt,Ms.Shalett counseled.
Lisa Shalett is Chief Investment Officer of Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and Head of Investment Management and Guidance.With over 17 years' experience in the investment industry,she has a BS in applied mathematics and economics from Brown University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch(BAC),Siemens AG(SI),Daimler AG(DDAIF),Astra Zeneca(AZN)

Pepsi: Now In a Moment (Extended Cut)

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Asset Allocation:A Standard Chartered View

We believe the U.S. economy is stronger than most people believe it to be,said Steve Brice,Chief Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank.We do believe we're in a more constructive risk environment,but it's not gonna be a straight line,in our opinion.
We are overweight global equities.The dividend yield in the U.S.,Japan and Germany is significantly above government bond rates.It makes total sense from a global equities perspective.We are also overweight corporate debt.We are overweight the U.S.,China and Korea.We do see high dividend yields in Malaysia,Mr.Brice added.
The case for buying Europe is based on the sentiment being awful;cheap valuations;shares trading at a 49% discount,versus a 20% premium in the U.S.;and the dividend yield at a 320 point spread to the German bund,according to Katie Koch of Goldman Sachs Wealth Management.The smart thing is to initiate or add to positions;but keep some dry powder.Up to 25% could be in emerging markets;the other 75% will include some exposure to emerging markets,which means you will have over half of your return from emerging markets,Ms.Koch explained.

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Author:How To End the Euro-Zone Crisis

Scholar,journalist and author Sebastian Mallaby,Director of the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations,thinks the most plausible route to end the crisis is the issuance of a euro bond.German leadership is complacent over its own good economy.We are in a real cliff situation.The leaders are not there yet mentally.
You need to really shock the system and get growth back.High bond yields don't seem to be enough of a shock.It's up to the political leadership,not the European Central Bank.If Greece leaves the Euro-zone,there's nothing the ECB can do.
Mr.Mallaby is the author of  "More Money Than God,"a book about hedge funds.It's a crowded,more competitive space.Hedge funds haven't done well during the crisis,he feels.Money market funds have pulled back their European exposure,but there is this confidence factor that is affecting U.S. performance-through the crisis' affect on China being a worry,for instance.
Mr.Mallaby has also written "The World's Banker" and "After Apartheid:the Future of South Africa."He was a longtime journalist with the Economist and is a columnist for The Washington Post.