Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Where The Financial Problem Is-and how to deal with it

The problem is,central banks don't have the right tools,according to Mohamed El-Erian,CEO of PIMCO.The best they can do is provide a bridge,but it has to be a bridge to somewhere.
The politicians aren't doing enough.People are refusing to invest because of the uncertainty.The Fed has been the investor's best friend,supporting valuations and markets.
Our baseline is 1.5% growth-plus or minus 0.5%.If politicians don't get their act together,that would push us into recession.If nothing happens,that will unambiguously throw us into recession.
The sooner,the better.Already businesses are pulling back,investing less.
Be very careful.Focus on sovereigns and companies with strong balance sheets and can give back cash to shareholders,Mr.El-Erian counseled.
Mohamed El-Erian is also co-Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO along with founder Bill Gross.The company now offers a wide range of both active and passive exchange-traded funds,as well as mutual funds.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Euro Debt Crisis Means Cheap Assets

Spain is gonna be one of the two or three biggest markets for distressed assets,said Russell Platt of Forum Partners Investment Management.It could take 7-10 years in the courts to take control of the assets.There are about 140 billion euros of distressed assets available in Spain.
Germany is the biggest market for distressed assets-about 200 billion euros' worth.It's a chance to buy real estate cheaper.We see commercial properties at 50-60 cents on the dollar in the UK.
In the US,we're buying REITs mostly and mortgage-backed securities.We also like homebuilders.
PIMCO is one of the biggest buyers of distressed European assets.DIC Asset AG is a fund that buys distressed office properties in Germany.
Forum Partners is a global real estate investment management firm.It has 6 billion dollars of assets under management for institutions and family offices.With offices from London to Beijing and Santa Fe,it has invested in 17 countries in Europe and Asia.
DIC Asset AG(DAZ:Xetra),iShares Barclays CMBS Bond Fund(CMBS)

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Newsletter Founder:Slowly Working It Out-the global economic slowdown

Spain will take a bailout by year end,predicts Paul Krake,founder of the "View from the Peak" newsletter.The world is so dominated by QE and expansion of the balance sheet,that's all that matters.
This is about kicking the can down the road.It's about working through the process.This could take 5+ years.
I've been advising clients a Spanish bailout and a Greek bailout will occur around the same time.Portugal will need more money,but it's incremental compared to Greece.
Asia will continue to be affected by falling exports.Global growth ex-US will be very sluggish next year,Mr.Krake advised.
QE,or quantitative easing,is the buying of assets by central banks to support markets and the economy.
"View from the Peak" is a weekly macro piece on the economic,valuation and policy factors that drive asset classes and regions.They work with asset management firms, sovereign governments and high net worth families.
Paul Krake has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Monash University in South Africa.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Chief Market Strategist:What To Look At Now

There really is a sense that something very profound is happening in Spain,said Stephen Wood,PhD,Chief Market Strategist at Russell Investments.There's a sense they're on the edge of something big.It's the fourth largest economy in Europe.We're facing one of the first global stimulus packages in four years.
The UK is just chugging along as it always has.I would have to say the US right now has much stronger fundamentals.They may be better than China right now.Corporations have strong balance sheets.
You need globally diversified,multi-asset portfolios.The Federal Reserve is forcing people up the risk spectrum.I would be looking at emerging markets and corporate debt,Dr.Wood advised.
Stephen Wood conducts research on the economy,capital markets,portfolio strategies and investor behaviour.He interfaces with Russell's institutional clients and retail partners to communicate the firm's perspectives on the global market,investment process and portfolio management.He is also a prominent media spokesman for the company's views.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Author and Advisor:A Financial World Tour

I don't see much progress in Europe,but I'm still hoping,said William Rhodes of William Rhodes Global Advisors.The French and the Germans are arguing about bank union.It's always too little,too late.They need a package with a time table they can meet.Only if the markets really move against them will they move.
The growth rates are negative in Spain and Italy.At 2.5-3%,only Germany is not in recession.
It's really an open question whether the Federal Reserve's QE3 will work.All of this bond-buying will have to be unwound.
All of Asia is slowing down.A change in leadership in China is at hand.They've got to convert over more to domestic consumption.There are a lot of doubts floating around.This new leadership is gonna have a lot of challenges ahead of it:a slow US economy;a slow Europe;a China dropping from 11-12% growth to 7%,Mr.Rhodes observed.
William Rhodes is a former Citibank vice president.He is the author of "Banker to the World:Leadership Lessons From the Front Lines of Finance."