Pelosi-Dalai Lama visit will ‘add to the tension’ with China says Adm. Stavridis - YouTube

NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell speaks with Admiral James Stavridis,former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

US Pacific Commander Addresses Manifold Threats

Speaking at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Brisbane on 28 June 2017,Admiral Harry B. Harris,Jr.,Commander,US Pacific Command,characterised the North Korean threat as covering the entire APAC Region,since its missiles point in every direction:
North Korea made this clear when they threatened Australia with a nuclear strike just a couple of months ago.*
At the same time,Adm.Harris pointed out,the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is a growing threat in the region,having named Isnilon Hapilon its emir of Southeast Asia:
These terrorists are using combat tactics that we've seen in the Middle East to kill in the city of Marawi in Mindanao (the Philippines).*
With regard to the ongoing US/Australia/New Zealand Exercise Talisman Sabre 17,the admiral noted:
TS17 is a realistic,high-end and challenging exercise that provides endless opportunities for our nations to innovatively prepare for our shared regional and global security challenges.
Our alliance matters.It matters to our two great nations.It matters to the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region and it matters to the world,because,just as Australia and the US stood together against tyranny and oppression in the twentieth century,the world expects no less in the twenty-first.*
As to China,Adm.Harris told ASPI:
I believe the Chinese are building up combat power and positional advantage to assert de facto sovereignty over disputed maritime features and spaces in the South China Sea,where they are physically altering the physical and political landscape by creating and militarising man-made bases.Fake islands shouldn't be believed by real people.

Private Bank Views-plus Middle East Moment

This is a quiet period,according to Mark Matthews,Head of Research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer;September will be D-Day.The MSCI World Index is up 10% this year;the US is up 14%,overshadowed by all this volatility.The markets will go down if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't express some kind of positive policy action.It's unclear how the Fed makes decisions.
The US is not doing very badly.China's probably the big problem in the world right now.It's slowing down in a way the leaders are comfortable with.
I like the quality US blue chips;quality high yield bonds;Southeast Asian equities such as those from Thailand and the Philippines.
The Julius Baer Group says it is the leading Swiss private banking group,serving sophisticated private clients,family offices and external asset managers from all over the globe.With its headquarters in Zurich,it has more than 40 offices in over 20 countries.The group was founded in 1890.
Middle East Moment:Any Middle East military action will push oil prices significantly higher,says Helma Croft,a geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital.Drought and its higher food prices will hurt Middle East fiscal positions.None of these governments can afford to put off subsidies to their people.
Barclays(BCS)

Author Lays Out China's Best Case Scenario

Commodities exhibit a one decade up,two decades down cycle,notes Ruchir Sharma,Managing Director,Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Team at Morgan Stanley Investment Funds.China is the 100 pound gorilla in the commodity marketplace.
A China slowdown is a principal part of the commodity slowdown thesis.The best case for China is 6-7% growth.It's quite a shock for those who are used to 7-8% growth.It's a very natural slowdown.At a per capita income of 6,000 dollars a year,all developing economies slow down.
China is systematically deploying its wealth,but their debt to GDP is close to 200%.The reason for their slowdown is,the number of people entering the labor force and moving to cities is slowing down.It's demographics.It's like Japan in the 1970s.
We are now in a post-China world.Look to the Philippines,Indonesia and Thailand.For the first time,the Philippines now have a stable political leadership intent on increasing the country's wealth,Mr.Sharma pointed out.
Ruchir Sharma,CFA,is the author of the book "Breakout Nations."A Newsweek columnist and contributor to The Wall Street Journal,he has a BA in Commerce from Shri Ram College of Commerce in Delhi.
Morgan Stanley(MS)

Managing Director:Asia's New Rising Star

We expect the third and fourth quarter to look a lot better in China,said Nigel Chalk,PhD,Managing Director and Head of Emerging Asia Research at Barclays.In the end,they're gonna do more investment,more credit.Data show things are not as bad as people think.
India has much less room for maneuver.It's unclear how they're gonna turn around growth.We like the Philippines.They have a good fiscal and monetary policy side.On a lot of fronts,they seem to be the rising star.
Dr.Chalk was a longtime IMF official,most recently serving as Mission Chief to China.He received his Economics doctorate from UCLA and a MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Barclays was named "Best Global Investment Bank" for 2011 by Euromoney magazine.
Hugh Young of Aberdeen Asset Management adds that Singapore has strong banks.Go with the strongest banks.Worry about the balance sheets,not the earnings power.
Barclays PLC(BCS)

Investing in Emerging Markets

According to Nicholas Smithie,emerging markets strategist at UBS,the emerging markets have had a splendid decade.We know there is an overhang about sovereign debt.They are trading lower than 75% off other periods,pricing at distressed valuations.We think investors go for them for their high rate of domestic growth.
In the emerging markets,domestic consumption and infrastructure are really starting to take off in Thailand,Indonesia and the Philippines.Investor holding periods have become very short:they want all their returns all at once.Those in it for the long haul will benefit.
We think that Chinese equities have fallen to very low valuations,pricing in a hard landing.In the second half of the year,Chinese growth will come through.We'd be buying,Mr.Smithie advised.
China has just raised interest rates for the third time this year,a sign that growth is still so strong,even with the tightening measures already taken,the government is afraid of the economy overheating into more inflation.
UBS offers wealth management,asset management and investment banking globally,as well as retail banking in Switzerland.Founded in 1854,it is based in Zurich and Basel,Switzerland.UBS has offices in more than 50 countries.
UBS AG(UBS)