Global Debt and the Risk to Capitalism

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee issued its interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon,deciding to leave rates unchanged for now,and anticipating only two rate hikes this year,rather than four.They are not actively considering negative interest rates,unlike the European Central Bank,which has just implemented them.*
Markets and central banks globally are beginning to realise that there are negatives to negative interest rates,responded Bill Gross of Janus Capital Management,portfolio manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund and co-founder of PIMCO.It's a more dovish Fed.The Fed is still way above the market.Treasuries are fully priced at these levels.The Fed is connected to the stock market,but I don't think they're responsive to rates being at zero.It's a negative for the finance industry,for pensioners and for savers.They can't earn as much as they should.*
I think,to a certain extent,capitalism is at risk.It doesn't break down,but at the margin,it's hindered and it's hampered.The long term effect basically hampers investment by institutions like insurance companies.*
I think the Fed has an historical sense that Fed Funds should be at 3 or 4%.The real problem is,the tremendous amount of debt in the global markets.When debt gets up to a substantial level,things can de-lever.It's debt that has come to the forefront the past several years in the global economy,and that's what we need to worry about.*
An economy can't grow very fast if wages can't grow more than .6%.I think TIPS are a decent value,to the extent the Fed will reach their 2% inflation target.*
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP),Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund;A (JUCAX)

Investment Issues:Fed Policy;China;Oil and Transport

The Fed hasn't learned the lessons of what they did 10 years ago,and I fear they're doing it again,said Stephen Roach,senior fellow at Yale University.Is a one percent rate hike going to restrain the economy?Absolutely not.If anything,the Fed is going to disappoint us in terms of how much it adjusts rates this year.They're in total denial that cheap money and an accommodative policy had anything to do with the train wreck of 08-09.The US really needs export growth as it contemplates the weakness of the American consumer.
I've been completely optimistic on China.It's slowed,but with a slowing that was implemented strategically.China's adamant about going to market-based systems.Defaults are a sign of health in this.
The Fed is fearful of doing its job as a steward of the real economy,Mr.Roach added.*
Volatility has to wring itself out,acording to Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital.The bulls have to make a new high here,or the Dow will slip below 17,000.We've been long TLT,the long Treasury bond etf,all of 2014,but we're getting close to taking some off the table.We're going to have oil in the 40s;eventually,we're going to have oil in the 60s.
If the historic trend following such a steep oil price decline is followed,CNBC floor reporter Bob Pisani pointed out,oil will be at 75.00 in the second half of the year.*
Actually,I think the decline in oil prices is going to help us,said CSX chairman and CEO Michael Ward.It's good for the consumer.We're seeing the volumes continue the same as they were before the decline.We fully pass on the lower fuel prices to our customers,based on the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.We were up about six percent in carloads.We see an uptick in virtually every market we serve.We expect to grow beyond the rate of the economy.There are some issues on the west coast now,but over time that may create more shipments through the east coast,the railroad executive explained.*
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT),CSX Transportation(CSX)

Asset Management:Inflows and Strategy

We had 8 billion of equity inflows in Q2,said Larry Fink,CEO of BlackRock,the world's largest asset manager.I do think for those investors overweight in bonds,I recommend moving some of it into equities,looking at your bond portfolio and moving it from your core strategy into unconstrained strategies.Expect to see tens of billions move to unconstrained bond funds. As more and more moves into etfs,we are gonna be lowering our fees.As of yesterday,we saw 6 billion of inflows into etfs this month.The market has come a long ways.We've seen some very good earnings,but I would never be surprised to see a 5% correction.I look at it as a buying opportunity. We own 5% of PepsiCo.We think Indra Nooyi is doing a very good job.We are very happy with her imaginative team and strategy. I think the Fed will move to a change of policy in the next six months.We should all be prepared.For investors focused on the long term,whether it's in September or December isn't important.We're gonna see a shrinkage of Treasury borrowing for the next five years,with as high as a 5% ten year by 2015,Larry Fink projected. PepsiCo(PEP),BlackRock(BLK)

Bond Market Impact:The Implications of Rising Rates

The recent bond sell-off and concomittant rise in interest rates present both challenges and opportunities.
I think we're gonna see a slowing in housing,said Bliss Morris,CEO of First Financial Network.Rising rates could certainly affect newer borrowers.Those still involved in renting could have some trouble buying a home.
California is doing better,the sand states of Arizona,Florida and Nevada,but secondary and tertiary markets could be in trouble.Our community banks are suffering from regulations and have not totally sold off their non-performing assests.
The next opportunities could be in the Euro-zone,with its many foreclosed properties.I don't think they've totally stabilised.They face some challenges with cultural and linguistic differences.
We do think the Treasury market offers value here,said Mark Kiesel,managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO.We see a much weaker economy,and so we see value.We just don't see the economy generating jobs growth.There's a lot of consumer debt and unemployment is structurally high.
We're going through an unwinding of risk,creating volatility,but over time,the Fed will take another point of view and rates will go back down,Mr.Kiesel projected.
Mark Kiesel was Morningstar Associate's 2012 Fixed Income Manager of the Year.

Issues in Money Management

BlackRock is the world's largest money manager,owning the iShares exchange traded funds.Consumer confidence is up,but manufacturing is down,BlackRock CEO Larry Fink noted.Private sector deleveraging is still going on.
I actually believe we can't find enough good investments.Bonds are no longer providing sufficient return.
Emerging markets are probably today relatively cheap compared to where they were a few years ago.
We need a mandatory savings policy in the US.Retirement is an even bigger issue than tax policy.We need to educate Americans about the longevity of life.
I'm not worried about retirees.I'm worried about the young people who are not putting money away for retirement.We have men and women who should have more choice-maybe with the mandatory savings plan as a backup.
Everything that we face today is more short-termism.Most market partcipants make money on the velocity of money,on quick trades.It's the 24/7 news cycle,the annual election of board members.Some form of elongation is needed.
One of the big issues is confidence.We're sitting with a trillion dollars in money market funds by corporations.
Five years is the average term of CEOs.You see more short term changes in their behaviour.
BlackRock is the largest shareholder of JP Morgan Chase,and is among the top three shareholders of many other firms.Less pressure on board members means better outcomes,Mr.Fink suggested.
BlackRock(BLK)

Portfolio Management:The Need For Income Now

We've transitioned to an emergency need for income,said Rick Rieder,Chief Investment Officer of Fundamental Fixed Income at BlackRock.Rates are gonna be low for a long time.To get any real income,you have to take risk at levels that are uncomfortable.
Central banks are crowding out investments at a record level.You create a portfolio rebalancing act that is profound.We live in a delevering world.You'll create bubbles like we had in prior decades if it goes on for too long.
Maybe there will be no tapering of Fed policy until 2014.Because you're distorting the interest rates so low and lengthening the portfolio,you're creating potential risk in the fixed income portfolio higher than in equities.Tactical short term,we've taken some interest rate exposure;longer term,loans and structured products without a lot of interest rate risks,such as CMBS,collateralised mortgaged-backed securities.
We think the growth of the real estate business has some real durability to it.People underestimate what a big deal it is.You have an environment of liquidity today.It's part of what will keep the real estate market in strong shape.
The delevering in Europe is gonna go on for years.
It's very hard to generate yield when the 10 year Treasury is at 1.50%,Mr.Rieder pointed out.Central bank policies are causing a haircut for investors,PIMCO co-CIO Bill Gross agreed.
People are excited about the equity market,yet anxious about the artificiality of central bank assistance,his colleague Mohamed El-Erian added.If these prices are not validated by data,they will look very artificial.
BlackRock,Inc(BLK)

Trust Company Distrusts the Market

This is a financially engineered market,said Michael Crofton,President and CEO of The Philadelphia Trust Company,engineered by central banks.Bonds and commodities are telling us that stocks are too high,and there could be a crash.
The pullback will come from a macro-event that will surprise everyone.The Federal Reserve won't be able to do much more to help.Those high points of similar markets in the past coincided with the peak of financial engineering.
We rotated out of consumer staples in March and into underperforming energy and technology.The rise of staples had been unsustainable.You just keep rotating,and when the music stops,you'd better hope you're sitting down.
The Philadelphia Trust is an independent private bank serving affluent investors and institutions.The company says it brings old-fashioned values such as attention and discretion into the post-modern world.It offers a full range of services,from custody and trading to income distribution,CDs and scheduled client reviews.
In equity investing,the Trust strictly adheres to the growth at a reasonable price discipline.
On Wednesday,the Federal Reserve said it would continue its quantitative easing policy of bond-buying to keep interest rates low,in effect driving investors more into equities.

Goldman Sachs and the Global Markets

We're in a better part of the cycle right now,said Gary Cohn,President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs.Our results in 2012 were a direct reflection of what our customers needed and wanted to do,and we've been there to facilitate that.We have adapted our business to really accommodate and facilitate our customers' needs.
We are a fiduciary for our shareholders.We increased our dividend two times in 2012.
I think we've got our compensation right for our people.We're in a very competitive industry and the capital we have is human capital.The average 2012 pay was about 400k.
As I look out at 2013,I feel that we're in a relatively good position in terms of head count.We look at global GDP.If we see an upward move,that will stimulate our customers and we will hire people to serve them.
The zero interest rate policy will end at some point and that will be positive for our business.I'm fairly bullish about global stock markets.With blue chip stocks,you're long inflation and long global growth.
We can't be the buyer of last resort of fixed income.Somebody has to buy it.The zero interest rate policy clearly drives down currency values.
I think a sudden or dramatic backup in rates would be shocking to the market.I'm not sure that capital can come back into the market quick enough.Just because it's a bond doesn't mean it doesn't go down.Bond prices go down as interest rates go up.
Goldman Sachs(GS)

Asset Manager:Observations and Opportunities

It will reach a point where Spain needs the bailout package,said Mark Konyn,PhD,CEO of Cathay Conning Asset Management.Italy is not at all out of the woods yet.Overall,the whole process has been delay and delay and delay,to drag things out as long as possible.
With regard to the US fiscal cliff,everyone has some thing to lose in this.I think they will mediate a compromise that allows them to roll the whole thing over for twelve months hence.The cost of going over the cliff would be a massive setback globally,with a 4% GDP loss.
In Europe,Greece is not the main issue;Spain is.Investors are taking more risk in their bond portfolio.There are also opportunities within equities for taking on risk.They will continue into next year.
The catalyst for Chinese stocks is not there.In March,there will be some infrastructure spending in China.There will be some opportunities around that,Dr.Konyn pointed out.
Cathay Conning Asset Management is a provider of innovative asset management solutions to institutions and insurers in the Asia Pacific region,offering a differentiated suite of investment products and services.
Mark Konyn has a doctorate in Risk Analysis from London Metropolitan University and was a fellow at University College London.He is currently a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.

Where The Financial Problem Is-and how to deal with it

The problem is,central banks don't have the right tools,according to Mohamed El-Erian,CEO of PIMCO.The best they can do is provide a bridge,but it has to be a bridge to somewhere.
The politicians aren't doing enough.People are refusing to invest because of the uncertainty.The Fed has been the investor's best friend,supporting valuations and markets.
Our baseline is 1.5% growth-plus or minus 0.5%.If politicians don't get their act together,that would push us into recession.If nothing happens,that will unambiguously throw us into recession.
The sooner,the better.Already businesses are pulling back,investing less.
Be very careful.Focus on sovereigns and companies with strong balance sheets and can give back cash to shareholders,Mr.El-Erian counseled.
Mohamed El-Erian is also co-Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO along with founder Bill Gross.The company now offers a wide range of both active and passive exchange-traded funds,as well as mutual funds.

Asking Much of China

Pete Fisher,a Vice-President at BlackRock,the world's largest money manager,thinks we're getting to the point where China has to tighten their policy.He fears we'll have more friction,but he's hoping we won't.He's worried about too much hype.We can over-hype how much we can get out of Chinese exchange rate hikes when they do occur.It would cool down their economy.We don't want China to have inflation or a bubble.
What a revaluation of the yuan may not do is affect our trade relations,Mr.Fisher points out.It's terrific for the world economy for China to have cerated all this wealth over the past 20 years.We've got to be careful not to expect too much from what they've accomplished.
BlackRock isn't afraid of the long end in bonds.Mr.Fisher believes the economy is gonna do O.K.,but not brilliantly.BlackRock thinks if the economy is gonna do O.K.,that's gonna mean a sideways movement in interest rates,attractive to investors at the long end.Some analysts have been warning investors that the long bond will collapse under inflationary pressure.