Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Federal Reserve Notebook:October 31,2013

The Federal Reserve ended its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday,deciding to continue its QE3 stimulus program of buying bonds at a rate of 85 billion dollars a month.Fiscal policy issues were restraining growth,the Fed said,what with sequestration,the government shutdown and the debt ceiling problem hindering recovery.While the overall economy is expanding at a moderate pace,the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months.*
I'm a human being,admitted economist and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.I can't see farther into the future than anyone else can.I won't apologize for not being Superman.
The average annual post-war increase in stock prices is 7%,so we are at relatively low stock prices.We're just above '07 levels.PE ratios are not hugely up.
The level of construction has gone up significantly,but it's only a third of where it was pre-crisis.
Chairman nominee Janet Yellen was President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.She was on the Fed Board of Governors.She got all the briefings I did,so she knows what she's doing,Mr.Greenspan noted.
Dr.Greenspan,87,was Fed Chairman from 1987-2006.His new book is "The Map and the Territory:Risk,Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting."He also wrote the pre-crisis book "The Age of Turbulence:Adventures in a New World."*
I think it's really unlikely that Janet Yellen isn't gonna get in,said Randall Kroszner,51,former member of the Fed Board of Governors and now Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.She has a good feel for things.She's battle-tested and data-driven.There will be a lot of continuity.She comes from a similar school,always came to the meetings well-briefed.She would talk about the data and the analysis of the data.Many of the others are data-centered.
We now have a much better sense of linkages of firms and markets.At the Fed,we regularly hear from financial services executives and other financial people.Some people are more straightforward about what's going on;some just talk their book,Dr.Kroszner observed.*

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