It will reach a point where Spain needs the bailout package,said Mark Konyn,PhD,CEO of Cathay Conning Asset Management.Italy is not at all out of the woods yet.Overall,the whole process has been delay and delay and delay,to drag things out as long as possible.
With regard to the US fiscal cliff,everyone has some thing to lose in this.I think they will mediate a compromise that allows them to roll the whole thing over for twelve months hence.The cost of going over the cliff would be a massive setback globally,with a 4% GDP loss.
In Europe,Greece is not the main issue;Spain is.Investors are taking more risk in their bond portfolio.There are also opportunities within equities for taking on risk.They will continue into next year.
The catalyst for Chinese stocks is not there.In March,there will be some infrastructure spending in China.There will be some opportunities around that,Dr.Konyn pointed out.
Cathay Conning Asset Management is a provider of innovative asset management solutions to institutions and insurers in the Asia Pacific region,offering a differentiated suite of investment products and services.
Mark Konyn has a doctorate in Risk Analysis from London Metropolitan University and was a fellow at University College London.He is currently a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.
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