Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Afghanistan,Syria and Iran:Intelligence Perpsectives

Afghanistan is a very mixed bag,said Lieutenant General James R. Clapper,Jr.,US Air Force retired,Director of National Intelligence.The upcoming election there is gonna be a very good indicator of where these loyalties lie,General Clapper told the Senate Armed Forces Committee April 18.It's very much a tribal country,somewhat artificial in terms of what we think of as a country.
Iran does worry about a significant restiveness in the street that would threaten the regime.Perhaps this will play out in the forthcoming Iranian election if they put forth a candidate not favoured by the Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Khamenei.
I believe there are lots of weapons in Syria.I am not convinced that supplying more weapons to the opposition will have an impact on cost/benefit.Even a partial no-fly zone is not a trivial undertaking.They have a significant anti-air capability,depending on who is operating it.
Syria has had a huge impact on the neighbouring countries,the spillover of the fighting into Jordan and Lebanon.Iran will continue to support President Bashar Al-Assad.His fall would be a huge strategic loss to Iran.They are training people in Iran and taking them back to Syria.
The jihadis in the opposition,most notably al Nusra,have recently pledged their allegiance to al Qaeda.They are present in 13 of 14 provinces,where they provide humanitarian aid and Islamic courts.
Syria is a very complex situation.The magnet it has turned into for foreign fighters,including 400 Europeans-it is black and white and several shades of grey in between.
General Clapper,72,is a Vietnam veteran and served in the US Air Force from 1963-95.He was Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence from 2007-10,and was appointed Director of National Intelligence,the US intelligence chief,in 2011.Before the 9-11 attacks,this role belonged to the CIA director.

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