Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Friday, May 31, 2024
NATO Secretary General press conference at Foreign Ministers Meeting, Prague,Czechia CZ 31 MAY 2024
Decisions:
1Greater NATO role in military equipment and training;
2.Alliance commits to multiyear financial support for Ukraine;
3.Discussed Ukrainian path to NATO membership,Ukraine's future in NATO.
Monday, May 27, 2024
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Monday, January 29, 2024
Monday, December 18, 2017
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
US Global Strike Assets Help Intensify NATO Exercise
Two US Air Force B-1B Lancer supersonic bombers from the 459th Bomb Group,Dyess Air Force Base,Texas,and a B-52H Stratofortress bomber were sent to RAF Fairford,England recently to participate in Exercise Ample Strike 16 in the Czech Republic.The strategic,nuclear-capable aircraft are part of US Global Strike Command.They were deployed in support of the NATO drills for JTACs,or Joint Terminal attack Controllers,that involved 1500 military personnel from 16 NATO Allies and partners.The troops were trained in realistic,complex and demanding scenarios.Besides JTACs,who call in and guide close air support for ground forces,Ample Strike also trains aircrews and commanders of ground forces.*
The training was conducted for both day and nighttime operations,improving interoperability.For example,a Czech ground commander communicated with a Finnish JTAC;a convoy waited for close air support during an improvised attack;simulated mortar attacks were carried out;and US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from 12th Air Combat Brigade in Katterbach,Bayern,Germany visited a forward fueling station.*
The presence of the heavy US bombers underlined the seriousness of the warfighting drills,which thereby had at their call some of the world's most powerful,flexible and long-ranging weapon systems from US Global Strike Command.They were an unmistakable message of assurance and deterrence from NATO to the most advanced,belligerent and determined potential adversaries,such as Russia,China,Iran and North Korea.
The training was conducted for both day and nighttime operations,improving interoperability.For example,a Czech ground commander communicated with a Finnish JTAC;a convoy waited for close air support during an improvised attack;simulated mortar attacks were carried out;and US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from 12th Air Combat Brigade in Katterbach,Bayern,Germany visited a forward fueling station.*
The presence of the heavy US bombers underlined the seriousness of the warfighting drills,which thereby had at their call some of the world's most powerful,flexible and long-ranging weapon systems from US Global Strike Command.They were an unmistakable message of assurance and deterrence from NATO to the most advanced,belligerent and determined potential adversaries,such as Russia,China,Iran and North Korea.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Combating ISIL:Where It Stands Now
We are providing the Syrian Kurds with a tremendous amount of air support,said General Lloyd Austin,Commander of US Central Command,at a hearing before the Senate Armed Forces Committee on 16 September.A portion of this element held on in Kobani.They've increased their size and activity and made a significant difference in the Northeast, with the help of the sustained airstrikes they requested.They will also need to partner with the Syrian Arabs in the neighbourhood,and we're helping them with that.
Turkey has shortened the lengths our fighter pilots are forced to fly.They are focused on ISIL elements in Syria,and we have asked them to tighten up their borders to stop the flow of foreign fighters.We will provide air support to our trained fighters and intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance over-watch,and have already done so with our first class of trained fighters.We have undertaken airstrikes for trained Syrians under threat by al-Nusra.What our special operations forces have done in Northern Syria is,they began to train elements like the YPG Kurds.There are ten of thousands of Kurds on the battlefield fighting ISIL.*
Only four or five of our first class of moderate Syrian fighters are in combat now,explained Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth.The others were captured by ISIL or fled from them.Immediately they entered Syria,they were attacked by ISIL.
Note:soon after the hearing,a second class of 75 US-trained Syrian fighters graduated.*
The assessment right now is,the Assad regime is not in immanent danger of falling.We're going to make sure we have the ability to protect ourselves at all times,General Austin added.
1.We remain vigilant.
2.We work in the battlespace in such a way that we avoid conflicted zones as much as possible.
3.We routinely use all of our ISR assets before we use weapons.
4.Our joint tactical air controllers are in the command and control centres.They have visibility of what's going on in the target area and visibility of where the friendly troops are.*
ISIL is a transnational threat,and if left unchecked,it will continue to expand and occupy territory,erase international boundaries and export terror to other parts of the world-and in particular,to places like our homeland.We see the beginning of this in the lone wolf phenomenon,and the threat will continue to increase.
Assad is losing capability every day.The wild card is,if Iran or Russia move in and shore him up,that would extend things for a period of time.We continue to look at what the possibilities for encounters with the Russians are.The Russians have not started operations as of this point.Our pilots have to have certainty that there are ISIL targets that can be engaged.We can see the targets,so that is not an issue.*
In Iraq,we're going to need a greater commitment from the partners we're enabling.I think they want Mosul back;they want to stabilise Anbar first,and then take back Mosul.*
Iraq is starting to open the pipelines as to which units will be trained,said Ms.Wormuth.They are starting to plan for this.There are now 4,000 Sunni fighters in Anbar that weren't there six months ago.*
Our airpower is supporting the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Arabs who are with them.They are not enough to counter ISIL alone.ISIL has made a net gain in personnel over the past 24-36 months,General Austin told the Committee;but they have less money.
Turkey has shortened the lengths our fighter pilots are forced to fly.They are focused on ISIL elements in Syria,and we have asked them to tighten up their borders to stop the flow of foreign fighters.We will provide air support to our trained fighters and intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance over-watch,and have already done so with our first class of trained fighters.We have undertaken airstrikes for trained Syrians under threat by al-Nusra.What our special operations forces have done in Northern Syria is,they began to train elements like the YPG Kurds.There are ten of thousands of Kurds on the battlefield fighting ISIL.*
Only four or five of our first class of moderate Syrian fighters are in combat now,explained Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth.The others were captured by ISIL or fled from them.Immediately they entered Syria,they were attacked by ISIL.
Note:soon after the hearing,a second class of 75 US-trained Syrian fighters graduated.*
The assessment right now is,the Assad regime is not in immanent danger of falling.We're going to make sure we have the ability to protect ourselves at all times,General Austin added.
1.We remain vigilant.
2.We work in the battlespace in such a way that we avoid conflicted zones as much as possible.
3.We routinely use all of our ISR assets before we use weapons.
4.Our joint tactical air controllers are in the command and control centres.They have visibility of what's going on in the target area and visibility of where the friendly troops are.*
ISIL is a transnational threat,and if left unchecked,it will continue to expand and occupy territory,erase international boundaries and export terror to other parts of the world-and in particular,to places like our homeland.We see the beginning of this in the lone wolf phenomenon,and the threat will continue to increase.
Assad is losing capability every day.The wild card is,if Iran or Russia move in and shore him up,that would extend things for a period of time.We continue to look at what the possibilities for encounters with the Russians are.The Russians have not started operations as of this point.Our pilots have to have certainty that there are ISIL targets that can be engaged.We can see the targets,so that is not an issue.*
In Iraq,we're going to need a greater commitment from the partners we're enabling.I think they want Mosul back;they want to stabilise Anbar first,and then take back Mosul.*
Iraq is starting to open the pipelines as to which units will be trained,said Ms.Wormuth.They are starting to plan for this.There are now 4,000 Sunni fighters in Anbar that weren't there six months ago.*
Our airpower is supporting the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Arabs who are with them.They are not enough to counter ISIL alone.ISIL has made a net gain in personnel over the past 24-36 months,General Austin told the Committee;but they have less money.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Deterring the Changing Threats
We need to update our deterrence and response model to Russia's hybrid threat,said General Joseph Dunford,USMC,before the Senate Armed Services Committee at his confirmation hearing last month.I think rotational forces are envisioned,along with prepositioning equipment and infrastructure.Quite frankly,I think that kind of threat is one we're going to face in the future-the idea of deterrence to the changing threats we face.
Russia is not just threatening;they are actually doing it.My assessment today is that Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security.It is a nuclear power that could pose an existential threat to the United States,and their recent acts are nothing short of alarming.I also think it's important to maintain a military-to-military relationship with them to prevent the chance of miscalculation.
Russia is aggressively moving military forces into the Arctic-we need a plan,noted Senator Dan Sullivan,R-Arkansas.
We will in fact develop an appropriate role for the military in support of our political and military goals for the Arctic,General Dunford promised.
Modernising our nuclear deterrence is the nation's top military priority.I think we need to think about how we are going to fund it,as opposed to whether we are going to do it,in that we face a nation that is an existential threat.The Ohio-class submarine is the most survivable part of the nuclear deterrence triad,and critical to modernise.*
With regard to Iran's current activities and support of activities,Iran is one of he most destabilising influences in the region today.They're exacerbating the Sunni-Shia divide.From my perspective,they have provided support to the Taliban in Afghanistan versus ISIL.The Shia militants in Iraq could be a malign influence and certainly we shouldn't provide any support to them.My expectation is,Iran will continue the malign activity across the Middle East that we have seen in recent years.My understanding is,we have the military capacity to destroy Iran's nuclear program.I'll make sure that our leadership has a full range of military options for dealing with Iranian military activity.We have both the plans and the capacity in place to deal with a wide range of contingencies in Iran.
Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a significant threat to the homeland,especially with a ballistic missile,and would be destabilising in the region,causing a nuclear arms race.
In Iraq,there's no question in my mind that retaking Ramadi from ISIL is a strategic action.I've got both a personal and professional stake in Anbar Province,having lived there for years.*
China's military capability and presence in the Pacific are an area of concern,as distinct from a threat.There's no question about our rebalance to the Pacific.We have an unprecedented number of exercises in the Pacific.The rebalance is aimed at modernising our presence,explained General Dunford,recently confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.He will be sworn in next month.
Russia is not just threatening;they are actually doing it.My assessment today is that Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security.It is a nuclear power that could pose an existential threat to the United States,and their recent acts are nothing short of alarming.I also think it's important to maintain a military-to-military relationship with them to prevent the chance of miscalculation.
Russia is aggressively moving military forces into the Arctic-we need a plan,noted Senator Dan Sullivan,R-Arkansas.
We will in fact develop an appropriate role for the military in support of our political and military goals for the Arctic,General Dunford promised.
Modernising our nuclear deterrence is the nation's top military priority.I think we need to think about how we are going to fund it,as opposed to whether we are going to do it,in that we face a nation that is an existential threat.The Ohio-class submarine is the most survivable part of the nuclear deterrence triad,and critical to modernise.*
With regard to Iran's current activities and support of activities,Iran is one of he most destabilising influences in the region today.They're exacerbating the Sunni-Shia divide.From my perspective,they have provided support to the Taliban in Afghanistan versus ISIL.The Shia militants in Iraq could be a malign influence and certainly we shouldn't provide any support to them.My expectation is,Iran will continue the malign activity across the Middle East that we have seen in recent years.My understanding is,we have the military capacity to destroy Iran's nuclear program.I'll make sure that our leadership has a full range of military options for dealing with Iranian military activity.We have both the plans and the capacity in place to deal with a wide range of contingencies in Iran.
Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a significant threat to the homeland,especially with a ballistic missile,and would be destabilising in the region,causing a nuclear arms race.
In Iraq,there's no question in my mind that retaking Ramadi from ISIL is a strategic action.I've got both a personal and professional stake in Anbar Province,having lived there for years.*
China's military capability and presence in the Pacific are an area of concern,as distinct from a threat.There's no question about our rebalance to the Pacific.We have an unprecedented number of exercises in the Pacific.The rebalance is aimed at modernising our presence,explained General Dunford,recently confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.He will be sworn in next month.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Defeating ISIL:Strategic Leadership and the Coalition
ISIL is really operating as a criminal gang and death cult,sending naieve and gullible recruits to die by the hundreds,General John R. Allen,US Marine Corps Retired,Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL,told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 25 February.ISIL has lost one half of its Iraq-based leadership.We actually do have pretty good intelligence in this matter.
The number of ISIL recruits is up because we're tracking them better,and because of the Caliphate's appeal.Defeating ISIL is when they are not an existential threat to Iraq or other states in the region.We want them to have no operational capability,break them up into small organisations that can't mass to be operationally significant.
I have met with many of the sheikhs,and I've been very pleased with their willingness to accept the leadership of Prime Minister Abadi and the Defence Minister.We're training and equipping 12 Iraqi brigades,three of them Kurdish.There will be a clearing force and a holding force,plus immediate humanitarian assistance.It's very important that the effort have an Arab face and a Muslim voice.
The Syrian recruitment numbers (for training to fight ISIL in Syria) are much higher than we thought.We have an old friendship with Turkey,and think there has been much progress toward providing protection for the moderate Syrian forces.The real issue is,how do we protect our allies?
ISIL is an evil that we haven't seen in a very long time.As long as we're at the front of it,we can prevent another 9-11.The interpretation that they apply has permitted them to do the things they have done to certain groups such as Christians and Yazidis.The infusion of a large conventional,maneuverable force would change the nature of the conversation.The US brings to bear:
1.The capacity of our strategic leadership of the 62 countries and five Arab air forces in first strike.
2.Technical,intelligence support,special operations strke capabilities,training and the aggregation of these.
3.The capacity for Arab partners to be the defeat mechanism for Daesh,the Arabic word for ISIL.
There have been about 2500 air strikes since the campaign began on 8 August 2014.The combination of US and coalition airpower,together with the training and equipping of regional forces will enable us to achieve our strategic goals.
We are not cooperating with Iran.We are not accommodating Iran.
The President's proposed Authorization for the Use of Military Force has limitations about offensive maneuver forces.We may find that locations or allies may need to be defended.Each of those circumstances would have to be judged independently.There's a prohibition in the AUMF against the use of large,enduring ground forces such as those we used in Iraq and Afghanistan."Enduring" might be only two weeks-or it might be two years.It's all about matching the contingency,explained General Allen,who was the Afghan War commander from 2011-13.
The number of ISIL recruits is up because we're tracking them better,and because of the Caliphate's appeal.Defeating ISIL is when they are not an existential threat to Iraq or other states in the region.We want them to have no operational capability,break them up into small organisations that can't mass to be operationally significant.
I have met with many of the sheikhs,and I've been very pleased with their willingness to accept the leadership of Prime Minister Abadi and the Defence Minister.We're training and equipping 12 Iraqi brigades,three of them Kurdish.There will be a clearing force and a holding force,plus immediate humanitarian assistance.It's very important that the effort have an Arab face and a Muslim voice.
The Syrian recruitment numbers (for training to fight ISIL in Syria) are much higher than we thought.We have an old friendship with Turkey,and think there has been much progress toward providing protection for the moderate Syrian forces.The real issue is,how do we protect our allies?
ISIL is an evil that we haven't seen in a very long time.As long as we're at the front of it,we can prevent another 9-11.The interpretation that they apply has permitted them to do the things they have done to certain groups such as Christians and Yazidis.The infusion of a large conventional,maneuverable force would change the nature of the conversation.The US brings to bear:
1.The capacity of our strategic leadership of the 62 countries and five Arab air forces in first strike.
2.Technical,intelligence support,special operations strke capabilities,training and the aggregation of these.
3.The capacity for Arab partners to be the defeat mechanism for Daesh,the Arabic word for ISIL.
There have been about 2500 air strikes since the campaign began on 8 August 2014.The combination of US and coalition airpower,together with the training and equipping of regional forces will enable us to achieve our strategic goals.
We are not cooperating with Iran.We are not accommodating Iran.
The President's proposed Authorization for the Use of Military Force has limitations about offensive maneuver forces.We may find that locations or allies may need to be defended.Each of those circumstances would have to be judged independently.There's a prohibition in the AUMF against the use of large,enduring ground forces such as those we used in Iraq and Afghanistan."Enduring" might be only two weeks-or it might be two years.It's all about matching the contingency,explained General Allen,who was the Afghan War commander from 2011-13.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
The Geneva Syria Talks:Change and Danger
Secretary of State John Kerry is headed for Geneva,Switzerland for two days of talks with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.Each side will bring technical experts to assess the proposed turnover of Syria's chemical weapons to international supervision and evaluate the way forward,according to White House spokesman Jay Carney.At the same time,there are discussions at the UN to frame a Security Council resolution on the matter.We are working with Great Britain and France on the resolution.
The process needs to be credible and verifiable.After 20 years,Syria suddenly acknowledges it has chemical weapons and says it will sign the convention against their use.This is significant.
The president never considered canceling his Tuesday night speech.It is still very important for the president to speak to the American people.We will continue to have this discussion in the days ahead.This is far too complex an issue to reduce to a single phrase or words.
Russia has made this proposal and is engaging with other members of the UN Security Council.Russia's prestige is on the line.
There's no question very significant changes have taken place from the recent past.We go into this with eyes wide open.The goal of the Geneva meeting is to test the seriousness of the Russian proposal,Mr.Carney indicated.
Congressman Peter King,R-New York,said I have multiple concerns about Russia.We have now made Russia a major player in the Middle East.They will have influence over the region,and we will be almost indebted to them.Iran is actually more of a threat than Syria.
We've pretty much given immmunity to Assad.We should be extremely sceptical,extremely wary and not make any more concessions.We have to take a tough line with Russia.Russian President Vladimir Putin strengthens Syria and Iran's position in the Middle East.Don't give the benefit of the doubt to Putin.He wants to reestablish Russia and assert himself in a powerful way,Congressman King warned.
Mr.Putin is being seen as a man who does business with Syria and Iran,obsessively cultivating a Cold War mentality of being the counterweight to the influence of the United States.The Russians are part of the problem in Syria;they are not credibly part of the solution,said Senator John Cornyn,R-Texas.
The process needs to be credible and verifiable.After 20 years,Syria suddenly acknowledges it has chemical weapons and says it will sign the convention against their use.This is significant.
The president never considered canceling his Tuesday night speech.It is still very important for the president to speak to the American people.We will continue to have this discussion in the days ahead.This is far too complex an issue to reduce to a single phrase or words.
Russia has made this proposal and is engaging with other members of the UN Security Council.Russia's prestige is on the line.
There's no question very significant changes have taken place from the recent past.We go into this with eyes wide open.The goal of the Geneva meeting is to test the seriousness of the Russian proposal,Mr.Carney indicated.
Congressman Peter King,R-New York,said I have multiple concerns about Russia.We have now made Russia a major player in the Middle East.They will have influence over the region,and we will be almost indebted to them.Iran is actually more of a threat than Syria.
We've pretty much given immmunity to Assad.We should be extremely sceptical,extremely wary and not make any more concessions.We have to take a tough line with Russia.Russian President Vladimir Putin strengthens Syria and Iran's position in the Middle East.Don't give the benefit of the doubt to Putin.He wants to reestablish Russia and assert himself in a powerful way,Congressman King warned.
Mr.Putin is being seen as a man who does business with Syria and Iran,obsessively cultivating a Cold War mentality of being the counterweight to the influence of the United States.The Russians are part of the problem in Syria;they are not credibly part of the solution,said Senator John Cornyn,R-Texas.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Syria:Bigger By the Day
A number of Obama administration officials continued their lobbying efforts for military action against Syria on Wednesday,fielding wide-ranging questions from sometimes irate Members of Congress.The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations did vote to approve the mission 10-7 after a classified briefing.
Polls show the American public largely opposed to the mission.The story is huge and growing,taking up the lion's share of cable news broadcasts.Some are calling for the President to address the American people on Syria from the Oval Office in prime time.
*We know that Assad will read our silence as a sign he can use his weapons with impunity.Iran and North Korea are listening for our silence.This is a vote for accountablity,Secretary of State John Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.Degrading his chemical weapons will have an impact on the battlefield.There will be downstream impacts.
These weapons pose a grave threat to our allies Israel,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Iraq.North Korea maintains a massive chemical weapons stockpile that threatens 20,000 US troops on the border.
There have been 60-100 officer and enlisted defections from the Assad regime in the last day or so.There are serious questions in the elite of Syria that are asking if Assad has gone too far.
Currently in the region,a number of countries have offered to be part of the military action-more countries than our military thinks we need.France and others in the region are prepared to be part of the operation with us.
Arab countries have offered to bear the cost and assist us.They've been quite significant offers-up to the whole cost,if the US does what it's done in the past.
*This will not be a pinprick;it will be a strike that degrades his capability,added Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.We have spent days and days going over every option and contingency,such as embassy security and collateral damage.
Allies will provide basing and overflight rights,noted General Martin Dempsey,Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.The focus and purpose will give us the best chance of limiting it.I can never discount the possibility of escalation,but we've kept it as low as possible.
Congressman Eliot Engel,D-New York,an expert on Syria,is concerned about the message we send to Iran as they pursue a dangerous nuclear capability.His colleague Dutch Ruppersberger,D-Maryland,pointed out that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds in the 1980s.Unchallenged,he went on to invade Kuwait in 1990.
*The whole Senate seems likely to approve the mission at this point,but the House of Representatives is an open question.It could be that the President will have to cast the deciding vote himself,as it were.
Polls show the American public largely opposed to the mission.The story is huge and growing,taking up the lion's share of cable news broadcasts.Some are calling for the President to address the American people on Syria from the Oval Office in prime time.
*We know that Assad will read our silence as a sign he can use his weapons with impunity.Iran and North Korea are listening for our silence.This is a vote for accountablity,Secretary of State John Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.Degrading his chemical weapons will have an impact on the battlefield.There will be downstream impacts.
These weapons pose a grave threat to our allies Israel,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Iraq.North Korea maintains a massive chemical weapons stockpile that threatens 20,000 US troops on the border.
There have been 60-100 officer and enlisted defections from the Assad regime in the last day or so.There are serious questions in the elite of Syria that are asking if Assad has gone too far.
Currently in the region,a number of countries have offered to be part of the military action-more countries than our military thinks we need.France and others in the region are prepared to be part of the operation with us.
Arab countries have offered to bear the cost and assist us.They've been quite significant offers-up to the whole cost,if the US does what it's done in the past.
*This will not be a pinprick;it will be a strike that degrades his capability,added Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.We have spent days and days going over every option and contingency,such as embassy security and collateral damage.
Allies will provide basing and overflight rights,noted General Martin Dempsey,Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.The focus and purpose will give us the best chance of limiting it.I can never discount the possibility of escalation,but we've kept it as low as possible.
Congressman Eliot Engel,D-New York,an expert on Syria,is concerned about the message we send to Iran as they pursue a dangerous nuclear capability.His colleague Dutch Ruppersberger,D-Maryland,pointed out that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds in the 1980s.Unchallenged,he went on to invade Kuwait in 1990.
*The whole Senate seems likely to approve the mission at this point,but the House of Representatives is an open question.It could be that the President will have to cast the deciding vote himself,as it were.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Afghanistan,Syria and Iran:Intelligence Perpsectives
Afghanistan is a very mixed bag,said Lieutenant General James R. Clapper,Jr.,US Air Force retired,Director of National Intelligence.The upcoming election there is gonna be a very good indicator of where these loyalties lie,General Clapper told the Senate Armed Forces Committee April 18.It's very much a tribal country,somewhat artificial in terms of what we think of as a country.
Iran does worry about a significant restiveness in the street that would threaten the regime.Perhaps this will play out in the forthcoming Iranian election if they put forth a candidate not favoured by the Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Khamenei.
I believe there are lots of weapons in Syria.I am not convinced that supplying more weapons to the opposition will have an impact on cost/benefit.Even a partial no-fly zone is not a trivial undertaking.They have a significant anti-air capability,depending on who is operating it.
Syria has had a huge impact on the neighbouring countries,the spillover of the fighting into Jordan and Lebanon.Iran will continue to support President Bashar Al-Assad.His fall would be a huge strategic loss to Iran.They are training people in Iran and taking them back to Syria.
The jihadis in the opposition,most notably al Nusra,have recently pledged their allegiance to al Qaeda.They are present in 13 of 14 provinces,where they provide humanitarian aid and Islamic courts.
Syria is a very complex situation.The magnet it has turned into for foreign fighters,including 400 Europeans-it is black and white and several shades of grey in between.
General Clapper,72,is a Vietnam veteran and served in the US Air Force from 1963-95.He was Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence from 2007-10,and was appointed Director of National Intelligence,the US intelligence chief,in 2011.Before the 9-11 attacks,this role belonged to the CIA director.
Iran does worry about a significant restiveness in the street that would threaten the regime.Perhaps this will play out in the forthcoming Iranian election if they put forth a candidate not favoured by the Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Khamenei.
I believe there are lots of weapons in Syria.I am not convinced that supplying more weapons to the opposition will have an impact on cost/benefit.Even a partial no-fly zone is not a trivial undertaking.They have a significant anti-air capability,depending on who is operating it.
Syria has had a huge impact on the neighbouring countries,the spillover of the fighting into Jordan and Lebanon.Iran will continue to support President Bashar Al-Assad.His fall would be a huge strategic loss to Iran.They are training people in Iran and taking them back to Syria.
The jihadis in the opposition,most notably al Nusra,have recently pledged their allegiance to al Qaeda.They are present in 13 of 14 provinces,where they provide humanitarian aid and Islamic courts.
Syria is a very complex situation.The magnet it has turned into for foreign fighters,including 400 Europeans-it is black and white and several shades of grey in between.
General Clapper,72,is a Vietnam veteran and served in the US Air Force from 1963-95.He was Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence from 2007-10,and was appointed Director of National Intelligence,the US intelligence chief,in 2011.Before the 9-11 attacks,this role belonged to the CIA director.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Executive Chairman:The Unreflected Risks
Three to four weeks ago,it just seemed to me the macro environment seemed to be stabilising,but now it seems a series of old and big question marks have returned,said Roger Altman,co-founder and Executive Chairman of Evercore Partners.These are 1.Europe;2.a weak U.S. recovery;and 3.the fiscal cliff in the U.S.Perception in so many cases is reality.Today the perception is,the Euro crisis is again front and center,with the political tumult in France and the Netherlands,and the PMI out this morning.The crisis is boiling up again.At the same time,the U.S. GDP continues to be profoundly weak.There are two exogenous factors that could be destabilising:1.Iran;and 2.an outright implosion in Europe.Neither one is playing through the markets right now,but they are big risks,Mr.Altman believes.
Mr.Altman was an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury from 1977-81 and Deputy Secretary from 1993-95.He has an MBA from the University of Chicago,and serves as a trustee of New York-Presbyterian Hospital and Vice-Chairman of the Board of the American Museum of Natural History.
Evercore Partners is a global independent investment banking advisory and wealth management firm.
Evercore Partners(EVR)
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
War With Iran:What To Expect-and what to do
President Barack Obama warned Iran Wednesday that the time left for a diplomatic solution is shrinking.Investors are contemplating just what to expect and how to respond if war indeed breaks out.Aaron Gurwitz,Chief Investment Officer at Barclays Wealth,says the problem is,this is an unknown unknown.I don't know how to assess the chances of a war.
In an attack on Iran,the price of oil would probably rise very sharply.It would be very hard to get oil to customers.Expect 150-200 dollar a barrel oil if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
It would be a huge impact on markets and the global economy.Risk assets such as equities and junk bonds would be sold.We at Barclays don't want to go into cash now.You might want to buy the VXX as volatility would spike,or an oil etf.
I worry about it as a citizen and an investment strategist.You hear people talking about starting a war in a very sensitive region.Those who would lose sleep should probably put something in their portfolio,Mr.Gurwitz counseled.
Barclays PLC ADR(BCS)
Some possibilities for the situation researched by this blog include:
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return(OIL)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN(VXZ)
It is generally unwise to concentrate too much in any one asset.Also bear in mind that VXX is more volatile than VXZ.None of the notes above pay dividends or interest.
For less experienced investors,allocating more to the bond and cash portions of their portfolios would seem the safest course in difficult times.Some of the most popular bond funds are:
iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund(AGG)
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF(BND)
In an attack on Iran,the price of oil would probably rise very sharply.It would be very hard to get oil to customers.Expect 150-200 dollar a barrel oil if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
It would be a huge impact on markets and the global economy.Risk assets such as equities and junk bonds would be sold.We at Barclays don't want to go into cash now.You might want to buy the VXX as volatility would spike,or an oil etf.
I worry about it as a citizen and an investment strategist.You hear people talking about starting a war in a very sensitive region.Those who would lose sleep should probably put something in their portfolio,Mr.Gurwitz counseled.
Barclays PLC ADR(BCS)
Some possibilities for the situation researched by this blog include:
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return(OIL)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN(VXZ)
It is generally unwise to concentrate too much in any one asset.Also bear in mind that VXX is more volatile than VXZ.None of the notes above pay dividends or interest.
For less experienced investors,allocating more to the bond and cash portions of their portfolios would seem the safest course in difficult times.Some of the most popular bond funds are:
iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund(AGG)
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF(BND)
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
OPEC:Bitterness in Vienna
By the end of June,Saudi Arabia will raise its oil production by up to 300,000 barrels a day,in order to restrain the price per barrel.When OPEC ministers met in Vienna recently,there was resistance to the Saudi example.OPEC,the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries,failed to reach an output consensus.It was basically Saudi Arabia versus Venezuela and Iran.
OPEC will evaluate the situation after three months.The next meeting is scheduled for December 13-14 in Vienna.OPEC stocks are currently three days above the five-year average,according to OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri.
Saudi Arabia is committed to supply the needs of the market,Saudi oil minister Ali El-Naimi said.This was one of the worst OPEC meetings he's ever had,Mr.El-Naimi remarked bitterly.A veteran of six decades of meetings,he saw that six countries were opposed to an increase in production,while six others supported it.It has been at least a decade since OPEC failed to reach a consensus.
OPEC is to maintain its current output for now.Nonetheless,in actuality,Saudi Arabia and three other Persian Gulf states are able to to boost production to the desired quota by themselves,should they so choose.
In spite of all the contention,Mr.El-Badri declared he was confident the cartel will reach a quota deal at the December meeting.To fail again would call the organisation's utility,and indeed its continued existence,seriously into question.
OPEC will evaluate the situation after three months.The next meeting is scheduled for December 13-14 in Vienna.OPEC stocks are currently three days above the five-year average,according to OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri.
Saudi Arabia is committed to supply the needs of the market,Saudi oil minister Ali El-Naimi said.This was one of the worst OPEC meetings he's ever had,Mr.El-Naimi remarked bitterly.A veteran of six decades of meetings,he saw that six countries were opposed to an increase in production,while six others supported it.It has been at least a decade since OPEC failed to reach a consensus.
OPEC is to maintain its current output for now.Nonetheless,in actuality,Saudi Arabia and three other Persian Gulf states are able to to boost production to the desired quota by themselves,should they so choose.
In spite of all the contention,Mr.El-Badri declared he was confident the cartel will reach a quota deal at the December meeting.To fail again would call the organisation's utility,and indeed its continued existence,seriously into question.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Bahrain's Approach To Business
Bahrain seeks to be an oasis of calm in the Gulf region and the global economy.Iran is its very big neighbor,and Bahrain's view is that for the region to remain stable,Iran must remain engaged with the world.
Because Bahrain's financial sector was diversified,it actually added jobs during the financial crisis.It focuses on insurance,not just banking.
Bahrain is building upon what successes it has:oil,financial services and manufacturing.Tourism,health care and so on fill in the gap.
Bahrain thinks it provides the best value proposition for your business.They live in an environment that is competitive.A steady,stable,prudent approach is better for them than a flash in the pan.
The ratings agencies have reaffirmed their support for what Bahrain is doing.Real estate prices have stabilized there.They are O.K. in Bahrain,according to the Crown Prince,Shaikh Salam bin Hamad al Khalifa.
Because Bahrain's financial sector was diversified,it actually added jobs during the financial crisis.It focuses on insurance,not just banking.
Bahrain is building upon what successes it has:oil,financial services and manufacturing.Tourism,health care and so on fill in the gap.
Bahrain thinks it provides the best value proposition for your business.They live in an environment that is competitive.A steady,stable,prudent approach is better for them than a flash in the pan.
The ratings agencies have reaffirmed their support for what Bahrain is doing.Real estate prices have stabilized there.They are O.K. in Bahrain,according to the Crown Prince,Shaikh Salam bin Hamad al Khalifa.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Gas Cartel Takes Shape
Qatar,Russia and Iran are well on the way to forming a natural gas cartel.Meeting in Iran recently,the countries intend to consolidate the largest gas reserves in the world as well as their general strategic interests,and cooperate on three-party projects.Two more meetings,to be held in Qatar and Russia,will finalize the agreement.The three nations own 60% of the world's natural gas reserves.The European Union is concerned about the cartel,since higher gas prices could result.As oil reserves dwindle,the cartel's natural gas reserves will increase in importance.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
EU Takes Action
The European Union has frozen the assets of Iran's Bank Meli.It is Iran's oldest and largest private bank.The move is in response to Iran's refusal to halt its nuclear program,which the West sees as a threat to international security.Meanwhile,Israel is reportedly practicing a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.Iran has said that,should this occur,it will exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz,through which much of the world's oil supply is shipped.Kuwait has been making its own plans in the event of conflict,to ensure that its oil would continue to reach its customers.All of this tension is a big factor in the surge of oil prices.Many believe oil would reach 200 dollars U.S. a barrel-or even more-if Israel bombed Iran.
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