Wednesday, January 13, 2016

China Mad For Star Wars,But For How Long?

China may be having stock market troubles,but it's people have gone out and spent their entertainment dollars anyway.Disney's Star Wars had a more than 53 million dollar opening in China-the largest film opening ever.*
You can't walk into a mall without running into Star Wars,it's been said.Our gross box office there is up 54% on the year,said Richard Gelford,CEO of Imax Corporation.I think there's a disconnect between the market and consumer discretionary in China.Star Wars had a more than 8.1 million Imax opening.We were up about 6% in China last night.We get real time feedback from a thousand theatres worldwide,Mr.Gelford explained.*
China has a massive buildup in debt,added Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Just when exactly this leads to a meltdown is hard to predict;but this is the main threat faced by the global economic community.The Chinese economy has become so large and important today.*
In the US, what we're looking for in 2016 is that growth forecasts will come down by a percent to just 1.5%.If you look at the history of commodity prices,they spend a long time,15-20 years,correcting the excesses.What you can expect is,an extensive trading range.I doubt we'll get much beyond 10-15% down.We'll probably get back to 40-50 dollar oil and languish there for a long time.*
Walt Disney (DIS),Imax Corp (IMAX),Morgan Stanley (MS)

No comments: