China Mad For Star Wars,But For How Long?

China may be having stock market troubles,but it's people have gone out and spent their entertainment dollars anyway.Disney's Star Wars had a more than 53 million dollar opening in China-the largest film opening ever.*
You can't walk into a mall without running into Star Wars,it's been said.Our gross box office there is up 54% on the year,said Richard Gelford,CEO of Imax Corporation.I think there's a disconnect between the market and consumer discretionary in China.Star Wars had a more than 8.1 million Imax opening.We were up about 6% in China last night.We get real time feedback from a thousand theatres worldwide,Mr.Gelford explained.*
China has a massive buildup in debt,added Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Just when exactly this leads to a meltdown is hard to predict;but this is the main threat faced by the global economic community.The Chinese economy has become so large and important today.*
In the US, what we're looking for in 2016 is that growth forecasts will come down by a percent to just 1.5%.If you look at the history of commodity prices,they spend a long time,15-20 years,correcting the excesses.What you can expect is,an extensive trading range.I doubt we'll get much beyond 10-15% down.We'll probably get back to 40-50 dollar oil and languish there for a long time.*
Walt Disney (DIS),Imax Corp (IMAX),Morgan Stanley (MS)

Leading Economic Advisor Says Barbells Are Best Portfolios

Mohamed El-Erian,chief economic advisor at Allianz,says he has a barbell investment strategy for the current conditions.It consists of cash and then more high risk exposures to startups and hedge funds,because the most highly trafficked part of the risk-return is the public markets.Why? Because the Fed has been pushing everybody to the public markets,pushing up market prices.So if you look at long-term valuation,it makes more sense to become bar-belled and reduce your exposure to the most heavily trafficked and artificially lifted asset prices.That's why there's this barbell of cash and then hedge funds,startups and illiquids-and that's what a lot of investors are starting to do,by the way.
As long as we don't get the Fed fundamentals,we are more at risk of not validating the higher asset prices.At some point,you have to hand off to investing in equipment and hiring.I still think the Fed is going to raise rates in September.They're going to focus on this,the loosest tightening the Fed has ever done.*
Will the ECB pull the plug on Greece? No,because no one wants to go down in history as having done it.My greatest worry is,we get an accident in that world.The chance that Greece is pushed out of the Euro-zone is quite material.The fundamentals all call for a stronger dollar.In the short term,a Greek exit will shock the market.Long-term,it doesn't matter much.Take equity exposure to Europe,but not euro currency exposure,Mr.El-Erian advised.*
Mohamed El-Erian was born in Cairo,Egypt.He was manager of the Harvard Endowment,then co-CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO with Bill Gross before they had a falling out.Eventually,Gross himself was fired by the company he co-founded and went over to Morgan Stanley.*
Morgan Stanley (MS),Allianz SE SP/ADR (AZSEY)

Upgraded and Under the Radar Firms

Katie Stockton of BTIG Research likes Google.The stock has underperformed.It is oversold.There's a pretty good risk-return profile from the technical standpoint.*
Stifel Nicolaus has raised eBay to a buy,with a 65.00 price target.They believe eBay is the real deal in ecommerce.*
Bernstein Research has raised United Technologies to a buy.They like the new CEO,Chief Financial Officer Gregory Hayes.*
Goldman Sachs has given Chipotle a 790.00 price target.It is cheap in proportion to its cash flow.*
Morgan Stanley has raised LaSalle Hotel to overweight.They raised its price target to 45.00 from 35.00.*
Don Wordell,CFA,Managing Director at RidgeWorth Investments,likes Mattel.The yield is very attractive compared to any of the bonds.Also,it's undervalued.
We like Tyco for the fundamental catalysts.They have a tremendous pipeline of deals in the near future.
A company called Tidewater has supply vessels running equipment and crews to offshore oil rigs.They have all new equipment,and utilisation and day rates are going to hold up better than most.They also pay a 3.5% dividend.I'm very,very comfortable that offshore drilling will remain strong,and this company is very,very attractive at these levels,Mr.Wordell concluded.*
Google(GOOG),United Technologies(UTX),Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG),Mattel(MAT),eBay(EBAY),Tyco International Plc(TYC),Tidewater Inc(TDW),LaSalle Hotel(LHO)

Voices and Trends in European Business

Northern Europe is gonna do just fine because the US will have strong growth,and they will do well off that,according to Joseph McAlinden,Chief Investment Officer at Catalpa Capital.People are gonna feel wealthier and spend,which is good for the world economy.The US economy,the stock market is the buy on the gold seam right now.
French consumer confidence fell in March on the stalled economy.
US durable goods orders were up more than forecast.US home values are at their highest level since 2007.
An EU report says the employment outlook is very bleak across Europe.
UK banks must raise 38 billion dollars to make up for a capital shortfall,the Bank of England says.
London remains the world's top financial centre,says the Global Financial Centres Index.
VTB has the most exposure to Cyprus of the Russian banks,according to Standard and Poor's.The EU says the Cypriot bank tax is not a template for future bailouts.
Credit Suisse is to buy Morgan Stanley's Europe wealth management business.Erricson is in talks to buy Microsoft's IPTV business.
The euro has traded below 1.28 for the first time since November.
German plant and machine orders were unchanged in February on weak Euro-zone demand.
Credit Suisse(CS),Microsoft(MSFT),Morgan Stanley(MS),Erricson(ERIC)

Author Lays Out China's Best Case Scenario

Commodities exhibit a one decade up,two decades down cycle,notes Ruchir Sharma,Managing Director,Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Team at Morgan Stanley Investment Funds.China is the 100 pound gorilla in the commodity marketplace.
A China slowdown is a principal part of the commodity slowdown thesis.The best case for China is 6-7% growth.It's quite a shock for those who are used to 7-8% growth.It's a very natural slowdown.At a per capita income of 6,000 dollars a year,all developing economies slow down.
China is systematically deploying its wealth,but their debt to GDP is close to 200%.The reason for their slowdown is,the number of people entering the labor force and moving to cities is slowing down.It's demographics.It's like Japan in the 1970s.
We are now in a post-China world.Look to the Philippines,Indonesia and Thailand.For the first time,the Philippines now have a stable political leadership intent on increasing the country's wealth,Mr.Sharma pointed out.
Ruchir Sharma,CFA,is the author of the book "Breakout Nations."A Newsweek columnist and contributor to The Wall Street Journal,he has a BA in Commerce from Shri Ram College of Commerce in Delhi.
Morgan Stanley(MS)

A Morgan Stanley Analysis

Henry McVey,Chief Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley,thinks Germany's in pretty good shape.The UK may be the next problem.There's tension between high leverage and sustaining growth in Europe.What's really a risk-free asset?The U.S. is gonna be somewhat of a safe haven.Treasuries haven't sold off,and the dollar has rallied.
Mr.McVey still thinks most of the emerging market currencies are a good bet.They've been owning some high yield growth stocks outside the U.S. such as Nestle.A lot of the most levered companies are pretty expensive right now.
I don't think the sovereign debt issue is going away,Mr.McVey said.It's a multi-year issue.It's tough medicine to bring down your leverage.It's the first time in the capital markets that Asian inflation exceeds that of the developed nations.There's more stress to come for the pound and the euro,Mr.McVey predicted.