Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Global Debt and the Risk to Capitalism

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee issued its interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon,deciding to leave rates unchanged for now,and anticipating only two rate hikes this year,rather than four.They are not actively considering negative interest rates,unlike the European Central Bank,which has just implemented them.*
Markets and central banks globally are beginning to realise that there are negatives to negative interest rates,responded Bill Gross of Janus Capital Management,portfolio manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund and co-founder of PIMCO.It's a more dovish Fed.The Fed is still way above the market.Treasuries are fully priced at these levels.The Fed is connected to the stock market,but I don't think they're responsive to rates being at zero.It's a negative for the finance industry,for pensioners and for savers.They can't earn as much as they should.*
I think,to a certain extent,capitalism is at risk.It doesn't break down,but at the margin,it's hindered and it's hampered.The long term effect basically hampers investment by institutions like insurance companies.*
I think the Fed has an historical sense that Fed Funds should be at 3 or 4%.The real problem is,the tremendous amount of debt in the global markets.When debt gets up to a substantial level,things can de-lever.It's debt that has come to the forefront the past several years in the global economy,and that's what we need to worry about.*
An economy can't grow very fast if wages can't grow more than .6%.I think TIPS are a decent value,to the extent the Fed will reach their 2% inflation target.*
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP),Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund;A (JUCAX)

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