Avoiding the New Mediocre:The IMF,Doha and the New Multilateralism

Madame Christine Lagarde,Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund,addressed the Atlantic Council in Washington on 9 April.She spoke about the "new mediocre" she feels the global economy is falling into for reasons including aging populations and falling productivity growth.Reversing that decline in developed markets takes improving access to finances for SMEs,small and medium-sized enterprises,which represent most of the employment.The same applies to China.In Japan and the euro area,there are too many tax disincentives for them.
In too many countries,legal inequities still exist preventing access by women to the labour market.There are potentially huge global gains to be had by trade reform and integration.Completion of the Doha Round could give an economic boost of a trillion dollars.
The Doha Round is a series of trade negotiations among the World Trade Organization membership.It aims to achieve major reform of the international trading system through the introduction of lower trade barriers and revised international trade rules.The negotiations were named after the WTO's Fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha,Qatar,where they officially began in November 2001.The Doha Ministerial Declaration that came out of the Conference set forth the mandate for the negotiations,including on agriculture,services and an intellectual property topic,which had already begun.
The ministers at the Fourth Ministerial Conference also agreed on how to address the problems developing countries face when implementing the current WTO agreements.A fundamental objective of the Doha Round is to improve the trading prospects of developing countries.
How to dispel this new mediocre that is lurking on the horizon? We can only win by working together,Madame Lagarde insisted.The challenge for policy makers is to combine the policies that create growth with those that boost tomorrow's prospects.If countries strengthen their banks,it will reinforce the global financial system.If they implement climate-friendly policies,it will benefit their people and lower the global level of emissions.There is simply no alternative to the new multilateralism.The emerging markets and developing countries must have a seat at the table.Virtually our entire membership agrees,and they all await ratification by the United States Congress-if only to assert US leadership to a major institution for global financial stability,enhancing cooperation with new institutions in Asia and other places,the integration of dynamic emerging markets into the global economy through:
1.Financing for development.
2.New,sustainable development goals.
3.Addressing climate change.
They all interlink in many ways.How can we contribute on the IMF's three core deliverables?
1.Financing:we recently gave 390 million euros to the Ebola-affected countries from a catastrophe and containment relief trust that was set up.
2.Policy advice and analysis such as on domestic resource mobilisation;the role of inequality;energy subsidy reforms;carbon taxation-the time is right to price it right.
3.Technical assistance and training,such as our Massive Online Open Courses,which range from debt sustainability analysis to removing energy subsidies.Success will require a recommitment to international cooperation.In conclusion,Madame Lagarde quoted Winston Churchill,"I never worry about action;only inaction."

East Asia:Facing the Missile Threat

The Atlantic Council recently brought together a number of thought leaders at its fourth annual Global Missile Defense Conference in Washington on 28 May.
We face a big threat and a small threat in East Asia,said David Gompert,RAND Corporation Adjunct Senior Fellow and former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence from 2009-10.North Korea is the small threat.I don't think North Korea will be suicidal with nuclear weapons,but would use them as their best option.Their reflex is to strike out when under severe pressure,so we cannot have confidence in adequate deterrence.
South Korea,Japan and the US are threatened by expansion of the short and medium range missile threat.This calls for a trilateral approach:an adequate,integrated trilateral missile defence.The US should hammer home there is little room for error in the adequacy of missile defence.
Both the US and South Korea agreed to the four d's:detect,disrupt,degrade and destroy.Japanese Prime Minister Abe appreciates the threat from North Korean missiles.That's why they're going from four to eight Aegis destroyers;the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle;upgrading of F-15s;procuring point defence for the 20-30 km range.*
China is the big problem.They believe in a minimal defence.China gets upset about any upgrade of defence in its area.
We do need a bigger rethink of information to enable us to make decisions before a crisis occurs.To defend our forces in the Pacific against China's short and medium range missiles is mind-boggling.China has too many upgrades that they haven't yet pursued.I worry less about the ICBMs than the expansion of the short and medium range arsenals.We need greater trilateral contingency planning.We need to help overcome political hurdles.
Taiwan needs to acquire an anti-access area denial strategy to deal with mines and submarines.*
North Korea has lots of artillery and rockets.Ballistic missiles could reach well into South Korea,but the aspect of Weapons of Mass Destruction is the greater concern.*
China's conventional ballistic and cruise missiles are the core of its power projection,added Randall Schriver,former Deputy Secretary of State for East Asia.*
We really don't know how useful and effective the new rail gun and laser technologies will be,so we can't rely on them to counter the threat,Patrick Cronin of the Center for a New American Security pointed out.*
The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan think tank that defines its mission as promoting constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic Community in meeting global challenges.It has ten regional centres.