Around a Wartorn Region:CENTCOM Commander Briefs Congress on the Strategic Roadmap

More than 200 military officers from 49 countries are working at US CENTCOM headquarters at McDill Air Force Base,Florida,CENTCOM commander General Joseph Votel,US Army,told the House Armed Services Committee on 27 February 2018:
We are grateful for,and largely depend upon,their partnership.*
In the course of the hearing,General Votel responded to a number of strategically important topics raised by the Members of Congress,mainly concerned with terrorism in South Asia and North Africa,as well as the malign role of Iran in the region.A classified session followed the open session.*
On Iran,General Votel noted that:
The increasing,not just quantity,but quality of their ballistic missiles,and the increasing export of these capabilities to other groups around the region.These weapons threaten to widen the conflict in Yemen,threatening our forces in Saudi Arabia,as well as our partners.They have sent coastal defence cruise missiles to the Bab el Mandeb Strait-some of them have been modified.We know these are not capabilities that the Houthi rebels in Yemen had.The presence of explosive boats,the increased presence of mines in this area are all very similar to the layered threats that Iran has posed to the Strait of Hormuz,and we hold them accountable for that.
Their continuing and changing power projection model-not only their own forces,but their proxies and partners that they are attempting to support around the region.We are helping Saudi Arabia to optimise their capabilities-many of which are from the US-and we are seeing some progress in that regard.*
On foreign fighters leaving following the massive defeats of ISIL in Iraq and Syria and going home to Turkey (900 fighters) and Saudi Arabia (1760 fighters):
They have experience and tactics that could be applied to other places.They're radicalised;so they have the ability to bring others on board with this.We have always attempted to isolate these areas and prevent the escape of these fighters,so they're either killed or captured where we take them on,and I think that we're successful in that.We do have some ability to interdict foreign fighters as they attempt to evacuate the areas.
Turkey has been absolutely vital to the campaign plan.We're keeping clear,open and professional lines of communication to Turkey as to what we're doing with other partners.*
Success in Afghanistan and in South Asia will require a strong relationship and the cooperation of Pakistan.I do have frequent and routine,very professional communications with my counterpart.We talk almost weekly.We meet frequently face-to-face.I can't characterise the relationship as trustful at this particular point.There is a lot of history there that has to be overcome;but what I would also tell you is,we are beginning to see positive indications.Through these communications,they're reporting to us some of the actions they are taking on the ground.There are positive indications that they are moving in the right direction.It does not yet equal the decisive action that we would like to see them take in turns of a strategic shift,but they are positive indicators,and it gives me hope that our approach is the right one.It gives me hope that we can restore this very important relationship.*
US strikes in Yemen have had a very significant impact on Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.Certainly it has impacted their ability to conduct external operations.It's gone to the areas where they have had sanctuary;it has continued to present them multiple dilemmas that they have had to deal with;so not only are they contending with our strikes,but they're also contending with partner operations that we work up with our Arab partners on the ground and our Yemeni partners on the ground.And this has become very,very effective.And I will tell you that we are extending that to ISIS in Yemen as well.That is not as well-developed as AQ is,but of course it is ISIS.We understand their ideology;we understand where they're going,and so we're concerned about them as well.*

Extremists in Decline:Pentagon Cites Losses by ISIL,al-Qaida

The tide is turning against the Islamist extremists of ISIL and al-Qaida,according to Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook,who briefed reporters on 19 December 2016.Over the weekend,the Libyan Government of National Accord announced the successful conclusion of the campaign to liberate the city of Sirte from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,Mr.Cook noted.It was the only city outside of Iraq and Syria under ISIL's control.US Africa Command carried out this mission with particular skill,especially limiting the risk of civilian casualties in carrying out airstrikes in Sirte,Mr.Cook pointed out.We will continue to keep a close eye on the remnants of ISIL in Libya and will continue to assist the GNA as appropriate going forward.*
In Iraq,Mr.Cook said,the Iraqi Security Forces continue to degrade ISIL in Mosul,where the ISF has cleared approximately 20% of the city.
In Syria,the Syrian Democratic Forces rebel group have reached the Euphrates River northwest of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa,which is important as the SDF try to isolate ISIL within Raqqa.Importantly,the SDF is continuing to attract Arab fighters for continuing the fight against ISIL.*
And finally,on the progress of counterterrorism in Afghansitan,we previously announced on October 23 that a precision airstrike near Kunar,Afghanistan killed Faruq al-Qatani,the al-Qaida emir for Eastern Afghanistan.The Department has now determined that the same airstrike killed two additional senior al-Qaida leaders:Bilal al-Utaybi,who was al-Qatani's deputy;and Abd al-Wahd al-Junabi,a senior al-Qaida explosives expert.All three were actively involved in the planning and carrying out of acts of terror inside and outside Afghanistan.The deaths of these three senior leaders will significantly disrupt the group's ability to threaten the US,our interests and our allies,and highlights our continuing commitment to the counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan.This strike is further evidence that those who seek to do us harm are not beyond our reach,Peter Cook concluded at the Pentagon on Monday.

Most US Troops Will Stay in Afghanistan,President Says - General Nicholson heeded

President Barack Obama said US troop levels in Afghanistan will be cut to 8400 from 9800 today and stay at 8400 through the end of his administration,not be reduced to 5500 by the end of 2016 as he had originally planned.The situation is still precarious,Mr.Obama explained,so it is in our national security interest,especially after all the blood and treasure we've invested over the years,that we give our Afghan partners the best chance to succeed.*
US Forces entered Afghanistan immediately following the 9-11 attacks.Today they implement both training of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces and counterterror operations in the Operation Freedom's Sentinel part of NATO's Resolute Support Mission.Other NATO Allies keep around 6,000 troops in Afghanistan for the training mission and say they will remain there.While the ANDSF still lack adequate aviation,intelligence and logistics,according to US Army General John Nicholson's 90-day review,the Taliban Islamist extremist militants continue to control swaths of the country in its north and its south and conduct suicide bombings in the country's cities,including the capital Kabul.Thus the President has accepted the recommendation of new NATO and US commander in Afghanistan General Nicholson to sustain a robust US presence there.Since the US entered the Afghan War in 2001,more than 2300 US troops have been killed in it.Last month,the President permitted the US cadre to expand its operations by directly hitting the Taliban with airstrikes again,not just al-Qaida and the Haqqani Network,and not just when US and partner forces are directly threatened or an Afghan position is in danger of being overrun.This new authority has already been used,a senior US official indicated.

ISIL Has New Leader as Key Battles Continue in Iraq

Fighting against ISIL in both Ramadi and the Beiji oil refinery continued on Wednesday,even as ISIL adjusts to a new leader.Sniper fire and booby traps,as well as suicide bombers,were hindering the advance of Iraqi counterterrorist forces into the city.Still,they have managed to retake positions near the city's centre.
They are trying to drive ISIL militants away from the residential areas and toward open areas where they will be an easier target,a spokesman for the CT forces said.The militants captured Ramadi,which is the capital of Anbar Province,two weeks ago,even digging tunnels between houses to enable their hit and run tactics.
At the same time,at the Beiji oil refinery,which is Iraq's largest,ISIL seized an important installation in the northern section of the facility Tuesday,but were driven out by Iraqi troops.They still have a foothold near the refinery's south gate,however,and Iraqi forces within the complex are calling for reinforcements.*
According to an Iraqi government source,ISIL has a new leader in the person of Abu Alaa Afri,who has at least temporarily replaced Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.Al-Baghdadi was seriously wounded in a US-led coalition airstrike on his truck convoy in March,incapacitating him.Afri,a former Iraqi physics teacher and a reputed Islamist intellectual,had served as an ISIL provincial coordinator,linking the senior leadership with the provincial emirs.Afri,now believed to be residing in Mosul,Iraq,was previously a member of al-Qaida and highly regarded by Osama bin Laden,who favoured him to head al-Qaida in Iraq,ISIL's precursor organisation.*
In 2006,US and Iraqi troops,along with tribal militias,waged a pitched battle against al-Qaida in Iraq and its allies in the Mujahideen Shura Council for control of Ramadi.Indeed,an Islamic State was declared by the Council in October 2006 and chose al-Baghdadi as emir.By early 2007,the IS had been all but driven out of Ramadi,at the cost of the lives of at least 78 US troops and many others being wounded.

Progress in Afghanistan,But Grave Concerns Remain

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday,General John Campbell,US Army,Operations Commander for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan,painted an optimistic picture of Afghanistan today after nearly 14 years of assistance from Western nations,while also taking note of challenges that remain.One area of concern is the timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.Under the current plan,about 10,000 American soldiers will be present in 2015,but will go down to 5,000 for 2016,and withdraw entirely by early 2017.Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has requested us and NATO to show some flexibility,General Campbell said.Both Counterterrorism and Train,Advise and Assist missions are complementary.President Obama has granted us some flexibility,enabling us to continue the TAA mission beyond 1 January.*
Most of the options I'm discussing with my senior leadership include allowing more flexibility on glide slope,allowing more flexibility on locations.None of my options allow bumping troop strength up to 20,000.We currently have 9,800 US-combined with NATO,12,900 troops.There are several special operations forces camps.I think you have to continue to keep the pressure on al-Qaida.Our counterterror capability is quite good.*
I have no doubt in my mind the Afghans have the capability to do what they need to do.It's just a confidence issue.But if we continue to withdraw at the rate we are today,they will feel abandoned.President Ghani has requested continued help with logisitics,intelligence and close air support.*
The Afghan National Security Forces have 352,000 members.The army and police have good cross-pillar cooperation.
In the last 45-60 days,I've seen more Afghan-Pakistani cooperation than I've ever seen before.There's more cooperation between the Afghan border police and the Pakistani Frontier Corps.*
Force protection for both our troops and contractors is utmost on my mind.Our green-on-blue incidents have gone way,way down,but we'll continue to look very,very hard at that.
So far,the nascent ISIL is more a rebranding of a few Taliban,but we'e still taking this potential threat,with its dangerous rhetoric and ideology,very,very seriously.President Ghani is quite concerned about ISIL.I've made it a priority of information for my forces,and we'll continue to work that hard.There is some talk of ISIL being present in the universities.*
Kabul is the fifth-fastest growing city in the world today,General Campbell noted.He had a chart displayed for the Senators which showed gains in Afghan literacy,cellphone use,roadbuilding and girls' education in recent years.

Asian Voices 2-plus a Middle East Moment

The focus,perhaps,should be more on the job market in China,said Donna Kwok,Greater China Economist at HSBC Global Research.Domestic consumption and social stability could be hurt by it.
We think the downturn in China is driven by one thing:external demand,given the downturn in Europe and sluggish growth in the US.We continue to see incremental steps to liberalisation in the next few years.Redistribution of workers is more important to domestic demand in China than absolute numbers of workers.
Mark Konyn,CEO of Cathay Canning Asset Management,notes that in Europe,we're starting to see contraction across the continent,and that's worrying.That could get worse.Spain hasn't been able to work its way through the regional problems.
I think there'll be more asset purchasing.Markets are positioning for more stimulus.We're expecting to see more growth in the second half of the year.I would argue it's more cyclical than waiting for stimulus in China.
In the Middle East,shock waves continue to ripple through the region from the deadly rocket attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi,Libya.Senator John McCain,R-Arizona,said I see it as a newly-elected government that is having the growing pains that any government would have.There are weapons everywhere in Libya, and there are jihadists that have come into the country and continue to come on.These are very dangerous people trying to hijack the revolution.
The attack was done by people who were obviously Muslim extremists.We all should be worried about al-Qaida.The best way to help Libya is to help them train their army and with their intelligence capability.I'm confident we can do that.I cannot be more proud of Ambassador Chris Stevens,the senator had emotionally said of his friend,US Ambassador J.Christopher Stevens,who with three colleagues was killed Tuesday in the organised Benghazi assault by perhaps two dozen militants on the eleventh anniversary of 9-11.