The Fed's Rate Hike:What Was Behind It and What It Means

The Federal Reserve announced today that it is hiking the Fed Funds Rate,its iconic interest rate,by 0.25%.*
This action marks the end of an extraordinary seven-year period during which the Fed Funds Rate was held near zero,said Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at a post-announcement press conference.It reflects the Open Market Committee's confidence that the economy will continue to strengthen.The Committee judged that a modest increase in the FFR target is now appropriate.The labour market has clearly shown continued improvement.Overall,the Committee sees the risk to both the labour market and economic growth as being balanced.
Low energy prices and the appreciation of the dollar have weighed on inflation.Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.In considering future policy decisions,we will carefully monitor progress towards our 2% inflation goal.The limit on inflation is due to transitory factors which we expect to slacken over time.An abrupt tightening could increase the risk of pushing the overheated economy into recession.*
It's important not to overblow the significance of this first move-it's only a quarter of a percent.The policy we judge to be accommodative.I continue to judge there is slack in the economy:the depressed level of labour participation and the high level of part-time employment.With rates close to zero,we have less room to respond to negative shocks.If we do not begin to slightly reduce the amount of accommodation,the odds are good the economy would overshoot our goals.
It doesn't mean we need to see inflation reach 2% before we move again.I'm not going to give you a simple formula for when we would move again.It could be on a variety of different forms of evidence,but I don't want to give a simple benchmark.We do expect inflation to be moving up,but we don't expect it to reach 2%.
All oil prices need to do for us to reach our inflation goal is stabilise.I certainly grant that we've seen a number of shocks,but we don't expect them to drop much lower;but to stabilise.Market expectations are for oil to stabilise for awhile and then move up.*
Were there an unexpected,persistent change in financial market conditions,we would need to take them into account.I do not think that expansions die of old age,but the economy does get hit by shocks,and there are significant odds that the economy hits some unforeseen shock that sends it into recession,and of course we would respond.Some European central banks have cut their overnight lending rates;we could study taking the overnight rates into negative territory.This is something we have contemplated-our options.It would be nice to have a buffer in the FFR,to have some ability to respond.We have a far more resilient financial system now than we had before the financial crisis,but we will be evaluating this carefully.*
For average Americans,the Fed's decision reflects our confidence in the US economy.We see an economy that is on the path of sustainable improvement.I hope they will take this to mean that conditions will continue to strengthen and job prospects will be good.Some consumer borrowing rates,some credit card rates (and adjustable rate mortgage and small business loan rates) may move up slightly.
Gradual rate hikes does not mean mechanical,evenly spaced hikes.We will be data-dependent,and as the conditions evolve,we will take them into account.*
We are constantly monitoring foreign economic developments;we understand that our fates are linked.We've made a commitment to the emerging market policy makers that we will communicate as clearly as we can to avoid spillover to the emerging markets.Our economy doing well is encouraging to other economies around the globe.We have taken care to avoid unnecessary negative spillover to the emerging markets,Fed chair Janet Yellen told the reporters.*
In sum,the Fed judges that the US economy is doing so well,they need to slow it down it a bit,so it doesn't overheat into high inflation and another recession.The way they do that is by raising the Fed Funds Rate,which raises the rates on certain consumer loans such as credit card balances and adjustable rate mortgages.

Goldman Sachs and the Global Markets

We're in a better part of the cycle right now,said Gary Cohn,President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs.Our results in 2012 were a direct reflection of what our customers needed and wanted to do,and we've been there to facilitate that.We have adapted our business to really accommodate and facilitate our customers' needs.
We are a fiduciary for our shareholders.We increased our dividend two times in 2012.
I think we've got our compensation right for our people.We're in a very competitive industry and the capital we have is human capital.The average 2012 pay was about 400k.
As I look out at 2013,I feel that we're in a relatively good position in terms of head count.We look at global GDP.If we see an upward move,that will stimulate our customers and we will hire people to serve them.
The zero interest rate policy will end at some point and that will be positive for our business.I'm fairly bullish about global stock markets.With blue chip stocks,you're long inflation and long global growth.
We can't be the buyer of last resort of fixed income.Somebody has to buy it.The zero interest rate policy clearly drives down currency values.
I think a sudden or dramatic backup in rates would be shocking to the market.I'm not sure that capital can come back into the market quick enough.Just because it's a bond doesn't mean it doesn't go down.Bond prices go down as interest rates go up.
Goldman Sachs(GS)

Asset Manager:Fairly Good News Ahead-and what limits it

I think we're going into a fairly good news economy,said Christian Thwaites,CEO of Sentinel Investments.The regional Federal Reserve Banks reported gains;exports and imports look good.It's gonna be difficult to get beyond 2.5-3% growth,however,because the government is a drag on the economy.
Manufacturing has posted some very impressive productivity numbers.That's the way employers would rather grow,than by hiring more people.The employment picture is only gonna improve very,very gradually.
The inflation number is not a problem.Inflation in China is not down to a point they are comfortable with.There is definitely a very robust consumption story from China.
It's a more subdued consumer recovery in the U.S.Play it carefully.Choose very good,solid,well-managed consumer discretionary companies if that's where you're going to go.You're only going to see 3-5% growth,rather than the 7-8% you saw during past recoveries,Mr.Thwaites noted.
Since 1934,Sentinel Investments has grown to manage more than 18 billion dollars in mutual fund and institutional accounts.As a provider of core,back to basics strategies,standing the tests of time is their criterion for success.

China's European Concerns

According to David Gosset,Director of the China Europe International Business School,you have a lot of worries in China about the European Union and Euro-zone.China wants them to succeed in order to counterbalance the U.S.
The big story for the business world for the next 5-10 years is the Chinese growth in consumer demand,which will shape global business.The EU has failed to lift restrictions on China,damaging its credibility in the Asian powerhouse.Europe has joined the U.S. in criticising China's failure to allow its currency to appreciate enough,resulting in trade imbalances.
On Saturday,December 25,China made a surprise hike in interest rates to cool off growth and prevent inflation.The move had only a brief,minor effect on global markets,if any-perhaps restraining them a bit.
The China Europe International Business School is located in Shanghai.Granting MBA degrees,it was officially established as an independent business school in 1994.

Indonesia and East Asia

Indonesia's bonds are selling well,based on the country's economic growth and market access.Its longer term bonds won't be affected even if interest rates are raised.Q2 growth was 6.2,up from 5.7.They're optimistic of reaching 6.3% in 2011.The main driver of August inflation was electricity rates.They're confident of about 5% inflation by maintaining food stocks and so on.
They think inflation is manageable,once food prices can be stabilized.Indonesia favors growth over inflation worries.They continue to see Asia as the growth market:China,Korea and other ASEAN neighbors and India-also Russia and the Middle East as new markets.The East Asia region,including Australia and New Zealand,is growing together.It's a complementary growth pattern based on agreements,Indonesia's trade minister,Mari Pangesta,pointed out.

Inflation in China

Chinese consumer prices eased in July,the National Bureau of Statistics reported.Food costs didn't rise as much as they had previously.The Consumer Price Index rose 6.3 year over year,while food rose 14.4-down from 17.3 in June.The overall CPI had declined from 7.1 in June,and was the lowest it had been in nearly a year.In contrast,the Producer Price Index was up 16 in July,probably reflecting raw materials costs to businesses in China.The Chinese economy is expected to grow 8-10% in 2008.